Stabilizing South Asia

With the beginning of 2011, the overall geopolitical and security scenario across the globe will appear to be distinctly dismal with 2010 not having witnessed any significant political breakthroughs toward peace and stability. Severe recession plagued the world’s economy as never before and the scourge of terrorism unrelentingly expanded its global footprint in more dangerously innovative forms.
Environment and Climate
Unbridgeable chasms in managing the world’s environment and climate continued to bedevil the developed and the still developing fraternity among nations where billions still remain deprived of the most basic sustenance.
Nearer home, South Asia presents a bleak picture with most of our neighbors suffering, apart from economic deprivation, political instability underscored by the ever-expanding specter of terrorism.
Mercifully, as alluded to by our no-nonsense home minister, India did not witness any major terror strikes in 2009 with over a dozen of these strikes perhaps averted, thanks to some improvements in our overall security architecture, besides the always welcome “luck” factor.
Terrorism Menace
Terrorists and all those agencies, predominantly foreign and now some home grown, which mastermind terror will undoubtedly be waiting in the wings to fructify their evil agendas soon for 365 days without a major terror act in the Indian hinterland would be unpalatable to them.
As such, 2010 could prove to be very challenging to India’s security apparatus, besides, once again, testing the resolve of the Indian state to combat terror. India thus has to look inwards to ensure its own well-being by itself, and as an extension of its ethos and values and as the premier power in this region, do all it can to stabilize South Asia.
To our immediate west lies the most dangerous expanse of the world, namely, the Af-Pak region. Pakistan, globally acknowledged as a fountainhead of terror, is at the cross-roads with its own existence as a nation-state under grave threat attributable to those very elements of the Taliban and Al Qaida it nourished for years to foment terror in India and Afghanistan as an extension of its myopic state policy.
Almost daily major acts of violence all across Pakistan have virtually brought it to a halt, but is Pakistan still sincere in combating terror or will its death wish take it to further ruin? An unstable albeit nuclear-armed Pakistan in the danger of imploding has severe security implications for India and we thus have to monitor the overall situation with great caution.
Though adopting a posture of benign neglect towards them may have some takers in this country, yet indifference towards Pakistan may not prove prudent in the long run. As we remain firm in not restarting the composite dialogue till the 26/11 perpetrators are brought to book by Pakistanis and as unambiguously stated by our Prime Minister that no redrawing of boundaries could be ever considered, India could mull over two steps in the larger interests of peace and stability for this region.
We must impress upon Pakistan that, in Afghanistan, India’s sole interest is to bring peace and development to that hapless nation and thus Pakistan must refrain from carrying out any anti-India activities there.
Accordingly, the first step India could contemplate is that if Pakistan officially commits to genuinely stop abetting terror, India may once again offer a no-war pact on the lines of one that was suggested by the Prime Minister in Amritsar four years ago.
Consequently, Pakistan could safely withdraw as many troops they wish from their eastern border to pursue their internal war against the Taliban and al-Qaida terrorists more vigorously.
The second step could be to invite the main centre of power in Pakistan, namely their Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, for a frank ‘one-to-one’ discussion with the Indian government on some security collaborative measures which need to be taken.
Our democratic dispensation in India will naturally be hesitant to have parleys with the Pakistan Army Chief in India instead of their political leadership and thus such meetings could be managed even outside the country in a confidential manner.
Nevertheless, as we must upgrade our badly lagging and ageing military preparedness, India must not remain indifferent to the happenings inside Pakistan and the small yet civilized constituency for democracy and sanity inside Pakistan needs our encouragement.
Importantly, India must also impress upon the United States that for stabilizing Afghanistan, more than a unilateral approach, getting together all the principal players of the region like Russia, even China, Iran, India, Pakistan and itself to collaborate, under the UN banner, may prove beneficial to that fragile and impoverished country.
Towards our East, after years of an uneasy relationship with Bangladesh, the scenario is positively encouraging with the friendly regime of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina handing over the bulk of the Bangladesh-located rebel ULFA leadership to India.
This major goodwill measure needs to be reciprocated in a substantial manner by our government and we need to address the problems of the Farraka Barrage, the Tin Bigha corridor, the trade deficit problems with equanimity and in a spirit of cooperation.
India must make maximum use of this window of opportunity to cement a multi-faceted relationship with Bangladesh, especially during the forthcoming visit of its Prime Minister to India.
