Pakistan-Iran Gas Pipeline Project

Pakistan has recently approved an accord with Iran to go ahead with gas pipeline project even at enhanced price. It cleared the way for the gas pipeline project with Iran by accepting price purchase formula offered by Tehran. The Cabinet accepted Iran’s offer to export one billion cubic feet per day of the gas at 80 per cent of the crude oil price in the international market. A sale-purchase agreement is likely to be signed in 2009.

India Pulls Out
India’s decision to pull out of the project has also pushed up the costs but Pakistan decided to go ahead hoping India would ultimately join it. Pakistan had factored in its needs without caring about “US pressure, that forced India to pull out of it.

The Cabinet approved Pakistan’s accession to the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism which requires parties to take steps to prevent and counteract the financing of terrorism whether direct or indirect through groups claiming to have charitable, social, or cultural goals or which engage in illicit activities.

The Government would own responsibility of paying Rs 31 billion outstanding against the Karachi Electric Supply Company to help its management invest the promised amount of Rs 28 billion on development projects to increase power generation.

The Government decided to set up a four-member committee to oversee Gwadar port operations. It would also propose incentives for the proposed export processing zone. It decided to review the Pak-Afghan transit trade agreement to safeguard the country’s interests while facilitating the Afghan trade.

It decided to levy 25 per cent regulatory tax on export of molasses because its production had dropped after a decline in sugarcane production.

Other Issues

The Government approved draft Anti-Money Laundering (Amendment) Bill, 2009. The proposed amendments are necessary to bring the various provisions of Anti-Money Laundering Ordinance, 2007, in line with international standards.

India has not given any clear indication about joining the 2,775-km-long pipeline project, costing $7.5 billion. However, reports have suggested that India wants differences with Pakistan on transit fees and other issues to be resolved before it moves ahead with the project.

Pakistan also decided to finalise a gas import agreement with Iran and to use the imported gas for power generation in place of furnace oil. Although the price of Iranian gas would be comparatively higher, it would be cheaper than the furnace oil. The cabinet also decided to go in for aggressive exploration of natural resources to reduce the country’s dependence on imported oil and gas.

Russia Ends Counterterrorism Operation in Chechnya

Russia's counterterrorism operation (KTO) has formally declared Chechnya a zone of peace, lifting a tight security regime that has been in force in the region for the past decade.

Acting on orders of President Dmitry Medvedev, the head of the Federal Security Service (FSB) Alexander Bortnikov on April 16, 2009 cancelled a 1999 decree that imposed a regime of “anti-terror operation” in Chechnya. The operation saw Russian forces defeat separatist rebels in what came to be known as the Second Chechen Campaign. In the first campaign in 1994-1996, the federal army suffered a defeat and withdrew from Chechnya.

End of Hostilities
Hostilities ended in Chechnya four years ago, but the anti-terrorist regime remained in force to facilitate the mopping up of remaining rebel groups. The decision may see up to 20,000 troops relocated after a conflict that has officially lasted a decade. Chechen leaders have welcomed the move but the region still faces various challenges, and the decision may have been the result of tightening finances and changing priorities.

There are no more than 70 militants remaining in the Chechen mountains, and we’ll finish them off within May 2009 The cancellation of the anti-terror regime will entail the withdrawal of 20,000 troops from Chechnya even as another 30,000 will remain. Restrictions such as curfews, roadblocks, and house searches will also be lifted.

Lifting of CTO Regime
The counter-terrorist operation (CTO) in Chechnya is due to be lifted, but the National Anti-Terrorist Committee has decided that more work needs to be done on this question. Chechny’s President Ramzan Kadyrov is anxious to have the CTO regime lifted as it is hampering the economy, especially the opening of the international airport and customs offices. The lifting of the CTO regime will mean the withdrawal of 20,000-30,000 troops. One possibility is Dagestan, where there are still "unreliable" villages and plenty of empty buildings which could house the military.

The decision to end the counterterrorist operation in Chechnya was made a long time ago. If Ramzan Kadyrov had not been in such a rush, it would have ended in March 2009. In late March 2009, about 30-35 rebels entered the village of Neftyanka, not far from Dyshne-Vedeno. They encountered no resistance whatsoever.

The rebels discovered the village policeman in his home, but they did not kill him in front of his relatives; they took him outside the village and slit his throat. Then the bandits hung a black flag over the administration building. They did not leave the village until nearly morning, and a few local residents left with them. For example, the nephew of the murdered policeman, a person in intelligence with the 42nd division, which is stationed in Chechnya.

Recently, the Kadyrov announced that the counterterrorist operation (KTO) in Chechnya would soon come to an end. It has been going on for nearly 10 years and it hinders the republic's development. After all, the war is long over, the rebels have been vanquished, and the situation is under control, but due to the special conditions in Chechnya there is no customs office or international flights.

Despite continuing forays by rebels, lifting the KTO in Chechnya is such an important topic that there can be some relaxation. The issue is not only customs, the airport, and the other restrictions. From a certain point of view this is even a foreign policy project. There is a lot more unrest there than in Chechnya, and this could affect that.

The Tragedy

Russia's first war in Chechnya, in the mid-1990s, was a disaster. Thousands of poorly-trained Russian conscripts were slaughtered as they attempted to retake the Muslim republic by force. After two years Moscow was forced to negotiate a ceasefire. In 1999 Russia's then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin launched a second massive offensive. In the ensuing battles Chechnya's capital Grozny was pounded to rubble. More than a third of the Chechen population fled. By 2002 the UN named Grozny "the most destroyed city on the planet". But at the same time the Kremlin's strategy changed.

