Somalia: Another Afghanistan

The decade-old Afghanistan problem has been solved to a great extent, but another Afghanistan, centre of African trouble spot, Somalia is eagerly waiting for peace. The people of Somalia have suffered for over a decade and face an uncertain future. Hundreds of thousands of Somalias have died due to factional fighting, famine, or disease over the past decade.

Recent History
A generation of Somalis is growing up surrounded by violence, poverty, and face a very bleak future. Many Somalis have been internally displaced or forced to flee their country. The most affected by the violence and chaos in Somalia are women and children. Many Somali girls have been raped and violated by the so-called militia.

Somalia is located in Northeast Africa. Its coastline extends from the Indian ocean around Cape Guardfui into the Gulf of Aden, with Djibouti to the north-west, Etheopia to the west and Kenya to the south-west.

The Problem
The recent fighting in Mogadishu between Islamic Courts Union (ICU) forces and the now defunct Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter—Terrorism (ARPCT), reportedly formed in February 2006, further complicates the political crisis in Somalia, but also represents an important shift in the balance of power in Mogadishu. The so-called Alliance was the creation of well-known warlords in Mogadishu who have been the main source of instability and violence in Somalia. These warlords include Muse Sudi Yalohod, Mohammed Qanyere Afroh, and Omar Firnish.

The recent crisis in Somalia received unusual international attention in large part due to reported US support for the so-called anti-terror Alliance. The American decision to support the Alliance seems largely driven by long­standing concerns that terrorists—individuals and groups—have used and continue to use Somadia as transit and place to hide. Some of the ICU leaders are seen by US officials as being extremists or terrorists. The newly elected leader of the Council of Islamic Courts, Hasan Dahir Aweys, was one of the top leaders of Al-Ittihad and was designated as a terrorist by the Bush Administration. A weys is dismissive of his designation as a terrorist and contends he is being targetted because of his religion.

The force of the ICU expanded areas under their control after the defeat of the warlords in Mogadishu. ICU forces captured the towns of Jowhar and Beledweyne in mid-June 2006. Moreover, for the first time in years, Mogadishu appears relatively peaceful and the Islamic courts union seems to have the support of the population in areas it controls. The level of support enjoyed by the ICU is difficult to measure, although the group seems to consist of constituencies from multiple sub-clans and appears to have broad support among women of the country. During the Mogadishu fighting, women supporters of ICU played an important-role. The ICU success in Moga­dishu effectively led to the collapse of the ARPCT and forced the warlords to flee or join the ICU.

Negotiations between the transitional federal Government and the ICU did not lead to a major breakthrough, although the talks ended the speculation that the ICU rejects negotiations. In June 2006, the transitional Parliament voted in favour of foreign peacekeeping force. But this move was rejected by some Islamic courts leaders as being unnecessary and counterproductive. The African Union approved a proposal for Uganda and Sudan to deploy a peacekeeping force to Somalia under the auspices of the Inter-Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD). The deployment did not take place in large part because of the refusal of the United Nations Security Council to remove a United Nations arms embargo on Somalia.

In the mid-June, an International Somalia Contact Group, consisting of the US, Norway, United Kingdom, Sweden, Italy, Tanzania and European Union was formed and met to discuss the unfolding Somalian crisis. Accordingly the contact Group stated that “the goal of the international contact group will be to encourage positive political development and engagement with actors inside Somalia to support the implementation of the Transitional Federal Charter and Institutions.” However, many Somalians are skeptical that the international community will help end the crisis. International support after the signing of the agreement in 2004 has been limited and sporadic.

The defeat of the warlords in Moga­dishu and renewed international interest in Somalia may after an opportunity to help establish an effective, all inclusive Central government in Moga­dishu. But peace and stability in Somalia are unlikely to occur in the near future, even if Somalia resolve their differences and establish a Central Govern­ment in Mogadishu. Resolving the Status of Somaliland likely requires serious negotiations.

The role of Somalia's neighbours, unless focused in support of a peaceful and stable Somalia, is likely to continue to contribute to the instability and chaos in the country. If the international community fails to seriously engage and attempt to isolate the new leaders in Mogadishu, they are likely to fight back.

Threat of Terrorism
In the view of many Somalis, the threat of international terrorism cannot be effectively dealt with without a functionary government in Mogadishu. The options for the US are limited and success largely depends on how Somalis manage their own affairs. In 2008, the civilian toll in Somalia was higher than that in Iraq. Mogadishu, with its bombed-out buildings, is described as a ghost.

The danger for the US, however, is being perceived by Somalis as anti-Islam. The label of some Somali groups as terrorists or extremist may have led some in Somalia to reach free conclusion that they are being labeled because of their religion. Somalis are Muslims and secular. No Somali extremist—or fundamentalist group has succeeded in dominating the political scene since independence.

Presidential Election
The election of the Islamist leader Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed as the new President of the country is seen as a significant development on the African continent. His arrival comes two years after Ethiopian forces occupied the capital Mogadishu and ousted the ICU from power.

Sheikh Sharif was a major leader of the ICU, which, during its six months in power, brought peace and stability to most of the war-ravaged nation. He now leads the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), a coalition of moderate Islamists and nationalists. The development in Somalia can be seen as a defeat for the US, but the latter will continue to dabble in the African country because of its strategies location on the Bab al-Mandeb, a key oil transit waterway between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.

Unfortunately, postponed peace talks for Solving the crisis in Somalia, offer the best hope for the war-torn country and the neighbouring States must avoid interferring in its affairs and using it for a proxy war.