Terror Revisits Lahore

In yet another ghastly incident highlighting the deteriorating security environment in Pakistan, a group of gunmen attacked a Police Training Academy at Manawan near Lahore and rampaged through it for hours on March 30, 2009, throwing grenades, seizing hostages and killing at least 11 officers before being overpowered by Pakistani security forces in armoured vehicles and helicopters. In this operation at least 13 officers were also killed.

It is believed that fighters loyal to Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud were suspected to be behind the attacks. Six militants were arrested and eight others were killed in the eight-hour battle to retake the facility on the outskirts of this city in eastern Pakistan. More than 90 officers were wounded by the attackers, some of whom wore police uniforms.The highly coordinated attack underscored the threat that militancy poses to the US-allied, nuclear-armed country and prompted Pakistan’s top civilian security official to say that militant groups were “destabilising the country.” The attack on the Manawan Police Training School began as dozens of the officers carried out morning drills. About 700 trainees were inside at the time.The forces had surrounded the compound, exchanging fire in televised scenes reminiscent of the militant siege in Mumbai in November 2009 and the attack on Sri Lanka’s cricketers in Lahore earlier on March3, 2009.

Part of Terror Wave
The incident is part of the terror wave which began from the North West Frontier Pakistan (NWFP). This is against the country’s sovereignty. The attack was carried out by elements who want to destabilise Pakistan. The terrorists were well-organised. One of the terrorists captured trying to target police helicopters was an Afghan national.

Combined with anti-American sentiments and India-centred conspiracies, this has ensured that the Pakistani State remains strangely paralysed as the country is being repeatedly attacked from all fronts. In the past three months alone, Pakistan has experienced a terrorist attack almost every five days. Over the years, Pakistan has sought to distinguish among militant groups fighting in Kashmir, those seeking to restore the Taliban in Afghanistan and those who have carried out attacks against the Pakistani State.

Given that it was only three days ago that the US President Barack Obama outlined his new Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy — the thrust of which was rooting out Al Qaeda and the Taliban from the region and redoubling efforts towards this goal — the Manawan attack can be seen as a sharp response by jihadi groups asserting that they have no intentions of surrendering or going underground. Also, the fact that the terrorists chose to brazenly target a police academy on the periphery of one of Pakistan’s most important cities can be viewed as a direct challenge to the security establishment of that country.

Pakistan has endured scores of suicide bombings and other attacks in recent years and faces tremendous US pressure to eradicate Al Qaeda and Taliban insurgents on its soil. Most of the violence occurs along the country’s northwest border with Afghanistan, but attacks have occurred in all major Pakistani cities, including in eastern Punjab province of which Lahore is the capital.

Threat to Zardari Administration
The attacks pose a major threat to the weak, year-old civilian administration of Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari, which has been shaken by political turmoil in recent weeks. The Obama administration has warned Pakistan that militancy poses a threat to the nation’s very existence while US officials complain of the country’s spy agencies still keep ties with some of the insurgent groups. The terror movements might be responsible, listing the groups Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and Jaish-e-Mohammad.

The question is — from where are they getting grenades, guns and rocket launchers in such large numbers? The March 30 attack bore the hallmarks of the November 2008 strike on Mumbai, blamed on the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba. Meanwhile, in Miranshah, a suicide bomber rammed an explosives-laden car into a military convoy, killing five soldiers and wounding four in the restive tribal area. The attack took place near Bakakhel village when the convoy set out from the town of Bannu for North Waziristan’s main town, Miranshah. in the semi-autonomous tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.

Fall-out of Pakistan’s Own Policy
It is said that the present terror attack on the police training centre in Lahore is a fall-out of Pakistan's own policy of nurturing and harbouring fundamentalist forces. It is their own creation that has overtaken them. Pakistan has been supporting fundamentalist groups, Islamic groups and jihadi groups over the years. Now they have turned against them. They have now combined and are taking over the State of Pakistan.

Pakistan has been using these groups in Afghanistan, Kashmir and later in the hinterland of the country. It is going to be a big problem. These jihadis have created their own support base. The education has been completely handed over to Madarsas. If therere one lakh madarsas, how many students they would have churned out in past 30-40 years. Pakistan no doubt has been supporting fundamentalist groups and recent attacks show that establishment has lost control over them. There could be a spill over effect of these events on India too.

Such attacks are clearly aimed at hitting where it hurts most; but the militants are also making it very clear as to where they stand, what values they espouse, and steering public opinion in the right direction. There is, in the end, something in the Lahori soul that will not give in to intolerance and extremism.

Whichever way one looks at it, the recent spate of terrorist attacks in Pakistan comprehensively proves that Islamabad is totally incapable of dealing with terror groups operating out of its soil. For the sake of regional and global security, it is time for donors nation to abandon their soft line on Pakistan and force that country to act before it is too late. Democracy-building is fine, but it must follow the destruction of terrorism. If that means freezing funds and giving the green signal to an international force to conduct military ground operations to destroy terror camps in Pakistan, so be it.

Chronology of Major Attacks in Pakistan

Following is a chronology of some of the major terrorist attacks in Pakistan since 2007:

October 18, 2007: At least 139 people were killed and nearly 400 injured in a suicide bombing in Karachi near a motorcade carrying former Pakistani Premier Benazir Bhutto when she returned to the country after eight years of self-imposed exile.
December 21: At least 50 were killed in an attack on a mosque in Pakistan’s northwest.
December 27: A gun and suicide bomb attack kills Bhutto and more than 20 of her supporters as she leaves a party rally in Rawalpindi.
February 16, 2008: Suicide car bomber attacks a PPP rally in the northwestern tribal town of Parachinar, killing 37 people.
February 29: At least 44 people were killed in Mingora, the main town in the restive Swat valley.
March 2: Suicide bomber kills 43 at a meeting of anti-militant tribal elders in the northwestern district of Darra Adam Khel.
March 10: The Federal Investigation Agency building in Lahore attacked by suicide bombers killing 26 people.
July 6: Suicide bomber kills 15 people in an attack in Islamabad during a rally to mark the first anniversary of army raid on the radical Red Mosque.
August 21: Twin suicide attacks kill 57 people outside Pakistan’s main arms factory in Wah.
September 20: At least 60 people were killed when a suicide attacker rammed a massive truck bomb into the gates of the luxury Marriott hotel in Islamabad.
March 3, 2009: Eight persons were killed and several injured when terorrists ambushed the bus of Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore.
March 27: A suicide bomber attacks a mosque in the northwestern town of Jamrud, killing 100 people.