Notwithstanding the fact that Dhaka’s military establishment and intelligence agencies (predominantly its Directorate General Forces Intelligence) have had very close linkages with both the Chinese military and Pakistan’s ISI, a fresh approach to foster security relationships with them be tried. The cooperation of Bangladesh is vital for peace in our restive North-East region.
Maoists Issue in Nepal
With Nepal, over the years, our relationships have been peculiar of love and hate. Nepal, since the end of monarchy, has itself been witnessing a fratricidal struggle owing to the power and ideological struggles between the pro-democracy elements and the Maoists.
Notwithstanding the Maoists’ unfavorable perceptions of India, the visit of Nepalese leader Madhav Kumar to India in August 2009 was indeed a promising beginning for Indo-Nepalese relations. India must strive for the speedy implementation of the various trade and river waters treaties in existence and those signed recently.
We also need to give a fillip to the Bilateral Consultative Group on Security to address all security issues, including cross-border crimes. However, Nepal has to be firmly told that anti-India activities being masterminded by the ISI from Nepal, especially of sending in trained terrorists and the use of Nepalese territory as a conduit for smuggling in fake Indian currency to India has to be dealt with effectively.
China and Sri Lanka Factors
The Indian establishment needs to work out long-term strategic-cum-intelligence arrangements with the Nepalese establishment, notwithstanding the current opposition to it by pro-China elements inside Nepal. In addition, fencing of the currently open Indo-Nepal border could be thought of, besides revisiting the 1950 India-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship.
Though we have warm relations with Sri Lanka, India does not appear to be proactive in furthering its multi-faceted relationship with the island territory. With the Chinese ever active in the implementation of their “string-of-pearls” strategy, it is embarking on the construction of the strategic port of Hambontota in Sri Lanka, which has security implications for us.
And now with Tamil Tiger Prabhakaran out of the way and the end of the civil war in Sri Lanka, India could consider supplying most of the military equipment for the Sri Lankan armed forces as possible and carve out newer areas of cooperation with its tiny neighbor. India has to prevent the Chinese doing a Myanmar in Sri Lanka.
The world acknowledges our “seat on the high table” and the potential of India as a significant global player in the coming years. A strong, secure and self-reliant India must play its major role to bring peace and stability to South Asia and the world at large.

Arms Trade in Bangladesh

The list of the gunrunners and traders is updated during the period of all governments. But those, who control the arms market, remain out of touch. No drive against arms was carried out after the Operation Clean Heart in 2002 and the Combing Operation during the caretaker government in 2007.
According to the Home Ministry, after the changes in government, the special list remained confined to the file. It is not confirmed that when the operation will be conducted. The sources also said with the changes in government, local and foreign arms traders built relations with a part of the administration and the influential leaders of the ruling party. They also manage the officials of the Home Ministry side by side with the officer in charges, police supers and DIGs (deputy inspector of general) of the routes through which the arms are smuggled. The arms trade is carried out in cooperation with them.
During the period of the caretaker government, the field-level intelligence men prepared a list of 400 smugglers who are involved in arms trade. The list was scrutinized after the present government came to power. But the list was not published. When contacted, Home Secretary Abdus Sobhan said that the list of arms traders and smugglers was prepared which will be published soon.
The Home Ministry has no accurate statistics on the number of illegal arms in Bangladesh. The intelligence men updated a list of the illegal arms. But the Home Ministry expressed dissatisfaction over the list. The ministry sources said there are not an accurate number of the licensed arms in the Home Ministry. There is also no information to anybody that how many licenses for arms were given during the rule of the past Awami League and BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) governments.
According to the Bangladesh Development Partnership Centers (BPDC), there are 128 syndicates of arms. The number of illegal arms in the country is now 400,000, which price is 3 billion takas (Tk). Of the arms, 135,000 were traced, but the rest of the arms have no trace.
BPDC Director Sharif A. Kafi said the number of armed terrorists in the country is 600,000. Of them 40 percent are under 18 terrorists. As many as 10,000 licenses of arms were given on urgent basis in the past 15 years from 1991 to 2006 and verification was not done in most of the cases. These arms are not being traced by the law enforcement agencies.
The BPDC research sources also said that there were Tk 25 billions illegal arms in the SAARC countries except Afghanistan. And an international mafia and strong network of smugglers have been working behind it. This syndicate brings arms of Tk 5 billions in Bangladesh.
