Financial Crisis in Vietnam

As the world community focuses attention on Egypt and on the political crisis in its surrounding countries, the financial crisis in Vietnam is spreading subtly and speedily. If Vietnam's financial crisis cannot be handled by its government properly, Vietnam can become a new financial disaster center in this region.

When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) advocates Asian countries to use their respective currency appreciation to resolve inflation problem; but of late, the devaluation of Vietnam's currency Dong against the US dollar has already reached as high as 9.3 percent. Such a development has caused export pressure to Vietnam's neighboring countries.
In 2003, since Vietnam implemented its Free Trade Area, the speedy economic growth of Vietnam and the economic future and prospect of Vietnam were viewed by all sectors as very good. Vietnam has even been viewed by many as "the next China."

Pursuing Rapid Economic Growth
However, to pursue rapid economic growth, Vietnam has introduced massive foreign investment to its country. Vietnam has absorbed more foreign capital than what its own economy could bear. Within a short period of less than one year, Vietnam has already faced severe inflation and its economic bubble has burst. All of a sudden, Vietnam's economy plunged into the verge of collapse. It was only through the Vietnamese Government's strong intervention that Vietnam was able to barely stabilize the spread its financial crisis.

At present, Vietnam's currency has devalued drastically and its inflation is getting out of country. At this juncture, no one dares to optimistically speculate if the financial crisis in Vietnam has indeed reached the bottom and from now onward, Vietnam's financial outlook should face a brighter future. This is because simultaneously, political and societal crisis have also emerged in Vietnam. If the Vietnamese Government cannot handle these entire crisis properly, the ruling party of Vietnam which is described as an evergreen party that can last a thousand year, may face collapse and disintegration. In short, Vietnam has suddenly turned into a modern apocalypse for other countries to observe of how a developing country can suddenly suffer such a severe setback.

To the outside world the multiple crises in Vietnam have seen to burst out too sudden and too fast. Although on the surface, whether it is in the area of politics or economy, Vietnam has given the outside world an illusion of progress and prosperity. But in actual fact, the problem relating to Vietnam's real structure crisis has long existed. But all along, Vietnam's ruling party refuses to face the fact. This has led to the present deteriorated condition in Vietnam that is difficult to clean up.

Toward Open Reform Process
In 1986, Vietnam has already begun to push forward economic reform. Vietnam has, from the past collective economy gradually transformed and transited into a free market socialist economy. In 2007, Vietnam entered the World Trade Organization as an equal status member. The fact that Vietnam can become a member of this international organization has reflected the reality that Vietnam has already gone through its past suffering and adversity, entered a better road and allowed its politics to move toward an open reform process.

The steady and rapid growth in trade and economy in Vietnam has helped to resolve its foreign debt crisis and the people in Vietnam are full of confidence and hope toward the nation's future. It is because of such development that many Asian countries have used Vietnam as a good development model and vowed to follow the economic growth path of Vietnam. Many other Asian countries hope that like Vietnam, their countries also can also go through economic and economic reform similar to that of Vietnam within short period of time. Many Asian countries also hope that they can promote the development of Free Trade Area and together with Vietnam, also enjoy a new era of political reform and economic prosperity.

Present Danger and Situation

However, at the 2006 Annual General Assembly of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the leadership transition process for both Vietnam's party leadership and its government leadership from one generation to another has set off the nightmare of Vietnam's present danger and crisis. Because of the fact that the Communist Party of Vietnam is the single domination ruling party that controls Vietnam's political, economical, societal and communication media, the Communist Party of Vietnam has become Vietnam's 'thousand-year" evergreen and an unmatched ruling party in the country.

However, when a party such as the Communist Party of Vietnam takes up a single party dominant structure that has also controlled too many vested interests, benefits and resources of the nation, it has the tendency to produce too many self-interest pipelines for their leaders and create issues relating to corruption and abuse of power.

Impact of Asian Financial Crisis
After Vietnam went through the Asian financial crisis, the Communist Party of Vietnam did carry out innovative efforts to encourage local people with good reputation as well as with good international experience to take part in politics to push forward its economic reform.

As such, under Vietnam's favorable condition of having geopolitical competitive advantage, the economy of Vietnam has also begun to rebound from the valley and appeared to attain an affluent and prosper economy on the surface. Because of the fact that the United States has the intention to pull Vietnam closer to its side in order to strengthen the US controlling power and influence in the South China Sea, the United States has given Vietnam many opportunities to participate in international organizations' programs and activities. Overnight, Vietnam has entered an international community that is fully open. However, Vietnam's political structure could not adjust to such changes. As such serious crisis occurred within the nation.