Post-Godhra Carnage Case

Gujarat Child Welfare Minister Mayaben Kodnani, accused of leading rioters in the post-Godhra carnage, has resigned recently from her post and surrendered before the Supreme Court-appointed Special Investigative Team (SIT) after the Gujarat High Court rejected her plea for anticipatory bail. Also arrested along with her is Jaydeep Patel, VHP leader, who stands accused of similar charges. The development is a big blow to Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP Government in the State.

Ms Kodnani, a three-time MLA from Naroda constituency, is an accused in the Naroda Gam and Naroda Patiya massacre cases. Approximately 100 Muslims were killed in these two incidents.

Extricating Truth
The Supreme Court had appointed the SIT to reinvestigate nine riot cases in Gujarat. The SIT asked for the arrest of Ms Kodnani in connection with the cases. The SIT states that over a dozen witnesses saw Ms Kodnani not only leading the rioters, but also carrying weapons.

The apprehensions of human rights activists that it would be difficult to extricate the truth in this context led them to conclude that the judicial system was the best way forward to get justice for the riot victims. Since 2003, the Supreme Court has been acting as a bulwark against attempts by the Gujarat administration to obstruct justice. It was the Supreme Court that set the terms under which the SIT could proceed. In a strong indication of the purpose of reopening the investigation into these cases, the apex court observed that religious fanatics are worse than terrorists.

Gruesome Case
The resignation Ms. Kodnani and her surrender before the SIT investigating the most gruesome cases in the post-Godhra communal carnage of 2002 is a signal to citizens of this country that the principles of equal justice for all and the rule of law are not just abstract concepts but can and will be implemented.

That seven years after the blood curdling massacres of February 28, 2002 in the localities of Naroda Patiya and Gulberg Society, both Ms Kodnani and Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) leader Jaideep Patel were forced to surrender after the cancellation of the anticipatory bail granted to them is a victory for the ongoing campaign by human rights activists to bring the perpetrators to justice. It was these determined and persistent campaigners who appealed to the Supreme Court to transfer these cases out of Gujarat and sought a fresh investigation.

Ms. Kodnani’s continuation in the Modi’s Ministry for so long was in itself a crying shame, considering that an affidavit filed by the Gujarat Government itself before the High Court in February 2009 had said that “she was a leader of the mob and at the relevant point of time she was an MLA who instigated the mob to commit the crime and, therefore, was in the main role”. Not only that, the affidavit also asserted that “she had fired from her pistol and it has been further revealed that she came in her car and distributed swords to the mob”.

It is the duty of every right-thinking person and organisation to ensure that they cannot short-circuit justice.

New US AfPak Policy

The US President Barack Obama has launched his plan for winning the war on terrorism in Pakistan and Afghanistan describing Al Qaida and its extremist allies as a “cancer that risks killing Pakistan from within” and noting that the future of Afghanistan is “inextricably linked” to that of Pakistan. The Obama Administration’s “AfPak” policy review is the result of consultations with US military commanders and diplomats, the Afghan and Pakistan Governments, US allies and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), and with other donors and international organisations.

Unveiling a sweeping new Afghan war strategy, Obama vowed to wipe out terrorists from safe havens in Pakistan, and identified India, Russia and China as among the countries having a stake in the security of the region. He described the Al-Qaida as a “cancer” that could devour Pakistan. The contours of the anti-terrorism drive he announced shows a departure from the policy pursued by the previous administration under George W. Bush. The US will not hesitate in taking the help of the countries in the region, including India and Iran. Since the ouster of the Taliban from Kabul in late 2001, the latter have invariably been seen as an Afghan issue in which Pakistan was involved only to the extent that Islamabad’s assistance was thought necessary in dealing the Taliban and Al Qaida a body blow.

Financial Aid to Pakistan
The US will provide massive financial and other kinds of assistance to Pakistan, where most of the terrorist masterminds are believed to be hiding, but not without strings attached. There will be strict compliance audit. The amount of Rs 7,500 crore that Pakistan will receive annually for five years as part of the US AfPak policy will be allowed to be used only for development purposes like building roads, schools and hospitals.

This may enable Pakistan to use development as a weapon to help defeat the terrorist outfits. But Pakistan will have to ensure that the results are there for all to see. It cannot escape the responsibility of destroying the terrorists’ infrastructure, including their funding sources.

The US will have to force Pakistan to abandon its policy of entering into any kind of deals with terrorists and extremists. The ISI must be made to delink itself from the terrorist outfits it created or nurtured at different stages.

Over the next decade the US is expected to lavish around $30 to $35 billion in aid to Pakistan, which it regards as its frontline State. This includes about $15 billion as part of the AfPak policy.
Pakistan must demonstrate its commitment to rooting out Al-Qaida and the violent extremists within its borders. And the US will insist that action be taken one way or another when it has intelligence about high-level terrorist targets. In other words, the money being promised in direct support to build schools, roads, and hospitals for the Pakistani people will not be coming free or cheap: the Pakistani establishment will have to do more to fight Al-Qaida, the Taliban, and their support networks on their side of the border or else allow the Americans to do the job for them.

Additional Troops for Afghanistan
The US President has directed 17,000 additional American troops to Afghanistan as well as 4,000 military trainers, who will arrive later this spring. These soldiers and Marines will fight the Taliban in the south and east. The emphasis now would be on training and increasing the size of the Afghan security forces. That is how the US will prepare Afghans to take responsibility for their security, and how Washington will ultimately be able to bring our troops home.

Every American unit in Afghanistan will be partnered with an Afghan unit and the US will seek additional trainers from our NATO allies to ensure that every Afghan unit has a coalition partner. We will accelerate our efforts to build an Afghan army of 1,34, 000 and a police force of 82,000 so that we can meet these goals by 2011.

