Nationalist Campaign in Thailand

An astrologer warns the Thai Prime Minister of a coup if house not dissolved. Later it splashed, "Chaiyasit Ridicules Army, 'No Guts'" and said under the headline, "Former Supreme Commander General Chaiyasit Chinnawat states that the military will have to be involved in peacekeeping if the government enforces the security law. The government should be questioned whether it has justifiable cause to enforce this law, since it might be a precondition for a coup if the incident gets out of hand.
However, General Chaiyasit says that deep down in his heart he believes that the incumbent armed forces leaders will not stage a coup because they are on the same side as the administration and therefore they see no reason to stage a coup or, to put it bluntly, they have no guts to stage a coup."
Political Discourse
The aforementioned mentality of both the stargazer and the former supreme commander are trapped in a vicious circle. In other words, their words are a "political discourse in an underdeveloped form," which sees a coup as an option or alternative solution for Thailand's political problem.
One will not try one's best to find any other solution if one thinks that a coup is an option or an alternative, or if one thinks that house dissolution or resignation from office are the last options in politics and, therefore, fails to consider the possibility of a coup as an option or solution.
Volatile Situation
Meanwhile, someone in the incumbent administration might argue that the anti-government group tries to launch a big protest rally in a bid to create a precondition or a precarious, volatile situation that leads to turmoil and riots, which will in turn trigger a coup, and therefore the government has to plead with the people to refrain from joining the protest rally on the 19th September 2009.
The government should not plead to the people to refrain from joining the protest rally by claiming that the rally shows signs of causing turmoil, because all big rallies always cause turmoil. The only question is whether the turmoil goes beyond bounds. This must be left to the people to decide. The government should only ask to know the reason and demand of the rally and when it does, it should explain whether it can satisfy the demand or not and why it can or cannot. The rest is up to the people to assess.
Sathit Wong-nongtoei, minister attached to the prime minister's office, proposed the "Thai Samakkhi Thai Khemkaeng" (United Thai - Strong Thai) campaign. He stated: "In the campaign, each province is assigned to rally people to come out and express the Thai patriotic feeling. The government, in cooperation with various sectors, will host the event and activities that communicates Thai unity, without focusing on a person, but focusing on the nation. The campaign will be launched on 20 September and continues to 4 December."
The campaign is launched at a most inopportune time, which makes it look as if the government is trying to give as good as it get and counter the red-shirted group's political rally. It is tantamount to pushing two groups of people to clash with each other. In addition, it arouses bad feelings towards the administration because, by claiming that the campaign is launched in a bid to allow people to express their patriotic feeling during the period, Sathit seems to imply that the red-shirted group is unpatriotic, does not care for unity. In other words, those who do not agree with Sathit are unpatriotic and do not care for national unity. This policy is a serious misstep because it shows that the administration is launching a psychological warfare against those who protest against it.
Legitimate Act
The incumbent administration should allow the people to stage a rally, a right which is endorsed by Section 63 of the Charter. By enforcing the security law, the government already has an instrument in its hand to easily contain the situation. If the government will proceed clearly from the lighter to the harsher steps and closely reports through the media every step of the way when it has to use force to disperse the rally, in case that the rally escalates beyond the limit of the law and disrupts peace, the people will understand the necessity of the government's action and the government's action will be regarded as a legitimate act to keep peace.
In addition to this, there is another worrying issue. If the rally protracts until 21 September, when the rubber sapling case will be ruled, and more people are rallied out to show support, it will be a serious warning signal that two groups of people, the red-shirted and the blue-shirted groups, although they appear to be enemies, will jointly benefit from a bloody riot and it will also reflects the same old mentality that is mired in a "vicious circle" of coups after coups.

Invoking Thailand Internal Security Act

Many surveys in fact have clearly reflected the same thing. The latest one by the Assumption University's Academic Network for Community Happiness Observation and Research shows that 61.4 per cent of respondents believe Thai society will be peaceful if former Prime Minister Thaksin Chinnawat stops his political movements. Just 38.6 per cent think otherwise. The survey was conducted among 1,292 families in 17 provinces across the country on 29 August.
Survey Findings
The survey also finds that Thais' happiness index soared to 7.18 in August, up from 5.92 in July. The findings, however, reflect that political climate and the unrest in deep South have weighed heavily in the hearts of the respondents. Up to 53.1 per cent of the respondents said they agreed a major red-shirt rally initially scheduled on 30 August should be postponed.
Approximately 36.8 per cent others disagreed. As many as 47.4 per cent of those polled said the incumbent administration should be allowed to stay on in office and work.
According to the Suan Dusit Poll, 52.48 per cent of 1,137 respondents in Bangkok and its adjacent province believe the rally postponement is just a political game. Some 27.59 per cent say the rally, even postponed, makes them worried.
About 30.27 per cent wish to see a peaceful rally, if the rally will have to take place. Up to 34.9 per cent urge the government and red-shirt folks to prioritize public order.
All the survey findings suggest that the majority of people do not agree with red-shirt folks and the Phuea Thai Party. The opposition party, in particular, has been pressuring Prime Minister Aphisit Wetchachiwa to lift the Internal Security Act saying that the imposition of such law hinders their scheduled rally. According to the Suan Dusit Poll, up to 76 per cent of Bangkok residents support Aphisit's decision to invoke in the Internal Security Act. Just nine per cent others are against the decision.
Eradicating Violence
It may sound convincing to say that invoking the Internal Security Act for the purpose of preventing or stopping violence will significantly revive the Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC). Its powerful role has otherwise been fading since the war against the Communist Party of Thailand ended. If the ISOC is once again actively powerful, so is the military.
However, one should take into account as to whether general laws, not the special one like Internal Security Act, are enough to handle the seizure of the Government House, the unlawful occupation of airports, or Songkran riots.
Do not believe in a claim that the Internal Security Act will give the government the power to ban a rally, arrest people or send them to re-education camp without a court order. Such claim is not true. Under the Internal Security Act, the government cannot ban a peaceful, unarmed rally at all. What the government can do is just to bar people from entering, leaving or occupying a specific area only. To date, the Aphisit-led government has also made it clear that there will be no ban on peaceful rallies.
Special Laws
Indeed, the Internal Security Act is the least stringent of all special laws. When Thaksin was the government leader, his administration passed the Emergency Decree on Public Administration in Emergency Situation BE 2548. This decree in fact gives officials far-reaching authority.
Armed with it, the officials can ban any gathering and arrest suspects without being held responsible for civil, criminal or disciplinary actions. The state of emergency has been imposed in the deep South for more than five consecutive years already.