Communist Party of Vietnam's Interest
The conservative fraction of the Communist Party of Vietnam that controls major party affairs felt uneasy and shock when the reformation fraction of the party wanted to expand its full fledged influence and demanded the ruling party and government to carry out comprehensive reform. On the handling of personnel, financial affairs and vested advantage, the reformation fraction wanted these issues to be done in a transparent manner.

However, leaders from the conservative fraction were disturbed and shocked about such reformation measures. This was because all along, they were the ones who have taken up the vast and wide vested interest of the Communist Party of Vietnam. How could they withstand the impact of such party reform? As so, the conservative faction of the party began to make plot and block the reform in Vietnam. At the recent Communist Party of Vietnam reelection, this rule party has appointed Nguyen Phu Trong as its secretary general and it seems that the retaining of its Prime Minister Nyuyen Tan Dung who was earlier rumored to step down was a compromise reached between the conservative and reformation fraction of the party.

Development Trend
In recent years, the developments in many developing countries have also suffered the bottleneck phenomenon. One of the main reasons is due to the fact that the reformation pace of the ruling parties in these countries cannot catch up with the pace of advancement in economics, societal and political progress of their countries.

As of today, some of the ruling parties in the developing countries have not even gotten rid of the Lenin's political decisionmaking model. Under these governments, many decisions relating to personnel, finance, party affairs are manipulated and controlled by the different political factions within the party. Under such development trend, outstanding party talents that process good image and integrity can suffer what is termed as "count-you-out" phenomenon. Good leaders could be phased out in the process. Moreover, when it is general election time, since the talents of the ruling party are limited, the ruling party leaders must depend on money politics and money power to gain the different political camps' support to win the election battle.

However, once the ruling leaders counted on the support of the different camps within the party through money power and money politics to win the election, the ruling party has to pay a high price to reward their supporters for what they have done. Second, those politicians from the different political camps who depended on money power to retain their position and power are usually those without any lofty goals to implement good national policy for the people. These politicians only know how to please the voters blindly. As such, they tend to give out astonishing welfare checks to the people and caused massive deficits in their nation's federal treasury. To many countries, the problem in Vietnam can serve as a good warning and lesson for many countries to learn.

Strain in US-Pakistan Relations Over Diplomat Issue

There has never been such a great strain in US-Pakistan relations as it is now. Though Pakistani people have vent their ire against the United States on several occasions earlier, all governments in that country continued to wag their tail to the United States. That is why the United States never felt the need either to threaten Islamabad, or initiate any diplomatic action against it.

For once, however, because of a US citizen Raymond Davis, the United States appears to be greatly annoyed. This occurred on 27 January when he shot two Pakistanis dead in Lahore. He maintains that the two Pakistanis were following him on a bike, and wanted to waylay him by threatening him with a gun. Therefore, he fired upon them in self-defence. The American was arrested. The car belonging to the US Embassy speeded up and killed another Pakistani in an attempt to save him. This led to a hue and cry in the country, and slogans like "Death to the Killers" began to be raised. The widow of one of the persons killed committed suicide. This incident added fuel to the fire.

Firefighting Operations
The US Embassy commenced firefighting operations. For the first couple of days, it did not divulge the name of its citizen, implying that he is not a regular diplomat and could be a spy. Names of spies are kept secret. Fake names are also given to them. After his arrest, the American was produced before a Lahore court. If he was not a diplomat, his prosecution in the Lahore court was justified fully.

Yet, no sooner than the United States awoke from slumber, it began to raise the bogey that the American was no ordinary employee in the Embassy, but held the status of a diplomat, implying that his arrest was violative of the international convention. True that foreign diplomats enjoy immunity all over the world. All countries are signatories to the Vienna Convention in this regard. Yet, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi became adamant. Records in his ministry checked whether the American is a diplomat, and whether he enjoys such immunity. He found that the American was no diplomat and cannot be granted any immunity, and can be proceeded against in a court of law in the country. Because of this, Qureshi had to lose the foreign minister's post.

US Economic Aid
Qureshi used to claim to be very close to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Yet, last week, Hillary did not even exchanged any pleasantly with him at Munich, though she did talk to Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani who was sitting beside Qureshi. Truly, if the master gets annoyed, how can an employee continue to be in employment? In fact, Qureshi was under the misconception that Pakistan is a sovereign country, and he the foreign minister of that country.

The American continue to be in custody, the United States has taken to twisting Pakistan's arm. A delegation of US Congressmen has categorically told President Asif Ali Zardari that if it fails to release the American, Pakistan may have to lose the annual US aid of $1.5 billion. The US Department of State has boycotted the Pakistani Embassy in Washington. As if it was not enough, the tripartite meeting between the United States, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, scheduled to be held in February, has been postponed. The meeting was to be attended by President Barack Obama, Hamid Karzai and Asif Ali Zardari. The United States has never before adopted such a strong stance against Pakistan. In fact, the US media has highlighted the issue more than it deserved. US citizens are wondering how the very same country that eats out of the crumbs fallen from their table can commit such a blunder.