A contact group for Afghanistan and Pakistan will also be set up to bring together America’s NATO allies, central Asian states, the Gulf nations and Iran, Russia, India and China.

It is believed that Al Qaida and other violent extremists have killed several thousand Pakistanis since September 11, 2001, assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, blown up buildings, derailed foreign investment, and threatened the stability of the State. Most of the blood on Al Qaida’s hands is the blood of Muslims, who Al Qaida has killed and maimed in far greater numbers than any other people.

The US would pursue constructive diplomacy with India and Pakistan to lessen tensions between two nuclear-armed neighbours that too often teeter on the edge of escalation and confrontation.

Tackling Militancy in Pakistan
It is said that the weakest leg of the policy must surely be Pakistan. Many elements in Islamabad still believe that defeating the Taliban is more about getting Americans out of Afghanistan than it is about tackling the militant cancer inside Pakistan. The Pakistani military has proven unwilling or simply incapable of taking on the Taliban groups inside its borders. The review speaks of increasing aid to Pakistan and encouraging Indo-Pakistan “constructive diplomacy”. Indians can take umbrage at one sop to Pakistan — the failure to mention 26/11. But there was a time this was a reason for India to worry.

Taliban-ISI Nexus
Over the years the dangerous Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is brazenly aiding the Taliban’s campaign in southern Afghanistan providing it, as US intelligence agencies have discovered, with weapons, finance, strategic planning and even recruits. This also partly explains why the US Government’s ‘Global War on Terror’ in Afghanistan is making little headway even as Washington prepares to dispatch a further 17,000 soldiers taking their troop total to 65,000.

Till last count, the US has lost 671 soldiers in this strife-torn country along with a further 449 belonging to the allied forces. But this is not all. The ISI is also continuing to patronise terrorist groups such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the Jaish-e-Mohammed, which have specifically been targeting India.

India’s Stake
Undoubtedly India must have all options available to it in order to deal with the situation. Diplomacy alone may not suffice to deliver the goods. The difficulty with diplomacy is that it invariably leads to situations in which the sensitivities of others must be taken into account. There should be no surprise if Washington tries to persuade India to return to the comprehensive dialogue process with Pakistan which was disrupted in the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks.

The direct consequence of Taliban rule of Afghanistan for India was Kashmir’s highest levels of insurgency. There is no greater strategic threat to India than the struggle that today encompasses southern Afghanistan and, increasingly, swathes of northwestern Pakistan. Islamabad’s severe allergy to an Indian presence in Afghanistan and India’s normal incoherence about its foreign policy interests mean that New Delhi’s primary influence on Afghan events is via Washington. India is, thus, among the countries that has the greatest stake in the Afghan policy.

The past four years have seen a considerable easing of tension along the Line of Control (LoC) as India and Pakistan moved to narrow their differences over Kashmir. True, the peace process has come to a temporary halt but this is largely because of terrorist incidents like Mumbai. The US knows very well the subterranean links that continue to exist between terrorist groups and ISI.

Unless those links are severed, cross-border terrorism will continue and tension with India will not go away. Internal reform in Pakistan and Afghanistan, coupled with a wider regional approach involving India, Iran, Russia, China, and other players is what will ultimately allow the international community to win what is otherwise a losing military battle in Afghanistan.

Cyber Terrorism: Posing Threat to Security System

Today, with cyberspace is becoming an easy medium for disturbance by hackers— both individual and State– sponsored, as well as terrorist organisations whose main aim is to sabotage and disrupt facilities. High protection of such infrastructures is on the top of the agenda of the countries.

As a concept, Critical Infrastructure Protection or CIP was projected first in the US in 1996 by the then President Bill Clinton, as a result of a high level commission report. The Report proved the susceptibility and necessity of taking a closer look at protection provided to high priority infrastructures. Former US President George W. Bush had set up a special board after 9/11 attack, when he realized the urgency of the situation with New York practically paralysed and vital systems sabotaged.

Most of the developed and developing nations all over the world have woken up to the situation now and several countries like Canada, Sweden, Germany, Norway, Holland and Switzerland are falling in line with the US initiatives. These are under a specially created wing under defence and intelligence ministries or a special task force has been created for this very purpose. Some of these countries have multilateral agreements with other countries for sharing the resources. Although there is no global forum to tackle such issues, our country has an exclusive agreement with the US to fight the menace of CIP and counter Cyber Terrorism. But the European Union countries have a common federation.

Affect on India
India had earlier faced the problem with Pakistan backed defence hackers jamming our troop movement communication system giving false commands and creating a situation of uncertainty.

The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), in a recently held conference, highlighted the threat posed to India by cyber crime, cyber attacks and cyber terrorism. These constitute unlawful attacks on computers, networks and on information stored in them. Criminals indulging in such activities do so to intimidate the Government and its people, and to undermine the society. These crimes can result in violence against individuals, infringement of another person’s property, and could cause serious economic losses to the nation. In particular, cyber terrorism has emerged as a new threat which has the capability of paralysing a country’s critical infrastructure.

Taking this as a small example, we need to set up an action plan on a war-footing. The National Security Council (NSC) is already in touch with several ministries like Home, Defence, Communication, Oil and Natural Gas, etc. to draw up plans. But our planning and implementation gap has always been unpardon­ably long. Instead of waiting for some incident to happen and regretting later, a strong independent body directly under the Prime Minister should be set up having implementation, intelligence and research functions. Cyberspace surveillance is absolutely on top priority and a para-military force allotted for training in computer security, information security and communication security. They should also be trained to provide security to agencies developing critical software application besides personnel security as foreign intelligence agencies like ISI of Pakistan have always been targeting such staff and development bodies. The vulnerability of cyber attacks and the cascading effect of critical interdependent infrastructures falling prey to this menace needs to be scrutinised. All such organisations need to coordinate their physical, satellite and cyber protection security to work in tandem and not separately.

Besides the professional and State–sponsored cyber terrorists, we have the amateur hackers and virus pranksters. They are basically sadists who enjoy disruption and destroying other systems. There is also the inquisitive one who is a mastermind. This category of hackers enjoys getting entry into the most protected systems to filch information out of a sheer need to prove himself and his superiority. One such hacker got access to the NASA Defence System of the US, one of the world’s most protected classified information. Once they get access, they may be enticed into selling these ‘top secret’ details.

