Saturday, April 3, 2010

ASEAN 10 Plus 4 Framework

Ever since China began to open up to the outside world and carried out its reform, China has followed the path of an open-end regionalism. Such open-end regionalism can allow China to take the lead to establish the ideological basis of regional platforms. What open-end regionalism stresses is the inclusive of regional organizations. Such regionalism can be reflected on China's relationship with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries.

After the end of the Cold War, the relationship between China and ASEAN is a most successful case in all regional organizations. The relationship between China and ASEAN has also led to two other countries in Northeast Asia, namely Japan and South Korea to establish closer relationship with the ASEAN countries.

Open Process Evolution
How can G2 expand the basis of its own system? It will be an open process evolution. During this evolution, G2 may come out with different organizational structure. However, for effectiveness and convenience, G2 may also wish to use the ASEAN platform to develop the G2 structure. In other words, ASEAN can indeed expand its open-end regionalism to China-US relationship.

There are many reasons why ASEAN can become an interactive platform for G2. First of all, ASEAN has already formed its ASEAN "10 +1" mechanism. Built on this base, ASEAN now has the ASEAN "10+3" (ASEAN plus China, Japan, South Korea) framework. Now, the United States has openly said that it wants to "come back" (return to Southeast Asia). This means that ASEAN can come out with another "10+1" mechanism (ASEAN plus US) framework to include the United States.

Developing Enough Momentum
It is not difficult for the ASEAN "10+3 mechanism to extend and become an ASEAN "10+4" framework. During the initial stage, the United States may be reluctant to buy this concept. However, with East Asia gradually becoming the center of the world economy, the United States will also gradually develop enough momentum to enter this ASEAN "10+4" mechanism. The ASEAN-China Free Trade Area has already entered into force.
After a period of trial run, the ties between ASEAN and China will further be strengthened. This will give the United States great competitive challenge in the East Asian region. If the United States does not want to be marginalized in this region, the United States must make effort to institutionalize its presence in the Southeast Asian region.

Both ASEAN and Northeast Asian countries are facing a reality that the United States was here in the past; the United States is here now and the United States will also be here in the future. The importance of the United States to Southeast Asia (regardless if it is from economic or strategic perspective) is obvious. It is with good and great reason that the ASEAN countries would want to earnestly "invite" the United States to come back to Southeast Asia. In Northeastern Asia, Japan has proposed to establish a more equal relationship with the United States. If ASEAN does not consider the US factor, then the concept of an East Asian Community will be difficult to achieve.

US Shift Toward East Asia
East Asian regionalism is inclusive, which means it can include the United States. In the same token, if East Asian countries have recognized the existence of the United States, or to use the words of realism, there is no ability for the region to exclude the United States, they would have to consider how to "digest" the United States. It is like the US engagement policy on China with the purpose to "digest" China.
In fact, as the US focus begins to shift toward East Asia, the United States has more and more like an East Asian country. In such a case, the United States must be integrated into the Asian economic and security mechanism. The more the United States is excluded from this region, the more insecurity East Asian countries can become. The reason is very simple. This is because the more the region wants to exclude the United States, the more the United States will have the psychological fear of not becoming part of the same. The United States might find whatever means they can use to get involved in this region then.

Providing Economic Platform
First and foremost the proposed ASEAN "10+4" mechanism is an economic platform. In this regard, interaction on economic issues within such a platform is easier to carry out. Compared with other aspects of interaction, economic interaction is often not a zero-sum game. Economic interaction platform can even result in having positive effect on political interaction. At this moment, between China and the United States, these two countries face many trade disputes.

On the surface, although the China-US bilateral trade disputes are trade matters between the two countries, to a great degree, such trade disputes involve the whole East Asia's trade relationship with the United States. This is especially manifested in the aspects of the US trade deficit with China. It is difficult for regional countries to explain China's trade relation with the United States if we do not consider China's trade relation with other East Asian countries. If the US economic mechanisms can be integrated into the East Asian region, when the United States considers its economic interest, its economic concern will not so easily be politicized as what has happened now.

Possible Positive Impact
Economic integration will also bring positive impact to the ultimate security issue. The security issue between China and the United States is not just the problem between the two countries; it is also the security issue of the entire Asia. If China and the United States can, based on the proposed ASEAN "10+4" mechanism, to also nurture military confidence and build up a security cooperation mechanism, such security cooperation mechanism will allow peace in Asia to prevail and be protected, it will also provide solid foundation for global security.

The proposed ASEAN "10+4" mechanism itself can be an open end mechanism. Based on such principle, this mechanism can be expanded to include more relevant countries. It will be the ASEAN "10+4" formula.

