Showing posts with label Bangladesh Bank. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bangladesh Bank. Show all posts

Friday, January 13, 2012

Bangladesh Banking Sector Heading Toward Disastrous Situation

Severe liquidity or cash crisis is going on in the banking sector. Banks have become beleaguered to get rid of this liquidity crisis. As immediate solution to crises, banks are increasing their interest rates on deposits. Some are maintaining their with each passing day expenditures after borrowing from the call money market (for inter-bank transaction) at a high rate. In addition, some of the banks are borrowing from Bangladesh Bank through repos (Repurchase Agreements) after pledging the liquid assets like treasury bills and bonds. Their deposit management cost is increasing as they are collecting deposits at a high rate. Some of them are increasing their lending rate to cope up with this additional cost. As the interest rate on bank financing is rising, the cost of investment of the entrepreneurs is also increasing. As a result cost of production is rising. The entrepreneurs are avoiding bank financing as their cost of production is increasing. According to the bank analysts, the situation in the banking sector is not good at all. They have apprehended that if the current situation is not handled properly, the banking sector will face collapse in the future.
Increase of Interest Rate
However, the businessmen have become worried with the increase of the interest rate. They are saying that their cost of doing business is going up with the increment of the borrowing rate of bank financing. As a result the production cost is getting increased. In this situation, the commodity price is getting out of the reach of the mass people. The businessmen are apprehending that the inflation will increase further in the future. The Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industries (FBCCI) -- the supreme organization of the business community -- has urged intervention of the Bangladesh Bank on reducing the higher interest rate, keeping the service charges within the tolerable level, and revising the interest rates for the financing in the productive sector.
In this regard, a group of businessmen led by A.K. Azad, chairman of this supreme organization of business community recently had a meeting with Bangladesh Bank Governor Dr Atiar Rahman. The businessmen discussed the overall condition of the trade and commerce of the nation with the Governor in a two-hour-long meeting.
Financing in Productive Sector
FBCCI Chairman A.K. Azad said that after the lending cap on the financing in the productive sector was removed on 9 March the banks were almost competing with each other in increasing the lending rate. Even before 9 March, the maximum lending rate for the business loan was 13 percent; whereas after 9 March the lending rate of 15 to 18 percent is being imposed on the businesses. Some of the banks have taken it to even 20 percent. Because of this, the cost of business is increasing. The FBCCI chairman believes that this will further ignite the inflation. The investment will not grow. No new employment will be generated. As a result the rate of unemployment will rise further. Under such condition, he expected that the central bank will take initiatives to determine the interest rate that will be beneficial to the economy.
Bangladesh Bank Deputy Governor Nazrul Huda has said that the businessmen have requested to redetermine the maximum lending rate. The Bangladesh Bank has informed the businessmen that there is no scope for redetermination of the interest rate. Moreover, the central bank cannot take such measure in the market economy. However, the banks will be requested to keep the interest rate to a tolerable level.
However, the interest rate on bank financing is continuously increasing. Bankers are not paying heed to the protests of the businessmen. Thirty of the local and international banks have increased their lending rate in this April. Among them, some of the banks have increased their interest rate by three to thee and half percent. In April 2011, the rate of interest in business loans has been 18 percent; whereas in March it was imposed maximum at a rate of 13 percent. Among the 30 private commercial banks 26 have increased their rate of interest in the current month. Among the other four there is a specialized bank and three foreign banks.
Businessmen have expressed their grievance at the interest rate increment of so many banks at a time. As per their opinion, the commodity price has already increased due to the rise of fuel price in the international market.
Fund Management of Banks
However, the fund management of the banks are facing cataclysm because of cash crisis. The total liabilities of some of the banks are not matching up with their total assets. As a result bank is losing their capability for settlement of claims including returning the deposits of the depositors.
As per central bank's guideline, in any particular month, the difference between the total assets of the bank and their claims to be settled must not be greater than 20 percent of their total asset. For example, suppose a bank in a particular month will have to pay off 100 takas (Tk), including earlier committed credit, returning the money of the depositors in the maturity of their deposits, and settlement of import payments. However, in that month, the total earning of the bank from adjustment of credit, proceeds from the maturity of treasury bills and bonds, income from different commissions, and income from the deposits has been Tk 80. So, the difference between the asset and liability would be Tk 20.
This is somewhat acceptable as per the asset liability management guideline of the central bank. Bank may adjust the deficit of Tk 20 from the call money market (the inter-bank market for funds) or through repos from the Bangladesh Bank. But if this difference becomes more than 20 percent, there is possibility of many sorts of hazards for the bank. For example, the captioned bank may face severe liquidity crisis. As a result, the bank loses its capability to settle any of its claims. The bank cannot meet the condition for keeping the mandatory cash reserve with the central bank Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR). The Statutory Liquidity Reserve (SLR) becomes deficient. To resolve the crisis, the banks borrow from the market at a very high rate. In addition, they also collect short term deposits at a very high rate. As a result the fund management cost of that bank increases the consequences into collapse of the overall system of the bank.
One of the high officials of the central bank said that as per the fund management of the banks, a bank has to estimate the probable liabilities in a month. Along with that the amount of total inward deposits at that particular month is also to be estimated. The fund management system of a bank is maintained on this basis.
However, many of the scheduled banks are not following this guideline in the recent time. They are incurring greater amount of expenditures not conforming to their income. As a result different bank are getting excessively dependant on the Bangladesh Bank and the call money market. Many banks are not being able to maintain their day to day expenditures.
An industrialist claiming anonymity informed that at the time of encashment of large amount of check, some banks are not paying within a day. After partially paying they are requesting to come in the next day.
For getting out of this crisis, some of the banks are borrowing from the call money market. Again they are rushing toward the Bangladesh Bank . Every day, they are borrowing more than Tk 90 billion as repo (borrowing for short-term) and under special liquidity support. In some days Bangladesh Bank is even lending Tk 100 billion.
Condition in Banking Sector
Bankers believe that the Bangladesh Bank is entirely responsible for such condition in the banking sector. As per their opinion, in the past seven months of 2010 Bangladesh Bank increased the CRR -- The banks' mandatory rate of reserve to the central bank twice. Because of this, approximately Tk 40 billion came to the central bank from the banks. As a result liquidity crisis began in the banking sector. As a result, in the first month of this year the rate of interest in the call money market climbed up to 170 percent that is recorded as the highest until now.
Dr Saleh Uddin Ahmed, former governor of the Bangladesh Bank, said that the initiative of the central bank to increase CRR was not proper and was not a timely step. He said that the reason was that in December, the banks adjust their entire year's transaction. In this time, they normally disbursed less amount of credit and collected greater amount of deposits, he stated. As a result, their balance sheet remained in good shape, he said. But as CRR rate was increased at that particular time, banks had to keep their deposited money with the central bank on mandatory basis, he stated. He said that the result had been as it was predicted. According to the analysts, the central bank has to take responsible decisions for getting rid of this situation occurred in the banking sector. Otherwise they are anticipating that the crisis in the banking sector will have a negative impact on the overall economy.