Dismantling Vital Systems
There could be attacks by cyber terrorists on vital systems such as telecommunications, power distribution, transportation, financial services, essential public utility services, etc, and that the damage could range from a simple shutdown of a computer system to a complete paralysis of a significant portion of the country’s infrastructure in a specific region. It is, therefore, a good sign that the Government is taking note of cyber crimes.

In fact, terrorist organisations determined to inflict damage on India and its people are increasingly becoming technology savvy. This was amply demonstrated by the sophisticated equipment that the terrorists in Mumbai and, more recently, in Kupwara were using. While so far the country has not yet seen an attack which has crippled one of its vital public utilities, it could happen unless cyber security is further tightened. It is already worrying that security agencies have discovered that terrorists have been using technologies like Voice Over Internet Protocol to bypass the Government’s regulatory controls. Other forms of cyber crime that are also on the rise include identity theft, online theft and e-commerce frauds. This is essentially because of the increasing use of computers and information technology applications in our day-to-day lives. Though the Information Technology Act, 2000, was enacted to take care of cyber crime, it did not deal will all aspects of such crime, and did not anticipate changes in technology.

The Measures
However, the Government has recently amended this Act to add provisions that allow it to issue directives for the interception and monitoring of information through computers for any offence, and also provide for the interception of messages from other communication devices and for the blocking of websites in the interest of national security. This includes measures to tackle cyber crime while making cyber-terrorism an offence punishable with life imprisonment. The coming years will see an increase in e-commerce, and therefore, a proportional growth in cyber crimes. Thus, the Government must do more to check this menace.

The menace of cyber terrorism, by no means unfamiliar to the preceding generations, has assumed grave proportion in recent years. There can be no doubt that cyber terrorism is one the ugliest faces of the political dissent anywhere. However laudable the cause for which the terrorists may be fighting, their way of fighting is most treacherous and cowardly. The murder of innocent persons and the destruction of public property cannot be condoned for any reason whatsoever. Terrorism is a phenomenon which must be condemned universally and unequivocally.

Implications of Early Marriage

Throughout the world, marriage is regarded as a moment of celebration and a milestone in adult life. Sadly the practice of early marriage gives no such cause for celebration. All too often, the imposition of a marriage partner upon a child means that a girl or boy's childhood is cut short and their fundamental rights are compromised. While much of the impact is hidden, it is absolutely clear that millions of children and young people—especially girls—suffer negative consequences.

Law Commission Recommendations
Recently, the Law Commission has recommended changes in laws to prohibit marriage of children below 18. It suggested that 18 should be made the age for marriage—uniformly, across gender, community and religion. It stated that marriages involving a girl or boy below 16 should be illegal. Marriages involving parties between 16 and 18 years should be voidable with an option for the minor to repudiate the marriage after he/she turns 20.

At present, under the Hindu Marriage Act (HMA), the marriageable age for a girl is 18, for a boy, it is 21. If the Centre accepts the recommendations and the laws are amended—it will be for the first time in the history of India—a marriage involving a bridge or groom below 16 will be illegal.

The present laws—the HMA and the Prohibition of Child Marriage Act, 2006 (PCMA)—do not have such provisions. Violation of the condition of age under HMA does not make the marriage void. However, taking note of the possible difficulties faced by girls, the Commission recommended that they—would be entitled to maintenance under PCMA till her marriage. Similarly, provisions relating to maintenance, child custody and legistimacy would be applicable to voidable marriages as they are at present.

In tune with a recent Supreme Court order, the Commission also suggested mandatory registration of marriages within a stipulated period for all communities—Hindus, Muslims, Christians and others. The marriage age for both boys and girls should be 18 years as there is no scientific reason why this should be difficult, the Commission stated.

In fact, the issue of child marriage hit headlines after the High Courts of Delhi and Andhra Pradesh upheld their validity in cases where minor girls had eloped with their lovers. They were facing kidnapping and rape charges after criminal cases were filed by the girls’ parents. This led to a big controvery and the National Commission for Women and Delhi Commission for Women filed petition, before the Supreme Court highlighting the contradiction in the definition of child under various laws.

Who is a Child?
Different Indian laws have varying versions on when a child turns adult. Some laws state that the age of attaining adulthood is 14, while for others, it ranges between 16 and 18.

The Indian Penal Code (IPC) is confusing as Section 361 gives different definitions. A boy less than 16 is defined as a child and a girl less than 18 is considered a child. There is no gender parity in IPC for children.

Again, according to the Immoral Trafficking Act, the defining age for children is 18 or less.

The inherent contradiction in the IPC does not end here. While sex with a girl who is 16 or younger is considered rape, in the case of a married woman, the offence can be registered only if she is less than 15. This is contradictory to the provisions of the Child Marriage Prohibition Act, which states that the legal age of marriage is 18.

The Child Labour Prohibition Act has an altogether different definition. Only those below 14 are considered children. Children between 14 and 18 are allowed to work in hazardous industries.

According to the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Child anyone below 18 is a child. As India is signatory to the Convention, all laws need to be amended here.

Impact on Children and Society
Young girls may endure misery as a result of early marriage and the number of those who would seek help, if they thought it existed. Until more is known about their situation there can be no reliable estimates of the scale of their predicament, or of the social damage that is carried forward in the upbringing they give to their own children.

One thing is clear that the impact of early marriage on girls and to a lesser extent on boys—is wide-ranging. Within a rights perspective, three key concerns are the denial of childhood and adolescence, the certainty of personal freedom and the lack of opportunity to develop a full sense of self-hood as well as the denial of psychosocial and emotional well-being, reproductive health and educational opportunity.

Early marriage also has implications for the well-being of families, and for society as a whole where girls are uneducated and ill-prepared for their roles as mothers and contributors to society, there are costs to be borne at every level, from the individual household to the nation as a whole.

India-Israel Defence Deal

The defence relations between India and Israel have grown significantly. The close cooperation between the two countries is due the respect for Israeli systems and its experience in fighting terror. The very special defence relationship, India has with Israel is now moving towards joint development of equipment.