Anti-US Wave
Meanwhile, the anti-US wave among the masses in Pakistan was already at its peak. All Islamic elements have now begun to talk louder, and are asking why the Zardari government is tolerating the unwarranted US attitude. They wonder if a Pakistani employee had killed two or three Americans in New York, would Americans spare him? Had that person been a Pakistani diplomat, he would not have been spared even then. In 1997, an American girl was crushed under the wheels of the car of Georgia's Deputy Ambassador. The US administration got his diplomatic status withdrawn, and was arrested. The US administration can go to any length to get the American released.

On the US dispute, the Zardari government appears to be on the horns of a dilemma. On one side is its bread earner and on the other are Pakistani voters. The government is caught in a vice grip. The government is passing the buck to Qureshi. It is, however, to difficult to come out of this blind alley. If the court is presented with evidence that the American is a diplomat, it would release him and the Zardari government would be saved.

Withdrawal of US Troops From Afghanistan
Should the issue get prolonged, it would not only escalate tension between the United States and Pakistan, but may also adversely affect India-Pakistan relations, and even the situation in Afghanistan. India-Pakistan dialogue has been resumed under the US pressure. How ridiculous would it be for India to continue to talk to Pakistan, but the United States continues to shun Pakistan? At the same time, all schemes for withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan may fall into doldrums.

The sympathies of Pakistani people toward Taliban and Al-Qa'ida would continue to increase, and whatever popularity the Zardari government has may vanish. US policymakers would have to weigh what is more important -- its own interests or the special rights of a mere employee? If the United States so desires, it can use Pakistani courts so cunningly and craftily that the desired target is achieved without causing harm to anyone. US-Pakistan tension is not in favor of any country.

Cooperation Among G4 Nations

With a view on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) reforms at an early date and to create a salubrious atmosphere for the claimants of a permanent seat in the UNSC, the foreign ministers of India, Germany, Brazil, and Japan have decided to extend mutual cooperation. All these four countries are claimants of a permanent seat in the UNSC in the event of its reforms. The problem, however, remains that major powers that have turned this international institution in their handmaiden continue to put off the reform process on one pretext or the other. It is in spite of that none of the major powers, including the United States, have denied the need for reforms in principle. It is, however, a different thing that no timetable has been yet fixed for these reforms.

The truth is that ever since its inception the United Nations has never initiated any measure in this connection nor has it brought about any change commensurate to the need of the hour and the changing international scenario. The world has weathered many a storm and revolution in the wake of the Second World War. Several powerful countries have fallen into the deep and dark schism politically. The place of the two parallel blocks, to the United States and Russia, has been taken over by the unipolar world and several countries have emerged on the horizon.

Economic Progress
The keeper of the world in this unipolar bloc, the United States, has become weak scientifically, technically, and economically. The failure of the US militarily adventurism in Iraq and Afghanistan coupled with its earlier failure in Vietnam and several multinational companies and banks in the United States having become bankrupt, makes it vividly clear that the time to come would not be of the United States and Europe, but of Asian countries -- China, Japan, and India -- and that of Brazil in the African comity of nations. Going by the economic progress made by these countries and their ever-increasing sphere of influence in world affairs, the need is being drastically felt that those nations that are non-permanent members of the Security Council should be taken into the council after effecting large-scale reforms in this international organization.

As for China, the country, that has the highest population in the world and which happen to be a fast emerging economic power, is already a permanent member of the Security Council. After the merger of the East and the West Germany, the claim of Germany for a permanent seat is fully justified. Yet, one wonders when the permanent seat for Germany can be considered while there are already two countries, France and the United Kingdom from Europe on the Security Council, why then the claim of Japan and India cannot be considered though China is the only Asian country on the Security Council as a permanent members. The claim of Japan and India is equally justified for the reasons that the two countries are on the list of major economies and prominent industrialized nations.

UN Reforms
India has the second largest population in the world and, at the same time it continues to fulfill the responsibilities of the regional leadership in one way or the other. Among African nations, Brazil occupies a place of pride. Anyway, the four claimants of the permanent UNSC seat have intensified their efforts to strengthen their claim and getting the long-pending UN reforms finalized as soon as possible. They have, therefore, decided to increase their pressure in the current session of the UN General Assembly so that some concrete outcome may be achieved.

The representatives of the four countries have met on two occasions in the last six months. They have issued a joint statement in which they have called upon the United Nations to increase the number of both permanent and non-permanent members for better transaction of business and improvement in the UN functioning. It is worth the mention that of these four countries, three, including India, are, at present non-permanent UNSC members. Under the circumstances, these countries have a better opportunity to press for their demand and suggest solid proposals for reforms. The decision made by these four nations to increase cooperation among themselves is a part of their efforts