Peace Process, Power Balance in Middle East

The action taken by the President of the United States Barack Obama to open the door of discussion between Washington and Damsyik can be deemed as a manifestation of his open attitude toward the Islamic world. This is what Obama promised when he spoke in Cairo on 4 June 2008. His Cairo speech is historical because it is considered as the starting point from which Washington opened up the room for negotiation to all Islamic countries, regardless they are friends of foes.

Restoration of Ties
The diplomatic ties between these two countries have broken since the assassination of the Prime Minister of Lebanon, Rafik Hariri in 2005, which was allegedly masterminded by Syria. The restoration of the ties will culminate at the appointment of the new US ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford. The appointment is only pending approval from the US Senate.

It is noteworthy that since the incident in 2005, Washington had recalled its ambassador in Damsyik, until today. Senator John Kerry, the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations only visited to Syria last week and had an opportunity to discuss with President Bashar al-Assad about bilateral relations and peace process in Middle East. It is so evident that the relations between the US and Syria is moving toward a better path.

Objections Raised
Washington's implicit agenda to befriend Damsyik is used as a catalyst for stability in Middle East, especially in relation to issues involving Iran. The US hopes to isolate Teheran and in turn weaken Hamas fighters in Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Obama's strategy to be friendly to Damsyik received objections especially from the Republican Party and Israel. They object for the reason that Damsyik still provides assistance to Hezbollah group, which is defined by Washington as a terrorist group.

Groups doubtful of Damsyik got an opportunity they were waiting for when the President of Israel, Shimon Peres, accused Syria of having provided Scud missiles to Hezbollah. Peres made the accusation when he visited to Paris last week, though it could not be proved with solid evidence.

It is no longer a secret that Damsyik indeed sympathizes Hezbollah by providing weapons, but it has never provided Hezbollah long-range missiles. If the accusation is true, then the fact that Hezbollah possesses Scud missiles could alter the power balance, especially between Lebanon, Iran, Palestine and Israel.

Considering Hezbollah was capable to defeat the troops of the Israeli regime in 2006 without Scud, with the more accurate long-range missiles, Hezbollah would definitely be capable of giving an impact as terrific as the scenario wherein Iran presumably possesses nuclear arms.

Syria indeed has the North Korean-made missiles, Scud D, which can strike a target 700 km away. If it is launched from Lebanon, Scud D can strike Jerusalem as well as Tel Aviv. In addition to its accuracy in hitting the target, Scud D also has good precision. Therefore important targets such as Dimona nuclear plant which is said to be the pulse of Israel's nuclear arsenal can be easily destroyed. Similarly, other targets such as Ben-Gurion airport can also be struck easily with Scud D.

Insincere Israeli Attitude
Although Peres's allegation cannot be verified yet, the implication is already felt and the first will probably be that the Senate would not approve the appointment of new ambassador to Damsyik. If the accusation is true, then they obviously have violated the Resolution 1701 of the United Nations Security Council intended to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah.

However, if we examine carefully, to deliver Scud to Lebanon is a rather difficult task. The southern part of the country is a Hezbollah-influenced area monitored by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). The Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF) also participates in the peacekeeping team through the Malaysian battalion (Malbatt).

Many analysts are of the view that the actual motive behind Tel Aviv's wild allegation was to fail the endeavor undertaken by Obama administration to start a new peace process in Middle East. It is not exaggerating if we say White House has started to get bored with Benjamin Netanyahu's insincere attitude in the efforts of seeking solution.

Netanyahu's recent announcement of constructing new illegal Jewish settlements in Jerusalem was akin to a slap to Obama's ongoing effort to assure the Islamic world that there would not be new illegal settlement during his tenure as the president.

There are rumors saying that White House has prepared a new plan for peace in Middle East, which clearly outlines the concept of two sovereign countries -- Palestine and Israel. To fail the latest effort, Tel Aviv has resorted to the factor of Hezbollah as a shortcut to undermine the authority of Obama administration when facing the issues of Middle East.

Tel Aviv dared to take such an approach as Washington itself refuses to acknowledge Hezbollah as a legitimate representative of the Lebanese people.

Presence of Hezbollah Parliamentarians
We should note that the presence of Hezbollah parliamentarians formed a main factor for the establishment of a Unity Government under Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Similar situation happens in Gaza Strip where Hamas is defined as a terrorist group while it is also a legitimate government.

But if Peres's allegation is true, for sure it would not only alter the political landscape in Middle East, it would also bring impacts to the region of Middle East. Hezbollah equiped with Scud would definitely countervail the arrogance of the Israeli regime.