Israel has now overtaken Russia as India’s largest defence partner after breaking the $1 billion mark in new contracts signed annually during the last two years. It was only in August 2007 that Israel had become India’s second largest arms supplier after Russia. This is why the Indian military regards Israel as a reliable defence partner.

Over the past decade, India has brought a vast array of military hardware from Israel, worth $9 billion including Green Pine missile detecting radars, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), Travor assault riffles and thermal imagers used both on battle tanks and for counter-insurgency operations in Jammu and Kashmir. In August 2008, Indian Defence Ministry had approved a $2.5 billion joint IAI-Rajael deal to develop a new and advanced version of the Spyder surface-to-air missile system.

Surface-to-Air Missile
India is learnt to have struck a Rs 10,000crore deal with an Israeli company for the supply and joint development of medium-range surface-to-air missiles. The Defence Ministry is yet to officially confirm that the deal has been signed.

The joint development of the 70-km MR-SAM project will be done by India’s Defence and Research Development Organisation (DRDO) and the Israeli Aircraft Industries. This company, incidentally, is also the manufacturer of the Barak missile systems. The DRDO is hoping that collaboration with the IAI will help it develop these missiles within four to five years. The indigenous Akash surface-to-air missile developed by DRDO has a range of 30 km.

Left’s Objections
The Left parties had raised strong objections to this deal in February 2009. In a joint letter signed by CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat and CPI General Secretary A.B. Bardhan dated February 9 addressed to the Prime Minister, the Left leaders said the CBI had alleged in 2006 that there is “prima facie evidence” of kickbacks paid to clinch the Barak surface-to-air missile interceptor deal in 2000, and that there is evidence of remittances paid by Israel Aircraft Industries — manufacturers of Barak missile systems — to middlemen. The Left leaders alleged that the MR-SAM deal had been signed despite the fact that the DRDO already had the knowhow to make advanced air defence missiles.

The Left parties have been opposing defence and strategic cooperation with Israel. They had also raised the matter of Israel’s policy towards Palestinians. However, the Centre maintains that defence cooperation with Israel is in the national interest. In 2007, defence minister A.K. Antony had told Parliament that India had made defence purchases of over $5 billion from Israel from 2002 to 2007.

Indian naval sources point out that Israeli Barak missiles, Derby missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare equipment are either already being used by the Navy or are in the process of being procured. The Barak missiles are surface-to-air precision-guided missiles with a short range of about 10 km and are very effective missile interceptors which are used as the last layer of defence to destroy an advancing missile.

Administrative Reforms Commission Report

The Second Administrative Reforms Commission (ARC), headed by M. Veerappa Moily, in its 12th report, released on March 25, 2009, stated that the bureaucracy in India is generally perceived to be “unresponsive, insensitive and corrupt” and a common complaint against it pertains to excessive red-tapism.

Poor Quality of Services
In its 12th report, the Commission stated that during its visits to the States, it interacted with a large number of people and most of them complained of the poor quality of services provided by the Government, the indifferent attitude of Government servants, corruption and abuse of authority and the lack of accountability. “The reasons for Governments not being citizen centric can be attributed to the attitude and work of some government servants, the deficiencies in existing institutional structures and also to some citizens,” the report stated.

While the laws made by the legislature may be sound and relevant, very often they are not properly implemented by Government functionaries, it stated. The institutional structure provided at times may be also weak and ill conceived and thus has neither the capacity nor the resources to implement the laws in letter and spirit, the report stated.

Problems of Excessive Centralisation
The report stated that the system often suffers from problems of excessive centralisation and policies and action plans are far removed from the needs of the citizens. This results in a mismatch between what is required and what is being provided,” it stated.

The Commission observed that there was a growing concern that the civil services and administration in general had become “wooden, inflexible, self perpetu ating and inward looking”.
The report further stated that consequently their attitude is one of indifference and insensitivity to the needs of citizens. This, coupled with the enormous asymmetry in the wielding of power at all levels, has further aggravated the situation. The end result is that officers perceive themselves as dispensing favours to citizens rather than serving them.

Drug Abuse: Reasons and Treatment

Drugs are chemicals that have a profound impact on the neurochemical balance in the brain which directly affects how you feel and act. People who are suffering emotionally use drugs, not so much for the rush, but to escape from their problems. They are trying to self-medicate themselves out of loneliness, low self-esteem, unhappy relationships, or stress. This is a pattern that too often leads to drug abuse and addiction.

Identified as a disease in 1956 by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the American Psychiatric Association, drug abuse is the illicit consumption of any naturally occurring or pharmaceutical substance for the purpose of changing the way in which a person feels, thinks or behaves, without understanding or taking into consideration the damaging physical and mental side-effects that are caused.

Grim Scenario in Indian Subcontinent
The news for India and the subcontinent on narcotic drugs is not encouraging. India has since long been precariously flanked by Asia’s two biggest drug producing regions –- the Golden Triangle comprising Myanmar, Laos and Thailand, and the Golden Crescent comprising Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran.

A recently released report prepared by the Inter-national Narcotics Control Board (INCB) has painted a grim picture for the region. First, there is an increase in the trafficking of amphetamine-type stimulants or ATS and their precursor chemicals throughout South Asia.

This is important because ATS are abused by more people than cocaine and heroin combined. Mani-pulating pleasure centres of the brain, these synthetic drugs, which include ‘speed’ and ‘ecstasy’, are easy to produce, cheap to buy and hard to control.

UN Report
A recent report prepared by the UN office on Drugs and Crime states that ATS alone affect approximately 25 million worldwide with most abuse taking place in East and South-East Asia. It has not so far been ascertained whether the Indian subcontinent is becoming a recipient or is merely serving as a transit area between manufacturing hubs in East Asia and the rapidly growing illicit markets on the Arabian peninsula.

Second, the HIV transmission rate in the subcontinent is still high among persons who abuse drugs by injection and this has only been rising in the subcontinent. The INCB report observes that in India the prevalence of HIV infection among such drug abusers in 2006 was estimated at a national average of 8.71 per cent.

