New Great Game and Afghanistan

The United Kingdom and Russia were vying for capturing the Central Asia during the 19th century. The United Kingdom was approaching from the Indian side, whereas the Russians were heading toward India while capturing Central Asia. Unfortunately, the Afghan soil was the center of this great game and Pashtuns were its fuel at that time. Both countries were using Afghanistan as a buffer state and playing this game from the Afghanistan soil. The tenure of this classical great game started with Russia-Prussia war in 1813 and ended on Anglo-Russian Convention in 1907. A British intelligence officer, Arthur Konolly had given this title to a geopolitical and strategic war and he had named the entire Central Asia the Great Chessboard. Rudyard Kipling later on gave this great game an unmatched fame and a romantic status in his novel the KIM.
War of Capturing Resources
This new great game is a war of capturing resources, particularly oil, its supply routes, pipelines and mineral resources more than just occupying territories. Another fundamental difference between the two is that the United Kingdom and Russia were the major players in the old great game, whereas Iran played a side role from time to time along with them; whereas, in the new game, a large number of regional and international powers are involved and the fuel are again the Pashtuns and to an extent Pakistanis. The players in this war include, in addition to the United States, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its allies, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Iran, and Tajikistan of Central Asia, population of which is even less than 2,000,000.
This war is becoming the most expensive war of all times. Only the United States spent $130 billion in 2010 ($4 billion for social sector, and that too, with a number of conditions because of which the entire amount could not be released) (Parenthesis as published). This expenditure earlier amounted to $50 billion to $65 billion. The expenditure incurred by other countries is in addition to this. With regard to life losses, too, this war is becoming unbearable for the United States and its allies. The number of casualties and injured troops is increasing with each passing day. So far, more than 3,000 US and ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) troops have died, whereas number of injured troops stands close to 8,000. However, according to independent sources, number of casualties and wounded troops could exceed these estimates because the Americans and ISAF sources are trying to fudge the numbers due to public reaction.
As far as the Afghans are concerned, they -- according to famous poet, Faiz Ahmed Faiz -- consider their flesh and blood part of the soil so it became food of the soil (means the body went back to its origin). Majority of the troops, who have returned to their home countries, are suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder. Their treatment, including physical ailments, will cost approximately $650 million. On returning home, these troops assume strange behavior. Some limit themselves within their homes; and some join those Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), which help people in Afghanistan and Iraq.
According to the US Anti-Suicide report, approximately 100 out of these returnees commit suicide every year, whereas, approximately 200 are prevented from committing suicide. Different countries want to have a stake in these countries because of their natural resources and strategic importance.
Natural Resources and Strategic Importance
Let us have a look at the natural resources and strategic importance of this region. The oil experts say huge quantity of oil is present under the Caspian Sea. In addition, the world's largest natural gas reserves are present in Turkmenistan and other Central Asian countries. According to survey, conducted during the erstwhile Soviet Union times, 73 million tons coal, 100 billion barrel oil (it appears to be somewhat incorrect) (parenthesis as published) and 5 trillion cubic ft natural gas is present in Afghanistan.
In addition to this, the American National Geological Society conducted another survey in 2007 but released its report in 2010, which says that huge reserves of copper, gold, cobalt and raw iron, which value at $1 trillion, are present on the Afghan side of the Durand Line. The nature's distribution does not observe the geographic limits, set by human beings. It means that there could be huge reserves on the other side of the border, too (means, on Pakistani side). The Pentagon has compared and declared the Lithium reserves here at par with Saudi Arabia's oil reserves. In modern life, Lithium assumes the same importance as the oil, because no battery can be manufactured without Lithium. It is abundantly used in manufacturing several products.
China has initiated a $3 billion project in ionic copper mines, situated in Lugar Province of Afghanistan. It means the Pakistan-Afghanistan Pashtun belt is important as a transit route and it is also full of natural resources.