According to the intelligence agencies, about 10,000 big and small arms were recovered in 2002 under the supervision of the Bangladesh Army. In addition, 6,289 firearms, 29,493 ammunition and 1,625 kg explosives were seized during the Operation Clean Heart in 2007. During the time, 6,000 people were arrested in connection with the arms recovery, while 3,000 cases were filed against them. The sources also said arms, ammunition and grenade-making materials are smuggled through 40 routes of 4,500 km seaways, 189 km land route and 360 km open seaways.
Arms Coming in Those Routes
Smuggling of arms began in this country since the Pakistani rule. At that time, some people carried arms for self-defense. In the 70s, the ultra-revolutionists of the communist groups were procuring arms secretly. Since then, trafficking of illegal arms started. According to the information of the intelligence agencies, there are 48 points through which arms are smuggling into the country. Of them, Ramu, Moheshkhali, Inani Beach, Khashiakhali, Anwara and Shikalbaha are the most discussed routes. In addition to arms are entering into the country through Rajshahi, Chuadanga, Kushtia, Tentulia, Teknaf, Jointa of Habiganj, Chhatak, Meherpur, Akhaura, Bibir Bazar of Comilla, Chouddagram, Bilonia of Feni, Pechiabaria of Amtali, Patia of Chittagong, Dinajpur, Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), Srimangal, Jhinaigati of Sherpur, Kamlganj, Jadabpur, Khagrachhari, Cox's Bazaar, Halishahar, Jessore, Doulatpur, Netrakona and Sundarban. Arms are now coming from Kaikhali of the Sundabans to Chilmari of Kushtia.
The Price of Arms?
Raising of the illegal arms market started in Bangladesh after 1975. During the rule of General Ziaul Haque, smuggled arms entered into Bangladesh from China and Pakistan. Those arms had gone to the hands of the Indian separatists. In addition, arms came from Pakistan for the Burma Rohingas. From this time, United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), Nagaland and Mijoram rebels used to stay in Bangladeshi hilly areas. Bangladeshi terrorists collected some arms from this rebel groups.
The arms, which are smuggled into Bangladesh include AK-47, US pistol, M-16, 9mm pistol, Mouzer pistol, US Taraus, Italy's Pertrobarota, Germany's Ruby, US Revolver, Chinese rifle, Kalashnikov, Indian pistol, Indian revolver, LMG, SMG, pipe gun and 22 bore pistol. Grenades and rocket launchers are also being collected now. The smugglers are selling these arms to the terrorist groups. Underworld sources said that heavy arms were sold to the foreigners and in this case, Bangladesh was a safe transit route. The same sources said that AK-47 was being sold at Tk 300,000, M-16 at 300,000, US pistol at Tk 100,000, 9 mm pistol at Tk 150,000, Mouzer pistol Tk 150,000 , US Taraus Tk 225,000, Italy's Petrobarota 145,000 lakh, US revolver 100,000, Chinese rifle 100,000 and pistol are being sold at Tk 30,000. Fifty godfathers are controlling the arms world, while politicians and industrialists give shelter to them. Intelligence sources said of the 400 arms smugglers, 88 in Dhaka division, 34 in Chittagong, 87 in Khulna, 70 in Rajshahi, 35 in Sylhet, 58 each in Barisal and Rangamati. Though they were arrested at different times, they were engaged in the old trade after releasing from the prison.
Those Who Are Accused
According to the list of the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and police, Hafizur Rahman Hafiz, Gias Hazarica and Tasbih Jahngir were the leading arms traders in the country. Hafiz and Tasbih Jahangir are now in prison, while Gias Hazarika was killed in the cross fire of the RAB. Abdur Rahman and Manzurul Alam are known as the godfathers in the Chittagong-based arms trading. In addition, Dalim of Cox's Bazar and Arif of Feni are engaged in this trade. Chief of Bhaijan Bahini of Bera Abdul Baten and Ajit Dutta are controlling the North Bengal-based arms and narcotics market. Extremist leaders Razu and Shaheen, who are the brothers are directly involved with them. In addition, Sazedur Rahman Chowdhury of Dinajpur, Tutul and Ali Ahmad of Magura, Shaheen of Jessore, Maqbul Chairman of Meherpur, Mahbubul Alam of Kushtia, Tipu and Habib Khan of Manirampur in Jessore, Helal of Bagerhat, Ruhul of Satkhira and Mashiur Rahman and Abdul Hai of Jhenidah are doing arms trade. The arms traders are selling the arms to the Rohinga and CHT rebels with the cooperation of international smugglers. In addition, they supply arms to different areas of the country, including Chittagong, Dhaka, Feni, and Comilla.