In Bangladesh, HIV prevalence among such drug abusers in the region of Dhaka alone rose from 1.4 per cent to 7 per cent in 2006. In Nepal, HIV prevalence among such drug abusers in Kathmandu was the highest in this region at 34 per cent.

According to the report, apart from alcohol (62.46 million users), cannabis (8.75 million users), opiates such as heroin, opium, buprenorphine and propoxyphene (2.04 million users), and sedatives (0.29 million users) are the drugs most abused. Between 17 per cent and 20 per cent of current drug users were classified as dependent users (addicts). The users were mostly male; the Rapid Assessment Survey found only eight per cent of drug users to be women. By and large, young, underemployed males and marginalised populations were prone to drug abuse.

Drug abuse causes a range of health complications—from weakness, loss of body weight and respiratory disorders. Often, under the influence of drugs, addicts also indulge in high-risk behaviours such as unsafe sex and needle sharing, which has contributed to the spread of infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS and Hepatitis C. One of the most important effects of drug abuse is impaired judgment and a lack of rational thinking. Addicts develop psychological problems such as depression, anxiety and irritability, apart from personality problems.

The Reasons
People start on drugs for a number of reasons, from curiosity and recreation to the need to cope with stress. What begins as abuse can often lead to dependence. Physically, the body develops tolerance for it, and more of the drug is needed to experience the same effect. This leads to increases in consumption, which eventually leads to physical dependence. At that stage, lack of the drug causes severe withdrawal symptoms, which disappear if the drug is taken again; this ensures that abusers remain hooked.

Users are almost always young, initiated into drug use with alcohol and then with cannabis and its derivatives. Often, they graduate to other, more potent, drugs such as narcotic analgesics, stimulants, depressants, hallucinogens and volatile solvents. Most abusers consume multiple drugs. According to a psychiatrist, who has been treating patients with drug dependence problems for several years, the easy availability of drugs, curiosity, peer approval and thrill-seeking are the most common reasons for drug abuse among the youth.

The incidence of drug abuse is also high among people with untreated psychiatric or emotional problems, who often resort to taking drugs as a coping mechanism. Thus drug abuse may be primary or secondary to an existing emotional problem. Deeper emotional issues caused by dysfunctional families, feelings of self-hate, low self-esteem, and physical or mental abuse are some issues that need to be addressed during the identification and treatment of the problem.

Treatment and Recovery
As in all diseases, timely treatment is essential. But unfortunately warning signs often go unheeded, especially among the youth. There is almost always deterioration in the normal daily functioning. Sleeping late, mood changes, deterioration in academic performance, beha­viour problems such as aggression, rebelliousness and hyperactivity, lack of concentration and so on, are often ignored by family members as signs of adolescence rather than symptoms of addiction. To sustain their habit, with which they become obsessively preoccupied, addicts often lie, steal and manipulate family members.

A patient’s recovery process thus involves not only abstinence but also lifestyle changes. Detoxification, the first phase in treatment, involves medical management to make the withdrawal process safe and comfortable. For effective care and full recovery, psychological support is necessary and coexisting psychiatric problems have to be identified and treated simultaneously with the addiction.

In fact, according to the various components of the National Survey, hardly a third of drug-dependants reported having taken treatment (it was as low as two per cent in one of the components). There was also a significant time lag between the onset of dependence and the seeking of treatment, largely owing to a lack of knowledge about the need for treatment and rehabilitation and access to treatment facilities.

There is a general perception that “will power” alone is enough to stop taking drugs. While personal motivation is indeed crucial to recovery, it is important that patients and their families know that drug abuse is a disease that can be treated with appropriate and timely medical and psychological help.

Relapse prevention is also an important part of the recovery process. Isolating recovering addicts from friends who use drugs is essential. Support groups such as Narcotics Anonymous (NA) (an international brotherhood where recovering addicts help and motivate each other to abstain from drug abuse) are of enormous help in preventing a relapse.

Tough Challenge
The challenges to the international drug control system are as daunting today as they were a century ago and perhaps more complex. Of considerable concern is the impact of globalisation that has been facilitated by the advances in information and communication technologies.
Another challenging fallout of the communication revolution is the emergence of ‘rogue’ pharmacies that are encouraging drug abuse among vulnerable groups. For example, the report observes that in the US, where the abuse of prescription drugs by young adults has been rising sharply since 2002, 34 illegal Internet pharmacies dispensed more than 98 million dosage units of hydrocodone products during 2006.

At the lower end of the spectrum of those vulnerable are a rising number of educated unemployed graduates. Rural people, another vulnerable group, are dominant opium abusers. According to the National Survey, between 51 per cent and 76 per cent of drug users were from rural areas, and between 16 and 49 per cent were illiterate.

In fact, focused interventions are needed to prevent the initiation of new users and the progression of occasional and casual users to dependent users, and for the treatment, aftercare and rehabilitation of established dependent users. The prevention programmes based only on information dissemination were rarely successful, especially if the approach depicted exaggerated risks associated with drug use in order to frighten people into abstinence. A less sensational, scientific approach, which presents accurate information of facts and risks, would be highly effective.

Given the large and rising number of drug abusers and the complex nature of the problem, it is important that the issue is brought into the domain of public health care and related to such other issues as crime prevention, health care, lifestyle changes and education. It should become part of a larger public discourse, rather than a problem to be dealt with after it reaches a chronic stage.

Changing Face of Elections 2009

The exercise for the democracy has begun. The country is getting ready to elect a new Parliament. It is by no means amused by the antics of the current occupants whether on the government benches, the Opposition or even known independents. Except for a few honourable exceptions, politicians are held in contempt. The chances are that most of the current herd will face ignominious defeat. Parliament will doubtless have a new look. Will it be pleasing or even uglier than before remains a troublesome question to be answered. No one should venture a correct prediction.