To benefit from these resources, the United States had first planned to lay a pipeline from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, and then to India and the Arabian Sea. The US firm, Unocal, Bredas of Argentine, and a Saudi company were competing to get the contract for this project. The US firm, Unocal had already spent lot of money on conducting feasibility study and had also arranged funding from international institutions, but the Taliban awarded contract to Bredas, which stunned the United States. Approximately four months before the 9/11 attacks, the US delegation informed every one and particularly Pakistan, during an international conference in Bonn that the Taliban had now become unbearable. And their government will be toppled by the end of the year.
The CIA initiated contacts with Ahmed Shah Masood; otherwise, ZalmayKhalilzad, while representing the US Government, had expressed support to the Taliban in his article, published in The New York Times only two days before this contact (with Ahmed Shah Masood by the CIA was established). In this article, Zalmay had also reprimanded the European countries for banning women veil. The write had suggested the European governments that they should not impose their culture on Afghans, as observing veil is a centuries old Afghan tradition.
The 9/11 attacks provided them (the United States and allies) a golden opportunity and they invaded Afghanistan, which unleashed a new process of destruction and devastation, because the war (in Afghanistan, allusion to Russian invasion of Afghanistan) had, in fact, started 20 years ago before the 9/11 attacks.
Cultural and Religious Influence
From a strategic importance point of view, four historic areas surround this region. Wild tribes, be they in the form of Scythians, White Huns or Mughals, have always marched from the northern plains, Steppe; and finally, Russia's march through Central Asia toward warm waters and Afghanistan and then expansion of Chinese empire from south to the east; and arrival of Indian cultural and religious influence from northwest side.Afghanistan is situated in the southwest of the Middle East region and Wakhan corridor is also situated here, borders of which, touch Azad Kashmir (Pakistan-administered Kashmir) in the south, Tajikistan in the north and China in the east. During 10-year erstwhile Soviet Union war, this was under their occupation; and the United States is also staying here. Iran is also situated in the same area; and Gwadar Port, which is placed as a modern port right at the edge of Asian Gulf, is situated on its eastern side.

Bangladesh Banking Sector Heading Toward Disastrous Situation

Severe liquidity or cash crisis is going on in the banking sector. Banks have become beleaguered to get rid of this liquidity crisis. As immediate solution to crises, banks are increasing their interest rates on deposits. Some are maintaining their with each passing day expenditures after borrowing from the call money market (for inter-bank transaction) at a high rate. In addition, some of the banks are borrowing from Bangladesh Bank through repos (Repurchase Agreements) after pledging the liquid assets like treasury bills and bonds. Their deposit management cost is increasing as they are collecting deposits at a high rate. Some of them are increasing their lending rate to cope up with this additional cost. As the interest rate on bank financing is rising, the cost of investment of the entrepreneurs is also increasing. As a result cost of production is rising. The entrepreneurs are avoiding bank financing as their cost of production is increasing. According to the bank analysts, the situation in the banking sector is not good at all. They have apprehended that if the current situation is not handled properly, the banking sector will face collapse in the future.
Increase of Interest Rate
However, the businessmen have become worried with the increase of the interest rate. They are saying that their cost of doing business is going up with the increment of the borrowing rate of bank financing. As a result the production cost is getting increased. In this situation, the commodity price is getting out of the reach of the mass people. The businessmen are apprehending that the inflation will increase further in the future. The Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industries (FBCCI) -- the supreme organization of the business community -- has urged intervention of the Bangladesh Bank on reducing the higher interest rate, keeping the service charges within the tolerable level, and revising the interest rates for the financing in the productive sector.
In this regard, a group of businessmen led by A.K. Azad, chairman of this supreme organization of business community recently had a meeting with Bangladesh Bank Governor Dr Atiar Rahman. The businessmen discussed the overall condition of the trade and commerce of the nation with the Governor in a two-hour-long meeting.
Financing in Productive Sector
FBCCI Chairman A.K. Azad said that after the lending cap on the financing in the productive sector was removed on 9 March the banks were almost competing with each other in increasing the lending rate. Even before 9 March, the maximum lending rate for the business loan was 13 percent; whereas after 9 March the lending rate of 15 to 18 percent is being imposed on the businesses. Some of the banks have taken it to even 20 percent. Because of this, the cost of business is increasing. The FBCCI chairman believes that this will further ignite the inflation. The investment will not grow. No new employment will be generated. As a result the rate of unemployment will rise further. Under such condition, he expected that the central bank will take initiatives to determine the interest rate that will be beneficial to the economy.