The key was the defection to Moscow of several powerful Chechen clan leaders. The most important was Akhmad Kadyrov, the former chief mufti, or senior religious leader, of the Chechen republic. In 2003 Akhmad Kadyrov became President of Chechnya. His strategy was to divide the rebel movement. Those who could be persuaded - or bought - were offered amnesty, and a job in the Chechen security forces. Those who held out would be hunted down and killed. A year later Akhmad Kadyrov was killed in a bomb blast at Grozny football stadium.

Far-Reaching Impact
The decision today will also be received with great satisfaction by numerous businesspeople in the countries of Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Asia who have recently expressed an interest in Chechnya and want to make considerable investments in its economy but showed some caution because of the current limitations related to the counterterrorism operation.
It is hoped that, when the issue was considered, both the interests of the republic and the country as a whole would be taken into account. We started from the principle that a thriving, peaceful Chechnya would be a factor in the stability of the south of the country as a whole. And it is pleasing that our expectations have been justified. Without waiting for the decision to be taken, a customs post has been built at a rapid pace and a number of measures have been undertaken to give the airport international status.The most important thing is that drawing a line under the counterterrorism operation has enormous moral and psychological significance. The leadership of Russia has officially confirmed the fact that the nest of terrorism has been crushed, that illegal armed groups have been neutralized, and militant leaders on whose conscience lay the grief and suffering of thousands of people have been destroyed, detained and brought to court. The decision will facilitate the return home of those who left Russia in various years of the operation.

Spreading Naxal Terrorism

With the beginning of the 2009 general elections, the frequency as well as the ferocity of naxal attacks is increasing in Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar. Of late, the naxalites have particularly targeted mining areas, not only to make an easy picking, but also to pull down symbols of economic importance.

The administrative set up is weak in these states and the presence of tribal populace provides a base. They have not only been able to scare voters enough to heed their boycott call, but have also been looting explosives with impunity. That is a chilling reminder that they may be able to cause more killings and kidnappings in the days to come.

Even as the circumstances in which 11 Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) personnels were killed in the Nalco siege in Orissa were being confirmed, there came news of Naxal attacks elsewhere: two Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) men killed on April15 2009; 10 policemen and five election officials on the day after. That is 28 officials in four days — more than the entire number of policemen killed in the Mumbai attacks. That’s more than what the security forces sustain fighting terrorists and insurgents in Kashmir and the North-east.

Operating with Impunity
These attacks may not be so dastardly as some other Naxalite crimes such as brazen slaughter of special police inside their camps in Chhattisgarh or the massacre of Andhra’s “greyhounds” sailing on Chilka lake on the way back home after completing a counter-terrorism mission in Orissa, but they cannot be dismissed lightly. They underscore that Naxal terrorists can operate with impunity. No matter how brazenly heinous their crimes, none of them has even been arrested, leave alone being punished. This is so despite the thundering announcements of “massive manhunts” to bring the guilty to book.

Many people other than the victims are somewhat indulgent to these Maoists because their violence has socio-economic overtones. Some see them as protectors of tribals that are usually exploited and oppressed by forest contractors and others enjoying official patronage. But doesnot this run counter to the fundamental doctrine that no cause can be a justification for terror?

Targeting Elections
The naxals are also targeting the candidates as well as the election machinery. They had recently killed a BJP leader and a village head in Dantewada district of Chhattisgarh.

Campaigning in most affected areas is confined to urban pockets. Yet, no concerted strategy has been evolved to tackle them. Since police drives are launched in a piecemeal fashion, the maoists quietly disappear from the area of operation and strike somewhere else with impunity. What is needed is a joint campaign in all the 13 States where the naxalites have been active.

States’ Response
Some States have responded strongly — so much so that their anti-Naxal measures have critics worrying about human rights abuse. But those state governments are at least clear on who the enemy is. Orissa, on the other hand, prefers fighting an insurgency on the cheap. Though Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik claims that 15 of Orissa’s 30 districts are Naxal-affected, his weak government has done an abysmal job of enforcing the law and ensuring order. The 11 jawans from the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), killed in Koraput — an unusually high death toll given the parameters of the attack — are only the latest in a steady stream of police casualties from Orissa. In Nayagarh in 2008, 13 policemen were slaughtered when Naxals laid siege to the district armoury.

Consequences of Government Strategy
These are the consequences of Government strategy that tries to fight Naxalites on the cheap. It took the Mumbai attack to impose some semblance of accountability on the office of the Union home minister; but there has been little indication from the Centre that any corrective has been put in place for Shivraj Patil’s waffling on Naxalites. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has in the past asserted that Naxalism was the single biggest internal security threat that India faced; but this fight has, essentially, been bequeathed to the Government that takes office in May2009.

Recall: when the entire Naxal leadership was surrounded in the Andhra forests, early on in the UPA government’s tenure, it was a call from New Delhi that saved them. Some states have been less cavalier; human rights activists may rightly demand that charges of excesses be investigated, but at least the Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh Governments have taken the threat seriously.
Nothing much can be expected in terms of a corrective to the messy state of affairs now that the country is in the throes of Lok Sabha elections. But it is to be hoped that whoever comes to power in May will attend to this much-neglected task more difficult. At the same time, the Government must ensure the backing of the local people who feel alienated because of lack of development.