Political Counter-Attacks on Thai Government

The Aphisit Wetchachiwa Government has announced that it successfully passed the test of performing the administrative work when it declared its achievements in the first six months in office last week.
As the smell of success still persisted in Government House, rumors and speculation were rife and destabilizing the Government.
"Have you heard that the military will stage a coup against the Aphisit Government?" "Is the prime minister really going to remove the Army commander-in-chief?"
"Does Deputy Premier Suthep (Thueaksuban) really support General Phatcharawat (Wongsuwan, the national police chief), or is he just double-dealing to please General Prawit (Wongsuwan, the Defense Minister who is Phatcharawat's brother)?"
"Are the petition by the Red Shirts and the intervention into the police appointments going to be the proverbial single drop of honey for the Government (a small incident leading to a catastrophic consequence)?"
"The Sufficiency Community Project is having fallout, with other coalition parties pressuring for removal of Kopsak (Saphawasu, deputy prime minister)." And so on.

Magnitude of Possible Consequences
Those are just part of something that is viewed only as small "undercurrents". But the Government should not underestimate the magnitude of possible consequences, particularly an expansion of resistance against the Aphisit Government , namely the Red Shirts, the parliamentary opposition, and even the fellow coalition partners. In addition, a wedge is likely to be driven between the Government and the security side and the police.
When those undercurrents are reinforced by some political crisis, there will be a direct and inevitable impact on the longevity of the Aphisit Government .
A current of thought may be treated just that, but it cannot be completely ruled out. There is a possibility that it will be expanded into a mainstream and actual phenomenon.
It appears that a main figure like Aphisit Wetchachiwa, the Democrat Party leader and Thailand's prime minister, is busy and happy with interfering into the international affair of the permanent officials, particularly the Royal Thai Police. Amidst reports of intervention into the transfer lists of police generals and less senior commanders, there was some loud talk at the Thai Khu Fa Building (the PM's Office) that Prime Minister Aphisit's current main task is to take a close supervision of the police force.

Public Image
The Government of Aphisit Wetchachiwa commands a better public image than those of Samak Sunthorawet and Somchai Wongsawat. It is viewed as clean and honest. But as time passes, its behavior is pointing to its actual self. While the Government is denying interference in the police transfers, it has kept General Phatcharawat away from the line of command and appointed the caretaker police chief to do something behind his back.
Always maintaining that it abhors corrupt people, but when the Sufficiency Community Project scandal emerges, the Government limits the blame within the local level, preventing the damage from being linked to its cohorts and MPs.
There are more and more "smelly and fishy" projects, which makes one to wonder if people are getting fed up with "the Clean Boy" and "Mister Neat".
Over the past week, the Government was busy with trying to defeat the opposite side about the issue of royal petition. And there were claims by people of different political colors about the numbers of supporters to their signature campaigns. To announce aid measures too early, with insufficient reasons to support, may land the Government in a dead end.

Social Welfare System
The expansion of benefits for employees in the social welfare system to cover their children and spouses is creating confusion to those involved. The policy that the Government bills as "a party policy" aimed at taking care of people may end up being a double-edged sword.
The desire to hastily create an achievement has forced someone to prematurely announce a policy without careful consideration. With the Ministry of Labor's decision to host the project, it remains unclear if Labor Minister Phaithun Kaeothong discussed the matter carefully with the people involved. There could once again be confusion similar to that taking place during the distribution of the Government 's cheques to poorer employees.
To stay in power for a long term, the Government needs to be good in its work. Its style of working must not be something known as "NATO" by some groups of people. The slang term stands for "No Action, Talk Only."

Impact of Economic Crisis
One measure after another to aid people and to ease the impacts of the economic crisis, in addition to political ploys to expand the scope of the "mega-populism" aimed at winning the hearts of people from the middle class to the grassroots level, all point to the Government 's desire to continue running the country for a long time.
The mass media are pleased to be used by the Government as a channel to present its achievements. That is in addition to the state media that already is serving as the Government 's mouthpiece.
However, it is surprising for the Government to feel that its communication with the public is not good enough and there is an idea to find a new spokesman to do the job. Is it because the information sent by the Government through the media is just political rhetoric?
It is worrying that if the Government focuses on finding words to attack its rivals without working for added value for itself, it will eventually end up having no concrete work for the public. Thai people are getting sick of the "NATO-type politics.