Bangladesh Bank Deputy Governor Nazrul Huda has said that the businessmen have requested to redetermine the maximum lending rate. The Bangladesh Bank has informed the businessmen that there is no scope for redetermination of the interest rate. Moreover, the central bank cannot take such measure in the market economy. However, the banks will be requested to keep the interest rate to a tolerable level.
However, the interest rate on bank financing is continuously increasing. Bankers are not paying heed to the protests of the businessmen. Thirty of the local and international banks have increased their lending rate in this April. Among them, some of the banks have increased their interest rate by three to thee and half percent. In April 2011, the rate of interest in business loans has been 18 percent; whereas in March it was imposed maximum at a rate of 13 percent. Among the 30 private commercial banks 26 have increased their rate of interest in the current month. Among the other four there is a specialized bank and three foreign banks.
Businessmen have expressed their grievance at the interest rate increment of so many banks at a time. As per their opinion, the commodity price has already increased due to the rise of fuel price in the international market.
Fund Management of Banks
However, the fund management of the banks are facing cataclysm because of cash crisis. The total liabilities of some of the banks are not matching up with their total assets. As a result bank is losing their capability for settlement of claims including returning the deposits of the depositors.
As per central bank's guideline, in any particular month, the difference between the total assets of the bank and their claims to be settled must not be greater than 20 percent of their total asset. For example, suppose a bank in a particular month will have to pay off 100 takas (Tk), including earlier committed credit, returning the money of the depositors in the maturity of their deposits, and settlement of import payments. However, in that month, the total earning of the bank from adjustment of credit, proceeds from the maturity of treasury bills and bonds, income from different commissions, and income from the deposits has been Tk 80. So, the difference between the asset and liability would be Tk 20.
This is somewhat acceptable as per the asset liability management guideline of the central bank. Bank may adjust the deficit of Tk 20 from the call money market (the inter-bank market for funds) or through repos from the Bangladesh Bank. But if this difference becomes more than 20 percent, there is possibility of many sorts of hazards for the bank. For example, the captioned bank may face severe liquidity crisis. As a result, the bank loses its capability to settle any of its claims. The bank cannot meet the condition for keeping the mandatory cash reserve with the central bank Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR). The Statutory Liquidity Reserve (SLR) becomes deficient. To resolve the crisis, the banks borrow from the market at a very high rate. In addition, they also collect short term deposits at a very high rate. As a result the fund management cost of that bank increases the consequences into collapse of the overall system of the bank.
One of the high officials of the central bank said that as per the fund management of the banks, a bank has to estimate the probable liabilities in a month. Along with that the amount of total inward deposits at that particular month is also to be estimated. The fund management system of a bank is maintained on this basis.
However, many of the scheduled banks are not following this guideline in the recent time. They are incurring greater amount of expenditures not conforming to their income. As a result different bank are getting excessively dependant on the Bangladesh Bank and the call money market. Many banks are not being able to maintain their day to day expenditures.
An industrialist claiming anonymity informed that at the time of encashment of large amount of check, some banks are not paying within a day. After partially paying they are requesting to come in the next day.
For getting out of this crisis, some of the banks are borrowing from the call money market. Again they are rushing toward the Bangladesh Bank . Every day, they are borrowing more than Tk 90 billion as repo (borrowing for short-term) and under special liquidity support. In some days Bangladesh Bank is even lending Tk 100 billion.
Condition in Banking Sector
Bankers believe that the Bangladesh Bank is entirely responsible for such condition in the banking sector. As per their opinion, in the past seven months of 2010 Bangladesh Bank increased the CRR -- The banks' mandatory rate of reserve to the central bank twice. Because of this, approximately Tk 40 billion came to the central bank from the banks. As a result liquidity crisis began in the banking sector. As a result, in the first month of this year the rate of interest in the call money market climbed up to 170 percent that is recorded as the highest until now.