Heavy Arms in Extremists' Hands
The extremists are now using various heavy arms like AK-47, AK-56, LMG, SMG, Chinese rifle. These arms are coming through southwestern and Burma frontiers. Purba Banglar Communist Party, the split part of the Indian naxalites (Maoist guerrillas), is collecting these arms. The Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) sources said a large number of centers, which are providing arms have been raised in the Indian bordering areas. The areas include Ranaghat, Nadia, Mohadevpur, Maslandapur, Bangaon and Helencher. Arms training is given to the terrorists in these areas. The consignment of arms comes from India through two routes of Mujibnagar and Gangni. Arms are supplied to across the country from different spots of Damurhuda through Dariapur region. The Chief of Amzad Bahini, Amzad, is controlling trade of smuggled arms. The godfather of the force, Minhazuddin Dukhu, looks after all things from India. Arms come through Kushtia, Comilla and Jessore routes under the political shelter and in connivance of police.
Arms in Phensidyle Factories
Indian traders have built 52 phensidyle factories on their border. A list identifying these factories has been handed over to the Indian authorities on behalf of Bangladesh. The phensidyle produced in the factories enters into Bangladesh through the border. Arms are coming with phensidyle, recently. It was learnt that the smugglers are using the consignment of phensidyle as the advanced consignment. Keeping the police busy with the phensidyle consignment, they are bringing arms and heroin in other consignments. The RAB seized some types of consignments recently. Smuggled arms are being stocked in the 52 phensidyle factories side by side with producing the contraband syrup.
Courier Service is Used
For smuggling arms and narcotics, courier service and transports are being used for a long time. There are allegations that courier service, transport owners, employees and members of the law enforcement agencies are involved with the arms and narcotics traders. Some types of consignments were recently seized. Identified arms and narcotics traders are using some established courier services and transports for smuggling of arms and narcotics. Doing this business, many people have become millionaire. The RAB arrested three foreign nationals with heroin and arms recently. They admitted that they used to sell heroin in Bangladesh after bringing it from Pakistan through courier service. About this, RAB Director General Mokhlesur Rahman said the matter is true. We are monitoring it and the criminals will be arrested by identifying them.
Rohingas are Buying Arms
According to the intelligence agencies, the Rohingas have started buying arms newly. The Rohinga militant groups have raised a fund of Tk 30 crore for purchasing arms. A meeting between international arms traders and the Rohingas was held at Naikhongchhari in Bandarban in December 2010. After the meeting, a decision was taken to purchase arms from the smugglers, while money was already handed over to buy the arms. According to the intelligence sources, a consignment of arms has already reached to the Rohinga militants. The Rohinga militants narrowed their internal conflict, paving the way for receiving assistance from the Middle East. Arms are being reached to them through Naikhangchhari and Teknaf borders.
Hill People Are Not Lagging Behind
The CHT was one of the arms market in Bangladesh. The supply of arms was stopped after the peace treaty in 1997. But the President of Pahari Chhatra Parishad Prasit Bikash Khisa opposed the peace treaty. He formed an organization named United People's Democratic Front or UPDF. With this, activities of collection of arms resumed side by side with the opposition of peace treaty. The Indian separatists have geared up their activities. When BNP came to power in 2001, the implementation process of the peace treaty became standstill. As a result, the UPDF was strengthened gradually. On the other hand, leaders of the Jana Sanghati Samity (JSS) became frustrated as the peace treaty was not successful. As a result, a reformist group was created among the JSS. In addition to the UPDF, they also started collecting arms. And in this way, the trend of stocking arms was seen in the hill tracts. Both JSS and UPDF started using these arms to establish supremacy in the hills. When asked, UPDF Chief Prasit Bikash Khisha said: "We do not accept the peace treaty. We would do whatever necessary in the interest of our security."
Militant Activities
The militant activities began with assumption of power by the BNP in 2001. The militants who returned from Afghanistan became active allover the country splitting into many groups for Islamic revolution. Intelligence sources said that JMB, HuJI-B, JMJB, Allahr Dal, Hijbut Tahreer, Hijbut Tawhid, Amir Ud-Din showed arms openly as there were special blessings to them by the then government. At one stage they started carrying out bomb and grenade attacks with an aim to capture state power. They carried out the heinous grenade attack on the Awami League rally on 21 August 2004. They showed their strength by conducting bomb attacks across the country on 17 August 2005. Intelligence sources said the grenades used in the Awami League rally were produced in Pakistan. These militants are still active. Various sources think that they are also involved in the arms supply process.