Tel Aviv will be more careful in issuing threat to destroy Iran's nuclear plant like what it did on Syria in 2007. Likewise, it will be more restrained with its arbitrary actions against the Palestinians. It is not overboard to assume that Hezbollah equipped with Scud will actually speed up the peace process in Middle East, instead of retarding it as alleged by some quarters.

Israeli Provocations Leading To Fresh Middle East War

Lebanon fears that the ever-increasing Israeli aggression in the region could lead to a fresh war. Going by the Israeli attitude toward Lebanon--its activities, airspace violations, and the threatening posture it has adopted toward its neighbor--Israeli Prime Minister Saad Hariri has expressed grave concern and he appears to be justified in doing so.

Continued Israeli Aggression
The international community is fully aware of the Israel's attitude toward its neighbors like Arab countries and Iran. It is, however, a different mater that those who targeted Iran under various pretexts, imposing sanctions on Iran, do not see anything wrong in the continued Israeli aggression. They term Israeli aggression the right to self-defense and continue to back it. It was due to this patronage that at times Israel invaded Iraq's nuclear facilities, and at others indulged in aggressive activities against Lebanon and Syria. It carried out and extended threats to Arab countries. It also threatened Iran that it would carry out preemptive attacks against its nuclear facilities.
As far as Syria and Lebanon are concerned, Israel's disputes with the two countries are known to the world. Israel targeted innocent civilians during the 2006 war; the wounds of that war are yet to heal. At the same time, Hezbollah made Israel bite the dust during the same war, the pain of which continues in Israel even to this day. It was for the first time in Israel's history that Hezbollah captured two of its soldiers while violating the borders that led to a war with Lebanon. In that war, Israel had to face a shameful defeat, and its top military officers had to admit that Israel has suffered heavy losses in the war. Despite it's all-out efforts and killings of innocent Lebanese citizens, Israel failed to get its captured soldiers released.

Increasing Popularity of Hezbollah
Ever since, Israel's heart continues to ache with the defeat it had faced. It has even failed to reduce the Hezbollah's might, and the ever-increasing popularity of Hezbollah in the Islamic world had added to Israel's woes and disturbance. Clearly, Israel finds it difficult to bear with any organization that poses a serious threat to the Israeli aggressive attitude, and its very existence, and which has the courage and strength to counter Israeli terrorism.
The mischief that Israel is indulging in against Lebanon cannot be ignored and the concern expressed by Prime Minister Saad Hariri is fully justified. He alleges that Israeli fighter planes are violating Lebanon's airspace, because of which he fears that such violations may lead to yet another war with Israel. He alleges that for the last two months, Israeli fighter planes have constantly been violating its airspace and these violations are on the rise. He maintains that Lebanon stands united, and that in the event of war with Israel, Hezbollah would support Lebanon.
It is worth a mention that Hezbollah enjoys huge popularity in Lebanon now, but prior to the 2006 war, relations between Hezbollah and the government were strained. When the Israeli Army began to target innocent citizens, Hezbollah bravely fought Israel and made it to taste defeat. Even the Government of Lebanon had commended and supported the action by Hezbollah. It even had rejected the stand the United States and the European community had adopted against Hezbollah. It is worth noting that the United States and its stooges take Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.

Imposing Fresh War on Lebanon
The current scenario is that while a war of words is on between Israel and Syria and both of them are making strong statements against each other, Israeli fighter planes, by carrying out violations of Lebanese airspace, are hinting of imposing a fresh war on Lebanon. There is no need to give details of the threats that Israel has been extending to Iran for the past some time.
Yet, all these issues are pushing the Middle East to a war that may not only destroy peace in the region but also cause huge loss of life and property. Even Israeli and Syrian media are hinting that a fresh war is about to begin.

Demand of Situation
Both the United States and Europe are fully aware of the situation, but the two self-styled keepers of world peace are silent. They may, perhaps, open their lips only when Israel indulges in mischief mongering. The history of the United Nations and the United States and its allies proves this contention. The silence that they have adopted against Israel further proves that Israel enjoys tacit support for its aggressive posture and violation of Lebanese airspace.
By hinting that Hezbollah would support the government, Saad Hariri has clearly indicated that should Israel attempt to impose yet another war on Lebanon, the history of 2006 would be repeated. Yet, the concern expressed by Hariri on the current situation demands that the United Nations should strive that the Middle East is saved of yet another war. The UN should at least warn Israel in strong terms that it should stop provocations against Lebanon or Syria, and not indulge in violation of Lebanese air space.