Different Scenario
With the two major national parties showing signs of age or debility, many small and medium entities in India’s political jungle have begun to flex their muscles and disrupt the democratic ecosystem that has been carefully developed and nurtured over the last six decades. Thanks to the overweening sense of self-importance of many bit players in the political process or their greed, the two main coalitions that had emerged over the last few years — the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led-National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) — have begun to come apart. The Congress, which was only the other day gloating over the plight of the NDA, suddenly finds the ‘secular’ grand alliance crafted by it five years ago withering away. The dilemma of the two main parties and the coalitions formed by them shows that the political system is under severe strain. This has been brought about by a host of reasons.First, India’s social diversity has, over a period of time, translated itself into political diversity and spawned dozens of caste and region-based parties all over the country. These political entities, like the Pattali Makkal Katchi of the Vanniars in Tamil Nadu, command the loyalty of the caste groups which they seek to empower, ensure huge turnout of supporters in their pocket boroughs on election day, and get them to ‘caste’ their votes, even in a Parliament election. The rest of the electorate, lacking the drive and determination of the dominant caste, largely stays away from polling stations and allow local, caste-based electoral opinions to prevail over national issues.Second, the electoral system that we have adopted is deeply flawed as it just does not enable us to ascertain the view of the majority in every constituency and at the macro level in the country. Since voters are under no legal or moral obligation to vote, nearly half the electors stay away from polling stations, thus allowing a small but fiercely committed minority to ‘win’ the seat. What we, therefore, have before us after a Lok Sabha election is not the opinion of the majority of India’s electorate but the aggregate of the opinions of hundreds of minorities. Combine this flaw with the first-past-the-post system and you realise how illogical the democratic system has become. The main players and the political system would have been able to cope with all this if smaller political parties which are part of the two main alliances respected the coalition dharma and showed at least a modicum of loyalty to the groups they belong to. But, as political developments over the last couple of weeks show, this is not to be. If the political promiscuity that is currently on display is any indication, we will be entering a free trade zone in our national politics once the Lok Sabha results are declared.

All parties are now hastening to get their act together. It is open season for dumping partners, building alliances, striking deals and, generally, assembling winnable assets for entering the general elections. As yesterday’s rivals turn today’s allies, friends fall by the wayside and scruples go for a toss, every party will be seeking to maximise the situation in its own favour.The battle will be different this time. About 499 of the 543 constituencies will be different because of the latest round of delimitation. Check out the contours of your constituency — some parts of it might have disappeared and new parts added. The New Delhi and South Mumbai seats, for instance, are nothing like they used to be.

Picture of Vulnerability
The cumulative pressure from different quarters has led to an abrupt change in the chemistry of the 2009 general elections. Far from its re-election at the Centre being regarded as inevitable and unstoppable, the Congress now presents a picture of vulnerability. If the BJP is a non-player in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, the Congress has ruled itself out of consideration in all but six of the 120 seats from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. With Lalu Yadav also spewing venom on a Congress that dared accommodate his rebel brother-in-law, it is now apparent that the UPA, which was crafted in the aftermath of the 2004 poll, has been terminated. The unity of “secular” forces, which was the justification for the 2004 arrangement, is no longer seen as the primary driving force.

If the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha also carries out its threat to contest all the 14 seats in Jharkhand and if the wily PMK switches its loyalty to the AIADMK-led alliance, the coming days could see the perceptional change of the Congress from the favourite (to emerge as the Number One party) to the underdog. The formation of another UPA type Government, which the media had taken for granted, may not be inevitable.

Had the disintegration of the UPA taken place prior to Naveen Patnaik’s departure from the BJP-led alliance, there is little doubt that the NDA parties would have witnessed a dramatic increase in the number of hangers-on in their election offices. The loss of its most loyal and least troublesome ally came as a very rude shock to the BJP. But it also forced the party to cement its alliances elsewhere. On balance, the loss of alliances in 21 seats in Orissa has been made up by alliances that cover a total of 35 or so constituencies in Assam, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh.

Race For Prime Ministership
In fact, this will be first election since the first in 1952 in which a Dalit leader in the form of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati will make a strong candidature for the prime ministership. She will try to take advantage her caste identity. For Jagjivan Ram, the last Dalit to have been projected as candidate for the top job in 1977, his caste was more of a handicap than a political plus. This is also the first election that you will have two declared prime ministerial candidates, Dr. Manmohan Singh and senior BJP leader L K Advani. And that is not counting many more with known aspirations but who have not made their claims public as yet.At the level of leadership too, a generational shift is evident. Several key players of 2004 will be missing this time. V P Singh, Harkishan Singh Surjeet and Chandra Shekhar are no more, while Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Jyoti Basu will be staying away from the action on account of old age. This is the first election that will take into account India’s massive urbanisation over the last three decades.

In 2004, Lok Sabha constituencies were based on the population spread as per the 1971 census; this time, it will be based on the census of 2001. Between 1971 and 2001, urban population has nearly doubled and the number of towns has gone up from 2,590 to 5,161. In 1971 there were 22 people in cities for every 100 in the countryside; in 2001 there were 38. Voters of urban India will have a higher say compared to 2004 and will be wooed by parties perhaps for the first time.

The Possibilities
In the 2009 general elections, the fight may end up with any one of three possible outcomes: a Congress-led UPA win, a BJP-led NDA victory or a Third Front coming out ahead. At present scenario, the ruling UPA looks to be the frontrunner. But so did the NDA at this stage in 2004. With each passing day, the NDA looks less and less likely to emerge the winner, but it is too early to rule it out. After all, the Third Front looked as good as dead till a fortnight ago. Today, it has bounced back into contention, perhaps ahead of the NDA. With the exception of 1996, it is difficult to think of an election as open as this one.

At the same time this suspense is not born out of uncertainty. Though the possibilities of Government formation are wide open, the range of possible electoral outcomes is actually very narrow. Unlike the elections of the 1970s and 1980s, there will be no nationwide wave. The final outcome will reflect the sum total equilibrium of political forces at the State level. This will result in yet another hung Parliament, like every Lok Sabha election since 1989. Unlike 1999, no pre-poll alliance will secure a majority. With a little bit of risk, a dramatic fall in the tally for the UPA cannot be ruled out, or a dramatic rise for the NDA. Not many would disagree if you predicted a sharp fall for the Left and a rise for other partners of the Third Front.

In the race for the 15th Lok Sabha elections, States are going to play crucial roles. Even though the election is at the national level, the voters will exercise their ‘principal’ choice at the State level, which is reflected in a derivative way at the national level. There are many States (with 116 Lok Sabha seats, 72 of them held by the BJP) where the State Government was elected in 2008 or so and can look forward to an easy confirmation of its probation. Even 10 to 20 seats changing hands can alter the equation dramatically.