Friday, April 2, 2010

Withdrawal of US Forces From Afghanistan May Put Pakistan at Risk

The tragedy of the Pakistani rulers and leaders is that while in power they say something and after being ousted from power they go abroad and their rhetoric undergoes a change. When Benazir Bhutto was the prime minister, she often issued "anti-India" statements and like her father, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, she had been harping on the Kashmir issue.
While in power she never uttered a world against hardliners and fanatic elements that dominated the whole of Pakistan. After losing power, she lived abroad on deportation. She would tell the media in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Dubai that normalization of relations between India and Pakistan was extremely imperative for peace in South Asia. Prior to the last elections in Pakistan when she returned home, she addressed foreign journalists and said she was extremely critical of militants, describing them as fatal for the region.

Present Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, during his foreign tours, made similar statements against the Taliban and other extremists. But when back in his country, he gives "anti-India" statements and blames India for terrorist activities and gives a clean chit to the main conspirator of the Mumbai attack, Hafiz Mohammad Saeed.

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is the only Pakistani ruler who perceived the ground realities and took practical steps to improve relations between India and Pakistan and invited former Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee to Lahore. A resolve was taken to settle the Kashmir problem and other bilateral issues through talks. But Musharraf, who was the Pakistani Army chief, started the Kargil war and upset the peace efforts.

Support to Militant Organizations
Former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf captured power through a military coup. He instigated the Taliban government in Afghanistan and extended patronage to Al-Qa'ida and other anti-India organizations during his term as Pakistan president. The attacks on the Jammu and Kashmir legislative assembly and the Indian Parliament were carried out during his term.

The Pakistani intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), extended full support to militant organizations and the Taliban in Afghanistan were provided directions by the Pakistani military officers. Then, Musharraf's intention was to achieve access to the Middle East via Afghanistan. Yet, his game was spoiled due to the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington. He was constrained to join the global war on terror when Bush reprimanded him. Under the UN pressure, he had to rein in militant outfits. But, even thereafter, Musharraf continued to play double games.

While the ISI and the Pakistani military bolstered the Taliban, organizations such as the Lashkar-e-Taiyiba went on with their activities by changing their names. Musharraf remained in a mode of denial of the existence of militant training camps on the Pakistani soil and the infiltration along the border with India, but simultaneously went ahead with bolstering militants. So far so, Musharraf received US aid to the tune of billions of dollars. It was during his term that the leaders of the United States and other countries of the world termed Pakistan as a nursery of terrorism.
Change of Power in Pakistan
Finally, in the wake of change in power in Pakistan, Musharraf had to flee to the United Kingdom and now the possibility of his return to Pakistan is ruled out. After meeting journalists in foreign countries, Musharraf has now realized the stark reality and in a statement in Washington recently, he said, "President Obama Barack administration has reportedly planned to withdraw forces from Afghanistan within a year but there is no truth in that.
For peace and stability in the region it is imperative to defeat the Taliban and the continued presence of the US forces is extremely essential to crush the Taliban there." It is the first time that Musharraf has spoken the right thing in no uncertain terms.

Taliban suicide attacks in Afghanistan are causing huge loss of life and property. If the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces withdraw from Afghanistan without the elimination of the Taliban and Al-Qa'ida, the very survival of Pakistan and Afghanistan will be jeopardized and peace and stability in the region will be shattered, thereby creating a serious threat to the whole world.

Malaysia Launches National Anti-Trafficking in Persons Action Plan

Home Affairs Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin said the government wanted to launch the Five-Year National Anti-Trafficking in Persons Action Plan to show the international community of Malaysia's determination to combat human trafficking activities and to eliminate Malaysia's negative image as a transit point for international human trafficking activities.

Curbing Human Trafficking Activities
He said that a cross ministerial National Anti-Trafficking in Persons Council led by the Home Affairs Ministry has been formed to carry out a five-year action plan to curb human trafficking activities in the country. This National Anti-Trafficking in Persons Council and the five-year antihuman trafficking action plan were launched on 31 March to seriously combat and eliminate all kinds of human trafficking activities in Malaysia.

Home Affairs Minister Hishammuddin also disclosed that when Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib visits the United States in April, Najib would also meet with the relevant authority in the US Government in Washington, DC to discuss how Malaysia could help to curb this global human trafficking problem. Hishammuddin said that Malaysia would use all available resources to prevent trafficking in persons activities to happen in the region.

Nine Strategic Goals
The national action plan against human trafficking includes nine strategic goals and nine implementation plan, and a comprehensive summary of all areas of combat operations against trafficking in persons. The government will periodically review the plan from time to time to ensure that all officials tasked with the jobs can effectively perform their duties.

The National Anti-Trafficking in Persons Action Plan includes the following nine strategic objectives:
1. To strengthen laws to enhance the power of the anti-human trafficking enforcement authority.
2. To implement coordination and cooperation of the various law enforcement agencies.
3. To raise public awareness on trafficking in persons activities through education programs.
4. To work with non-governmental organizations and provide victims with protection complied with international standards.
5. To combat foreign labor trafficking activities.
6. To provide training for government officials who participate in the implementation of the Anti-Trafficking in Persons Act of 2007.

7. To enhance anti-trafficking information management in government departments.
8. To establish local and international anti-trafficking in persons partnerships.
9. To strengthen law enforcement on trafficking in persons.