Replying to a question about the market and network of the arms, Inspector General of Police Hasan Mahmud Khandakar said that illegal arms are being used in the country. Different terrorist groups are using the arms. He said: "We have prepared a list of the terrorists and the godfather who use arms. As per the list, efforts are continuing to arrest them."
However, Home Minister Sahara Khatoon said that the use of illegal arms was less than any other time. She said: "Many people had used Bangladesh as a route of arms smuggling and we stopped it after coming to power." She said that the country was freed from militancy and a list of gunrunners and their godfathers was prepared. "Efforts are on to arrest the culprits side by side with facing the foreign conspiracies."
Arms Are Produced in Moheshkhali
According to an influential intelligence agency, illegal arms are being produced at some factories inside the country. These arms are being produced at remote hills of Moheshkhali and deep forests of Khagrachhari. These factories are producing guns which have huge demands among the local terrorists. Earlier, the members of the law enforcement agencies seized some arms, arms-making materials and explosives and arrested the arms-makers.
The sources said arms are being produced at Karaibunia, Putirjhiri, Saralia, Gulur Barghona, Kamlghona, Morakiri, Loharchaara, Murichhari and Shaplapur in Moheshkhali hilly areas. To avoid risk of arrests in the day time, the makers are working to produce arms at night. The environment of the factory is like almost a workshop or a shop of blacksmith. There are iron blade, iron-cutting machines and gun handle-making machineries in the factories. Concerned sources said minimum Tk 600 to 700 was spent for producing arms. But it is sold locally at Tk 1500-1600. However, the price of the arms in outside of the area is Tk 5,000. Allegations have been raised that a strong syndicate is selling the arms, produced here, to the terrorist groups across the country. The RAB arrested leading arms-makers Gura Mian, Faridul Alam and Rahmat Ali after conducting a drive in 2010. The elite force also seized 12 arms, including cut-rifle, revolver, and pistol. In the absence of them, another organized circle is selling arms after producing.

Sheikh Hasina Visits India: Bangladesh Assures India To End Terrorism

The story of Osama Bin Laden has come to an end after a military operation carried out by the United States in Pakistan. Now, all major powers, including the United States and India, are exerting pressure on Pakistan to take action against the perpetrators of the 26 November 2008 incident (terrorists strikes in Mumbai) and strictly adhere to its assurance that it would not let its territory used by terrorists to carry out anti India activities. No categorical response has come from Pakistan on it, so far.
Under these circumstances, the assurance given by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajid of Bangladesh to cooperate fully with India against terrorism, assumes greater significance because Bangladesh is one such neighbor, the territory of which may be used by the terrorists against India.
Better Cooperation
Sheikh Hasina has assured Indian Vice President Hamid Ansari, who is on a visit to Bangladesh, that she would not allow Bangladeshi territory to be used for terrorist activities against India and would extend full support to India in its war on terror. In fact, India has received better cooperation from Bangladesh against terrorism earlier, than from Pakistan. It is despite the reported information that several terrorist organizations and outfits, like the Harkatul-Jihad al-Islami (HuJI), and the insurgent groups active in the Northeastern region in India, have turned Bangladesh into their safe haven. There are also reports that several terrorists and insurgent of groups like the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) are hiding in Bangladesh. Despite it, it is equally true that Bangladesh never gave them the liberty to function as Pakistan did. During the Sheikh Hasina era, in particular, an air of confidence has been created between India and Bangladesh and mutual cooperation between the two has increased.
Reiteration of Mutual Trust
The assurance given to Ansari is based on traditional mutual relations and is a reiteration of mutual trust and cooperation. Ansari fearlessly expressed India's concern in the presence of Sheikh Hasina and emphasized the need of mutual cooperation. It makes it clear that India does not expect Bangladesh to be indifferent to terrorism like Pakistan, which is not prepared to take any action against terrorists based in that country. India expects Bangladesh to rein in HuJI, ULFA, and other such insurgent outfits.
It is pertinent to mention that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may also visit Bangladesh and the issue of terrorism would be on the top of the agenda of talks with the Bangladesh leadership. Three agreements with regard to dealing with terrorism already are in existence. India also wants Bangladesh to sign an extradition treaty. India feels that such a treaty is needed to extradite ULFA head Anup Setia to India. True that no worthwhile progress has been made on the issue during the current visit by the vice president yet, it cannot be ignored. That the assurance given by Sheikh Hasina is in unison with India's stand against terrorism.