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Bangladesh Trade Deficit Crosses $7 Billion

Despite a bullish trend in the export sector, the country's trade deficit has increased by an enormous proportion due to a massive import cost and a slow pace in remittance inflow. According to Bangladesh Bank's (BB) latest statistics on the balance of payment, the trade deficit in the first 11 months (July-May) of the fiscal 2010-2011 increased by 46 percent in comparison with the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. The BB released this information on 14 July 2011.
Difference Between Import and Export
According to the BB information, the import cost during the July-May period of the fiscal 2010-2011 stood at $27.710billion. The export earning during the same period was at $20.610 billion. The difference between import and export that means the trade deficit stood $7.1 billion. The deficit during the corresponding period of the previous fiscal was $4.87 billion. And as a result, pressure has been created on the balance of payment because of the rise in the trade deficit.
The balance in the current account surplus for the said period was only $610 million. The current account surplus for the same period of the previous fiscal year (2009-10) was at $2.970 million. On the other hand, a deficit of $750 million has been created in the overall balance. During the same period of the previous fiscal, there was a $2.66 billion surplus in the overall balance.
Balance of Payment
The BB while preparing the report on the balance of payment adjusts the export earning as the FOB (excluding transport cost of goods before loading ships and shipping cost). And as a result, the figure of export earning in the BB report is comparatively lower than that of the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB).
However, a 10 percent deduction on account of insurance and shipping cost is made from the statistics of import cost received on the basis of C and F (shipping fare and other cost) to include the import cost in the statistics of balance of payment on FOB basis.
About this state of the balance of payment private research organization, Prof Mustafizur Rahman, executive director of the CPD (Center for Policy Dialogue), said that though there has been a big growth in the export the import cost also increased very significantly due to a rise in the prices of commodities in the international market. He said that a big chunk of our export earning is spent for importing the raw materials of the export items. He said that the current account balance has come under a tremendous pressure due to a rise in the trade deficit side by side with a slow pace in the remittance inflow. He said this pressure will continue in the coming says in the wake of the present state of commodity prices in the international market. To overcome this situation, he suggested diversification of the export items and export market in one hand and taking effective measures for increasing remittance inflow on the other.
According to the BB statistics, the deficit in the service sector has also increased side by side with the trading sector. In the first 11 months of the last fiscal year, the trade deficit in the service sector stood at $2.23 billion. The figure was $1.58 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal. At present there is a surplus of $11.14 billion in the current transfer account. Of the amount, remittance inflow was $10.61 billion. A 5 percent growth was registered in the remittance inflow in the first 11 months of the last fiscal year. On the other hand, a deficit of $1.1 billion was recorded during the same period. The deficit in the previous fiscal was $290 million.
FDI Decreasing
According to information in the BB report, in the first 11 months of the last fiscal year a $720 million net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) came to the country. The net FDI in the previous fiscal was $820million. Meanwhile, a $22 million portfolio foreign investment was withdrawn from the share market. During the same period of the previous fiscal, the portfolio foreign investment withdrawal was $85 million.
Pressure Mounted on Reserve
Pressure has been mounted on foreign exchange reserve because of a rise in the trade deficit and a overall negative impact on the balance of payment. The reserve at the end of May 2011 was increased by a minor proportion in comparison with the same period of the previous fiscal. But the situation has been deteriorated in consideration of the ability of meeting the import cost. The reserve at the end of May 2011 stood at $10.43 billion, which is equivalent to meeting the import cost for 3.6 months. The reserve had the capacity of meeting the import cost for 4.9 months in the previous fiscal.