Dr Saleh Uddin Ahmed, former governor of the Bangladesh Bank, said that the initiative of the central bank to increase CRR was not proper and was not a timely step. He said that the reason was that in December, the banks adjust their entire year's transaction. In this time, they normally disbursed less amount of credit and collected greater amount of deposits, he stated. As a result, their balance sheet remained in good shape, he said. But as CRR rate was increased at that particular time, banks had to keep their deposited money with the central bank on mandatory basis, he stated. He said that the result had been as it was predicted. According to the analysts, the central bank has to take responsible decisions for getting rid of this situation occurred in the banking sector. Otherwise they are anticipating that the crisis in the banking sector will have a negative impact on the overall economy.

International Politics and Bin Laden Chapter

Former Al-Qaida Chief Osama Bin Laden chapter in the international politics had come to an end in May 2011. Bin Laden is now dead. He is now part of history. Many painful stories and incidents of deaths are involved with this history. He had given a new interpretation of the religion of Islam. His interpretation was controversial and it cannot be said Muslims across the world had accepted the version. But it is fact that he produced hundreds of "jihadists" in the Muslim world. These jihadists were ready to embrace "martyrdom" in the name of Islam. Bin Laden wanted to revert to the ancient course of Islam. The "Wahabi" doctrine has this ancient course. Some people prefer identifying the course as the 'Salafi' ideology. The Saudi Royal family is the follower of this ideology.
One Saudi Islamic pundit, Mohammad Bin Abad Al Wahab, is the exponent of this ideology. He was born in 1703. Once the founder of Saudi Royal family, Ibne Saud, was attracted by this philosophy. The family is still following the ideology. It is being told that Saudi Arabia is promoting this doctrine. The Wahabi doctrine gives highest importance to jihad. The followers of Wahabi ideology do not believe in worshipping pir (spiritual leader), mazar (grave), holding milad (a kind of meeting to glorify the Prophet Mohammad), visiting grave, shirk and bidat. Bin Laden used to believe that Islam could be established in the world through jihad.
Significance of Islam
Islam is a religion of peace. Islam has spread to various countries of the world. But in nowhere it expanded through terrorism. The people, who come to our region of the world thousands of years back for preaching Islam, did not resorted to terror activities. They had preached the messages of peace and choose to stay here because of love for the land.
However, for preaching which Islam Bin Laden had stepped into the field? He had inspired hundreds of youths to take part in "jihadist" activities. Bin Laden was an owner of billion of dollars. He spent the money for terror activities. He had developed a big network in the Arab world from Iraq to Algeria. Al-Qaida has a strong base in Yemen. Bin Laden had given birth to the organization named -- Al-Qaida. Allegation has been raised that Al-Qaida was involved with the destruction of World Trade Center on 11 September 2001. Since then the name of Bin Laden has spread to everywhere in the world. He became the "No 1 terrorist of the world." The United States had been on the hunt of Bin Laden since 11 September. After long 10 years he was detected in the Abbottabad City of Pakistan.
Bin Laden has undoubtedly committed crimes. He could be hanged in trials. It would have been normal, if he was tried. But the United States has given rise to many questions by killing Bin Laden. A dead Bin Laden has emerged a more risky man for the United States. Rather the killing of Bin Laden will enhance his popularity. But the question that has assumed prominence to me is that whether this role of the United States would create a big threat to the developing world? The Muslim world is gripped with agitation. One type of hegemony has been created in the name of globalization. In this regard some Islamic pundits (for example Sayyid Qutb of Egypt) think Islam is the solution.
Palestinian Problem
A leader like Bin Laden gives the call for jihad when the Palestinian problem is not solved year after year. The Israeli commandoes kill the Palestinian leaders. And no trails are being held for the killings. It is true that this so called jihad did not get massive support in the Muslim world. But at the same time it is natural that some sorts of agitations and hatred are simmering in the Muslim world as the innocent people are being killed in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The United States had conducted aggression against Afghanistan on the plea that the Taliban gave shelter to Bin Laden. The US forces have been in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2011. US President Barack Obama also won Nobel Prize for peace. But his hands are tainted with blood. He had a given a promise that the US soldiers will be withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2011. Now the deadline has been extended to 2014. But security experts believe the United States has a big interest in Afghanistan. They will have stay in this country. The Central Asia is abundant with huge energy resources, gas and oil. The US companies have huge investment here. The United States does not want other powers (particularly China and Russia) have a share of these resources.
The energy resources of Central Asia will be controlled from Afghanistan. For this reason this "Islamic militancy" has been born to Tajikistan or Uzbekistan. This militancy is also a threat to the security of the Central Asia. The Asiaism of NATO will centre round this region. As a result, there is a remote possibility of withdrawing force from Afghanistan. In case of Iraq it was told that the country had Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs). It had been further told the WMD was posing threat to the security of the region. Under this pretext the United States captured Iraq in 2003. We all know the next stories. The WMD was not found in Iraq. But Saddam Hussein was hanged. Iraq was destroyed. Some US companies are reconstructing Iraq by selling the oil resources of that country. The United States is now searching the path of military intervention in Libya in the name of humanitarian intervention. The oil of Libya is the target of the United States. Libya is the gateway to North Africa. The control of Libya will mean controlling the North African countries having huge resource. The United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) was established with this target.
Terrorism in the name of Islam is acceptable. This is not Islam also. But it equally not acceptable to attack any independent country or violating its sovereignty in the name of suppressing terrorism. This role of the US is the violation of the Clause 4 ( 1) and 4( 4) of the UN Charter that deal with "sovereignty" and "territorial integrity." The United States has involved itself with terror activities in the name of curbing terrorism. The concept of "preemptive strike" that US President Bush had used and Obama now using will not at all help America to galvanize its image. History says the United States is committing such incidents time and again.
Violation of International Law
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague in 1986 ruled that the United States violated the international law by using force illegally in Nicaragua and providing help to Contra guerrillas (fighting the leftist government of that country at that time). The United States did not accept the verdict of the international court. But the UN secretary general in a resolution adopted by 94-2 votes had urged the United States to accept the verdict international court. The United States and Israel voted against the resolution.
In the death of Bin Laden a new chapter has been ushered in. It is to be observed what impact this 'death' creates in the Muslim world. But the Obama administration has more responsibility at this moment to enhance the US image in the Muslim world. President Obama's Cairo address had created a prospect in this regard. But a little progress has so far been achieved. Smaller Islamic militant groups like Al-Qaida have been born to a quite good number of Islamic countries. These groups have much influence in the countries like Algeria, Mauritania, Libya, Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia. The Islamic militants in Somalia directly or indirectly control the state power. The organization named Al Sadarb has introduced Shari'ah in the area controlled by them.
Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Salafist Group of Preaching and Combat had called for suicide bombing and worldwide jihad. The AQIM is active in the entire Maghreb region. The responsibility of the Obama administration at this moment is taking initiatives for bringing these militant groups in the mainstream of the society.
Moreover, it is very urgent to start "dialogue" with the militants in Afghanistan.
Existence of Mullah Omar
After Bin Laden, Mullah Omar is the target of the United States. The existence of Mullah Omar could not be found anywhere in Afghanistan in the long last 10 years of hectic searching. The solution to the Afghan problem will not be possible without initiating dialog with the Taliban. However, the Taliban movement and Al-Qaida are not the same. There are differences between the two.
Al-Qaida had given a call for jihad across the world, but the Taliban wanted to establish Islamic rule only in Afghanistan. It is very urgent for President Obama to withdraw soldiers from Afghanistan. The responsibility of the US President has further increased. The problem could not be solved by engraving the body of Bin Laden in the Arabian Sea from the US warship-Karl Vinson, patrolling in that sea. Obama himself will have to take the initiatives to earn confidence of the Muslim world. The death of Bin Laden has given birth to this possibility. President Obama has ensured his victory in the 2012 US President election by killing Bin Laden. Nobody has doubt about this. But various complexities have been created in the Muslim world, Pakistan-US relations and India-Pakistan relations. The complexities will increase regional tension. These will also create tension in the world politics. And the same will be the main obstacle in the way of establishing peace in the world.