However, the largest category is that of States facing a mid-term review. This accounts for a little over a majority of the seats in the Lok Sabha: 55 in UPA-ruled States, 84 in NDA-ruled States and 142 seats in States run by third force formations like the Left and the BSP. And then there are 137 seats in States where the Government awaits a final approval or disapproval of the electorate. But anti-incumbent outcomes in these States cannot be assumed.

The Biggest and Smallest

The Election Commission (EC) has come out with some interesting facts and figures regarding Parliamentary constituencies in the country. If area is taken into account then Ladakh in Jammu and Kashmir is the largest Parliamentary constituency, as per the EC list of 10 largest and 10 smallest Lok Sabha constituencies.

Ladakh, with an area spreading over 1,72,37,41,08,504 sq mt, is followed by Barmer (Rajasthan), Kutch (Gujarat), Arunachal East, Arunachal West, Mandi (Himachal Pradesh), Bikaner (Rajasthan), Bastar (Chhattisgarh), Jodhpur (Rajasthan) and Mizoram.

Lakshwadeep, with an area of 3,02,92,967sq mt, heads the list of smallest constituencies. It is followed by constituencies in metropolitan cities like Mumbai South, Kolkata Uttar, Mumbai North Central, Mumbai South Central, Chennai Central, Hyderabad, Mumbai North East, Mumbai North West and Chandni Chowk (Delhi).

Incidentally, as per another list released earlier, Lakshwadeep is also the smallest constituency as far as the votes’ strength is concerned. The latest delimitation exercise has seen addition of 43 million new voters in the country and Unnao in Uttar Pradesh with 18,97,474 electorates emerged the largest, while Lakshwadeep with 44,424 and 40 polling stations the smallest constituency in the country.

The country on the whole saw an increase in electorate from 671 million in 2004 polls to 714 million in 2009. The total eligible voters -- 71,42,87,814 -- will use 10.5 lakh electronic voting machines to exercise their franchise at 8.3 lakh polling stations. There has been a substantial increase in polling stations from 6,87,402 in 2004 elections to 8,28,804 in 2009.

Third Front

The Left and some regional parties, spearheaded by former Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda, have joined hands to cobble up a eight-party Third Front in a bid to form an alternative to the combines led by the Congress and BJP on the plank of decentralisation of power.
According to the leaders of the new alliance both the Congress-led UPA and the BJP-led NDA have failed to address people’s grievances and discounted suggestions that some regional parties were coming together on an “opportunistic platform.”

The new Front comprises the Left—Communist Party of India (Marxist), Communist Party of India (CPI), Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), Forward Bloc—Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Telanga Rashtra Samiti (TRS), Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) and Bhajan Lal’s Janahit Congress Party. In the 14th Lok Sabha, tally of Third Front constituencies was 83 (CPM-42, CPI-10, BSP-16, TDP-4, RSP-3, FB-3, TRS-3 AIADMK-0, HJC-0, JD(S)-2). On the fence NCP, BJD and SP have 11, 10 and 33 seats respectively.

The launch of the Third Front raises more questions than it provides answers to. That is only to be expected given the imponderables in a situation where no party or alliance is a clear frontrunner in the run-up to the general election. While the principal contenders — the Congress-led UPA and BJP-led NDA — have, predictably, sneered at the launching of the Third Front, NCP supremo Sharad Pawar has taken a realistic view of the emerging proposition. Pawar may have stated the obvious in saying that if neither of the two alliances get a majority, they will have to talk to the Third Front. Yet, in doing so, he has shown both savvy and candour; savvy in keeping open his lines of communication to the Third Front, and candour in acknowledging the circumstances in which the Third Front could become a critical player.

That underscores both the strength and weakness of the Third Front. Its strength is that it is a platform ostensibly equidistant from the Congress party and the BJP. The platform is ideologically disparate enough to hold all comers, and the lack of cohesion can be projected as the flexibility of those who constitute the grouping. With the exception of the TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu, no heavyweight in the sense of a prime ministerial aspirant, has come up on the Front’s platform. Yet this is precisely the Front’s weakness — of being a platform for too many aspiring Prime Ministers who are not even willing to stand up and be counted now.

For its part, the CPI will contest 53 seats including some in the traditional Hindi belt of Uttar Pradesh (9), Bihar (8), Jharkhand (4), Madhya Pradesh (3) and Chhattisgarh.

As for the CPI manifesto, it reads more like a four-year report card, with the party claiming credit for the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), Prevention of Domestic Violence Act (PDCA) and Traditional Forest Dwellers Act (TFDA). On the economic front, the CPI, like CPIM, lists its moves to prevent the dilution of government equity in banks, privatisation of insurance sector and transfer of pension and PF funds into speculative markets. On the whole, the manifesto calls for a non-Congress, non BJP alternative to defend the country’s secular fabric, pursue an independent foreign policy and a pro-poor economic course that ends neo-liberalism.

Emergence of King Maker
Nearly five years after suffering a humiliating electoral drubbing in his home State of Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party Chief N Chandrababu Naidu looks set to play the role of a ‘King Maker’ once again at the national level. The emergence of Third Front, a conglomeration of disparate regional players and Left parties, has revived the hopes of Naidu who has been on an image make-over exercise to regain the confidence of voters.

During his hey days, Naidu was widely seen as a poster boy of reforms and had earned the sobriquet ‘King Maker’ for his crucial role in both the United Front and NDA regimes. The regional satrap had saddled the two ends of the political spectrum with equal ease and finesse.
It is expected that the 2009 general elections will throw up a situation similar to the one that prevailed in 1996 when regional parties emerged as crucial players in the formation of government at the Centre. The TDP chief, one of the prime movers of the UF, went on to influence its course in the subsequent years. From formulating the political strategies to building consensus over Prime Ministerial candidates, Naidu’s influence was overwhelming during the United Front dispensation.

However, he pulled off a surprise in 1998 by switching sides and supporting the Vajpayee Government in return for Lok Sabha Speaker’s post for his party nominee. The TDP’s alliance with BJP continued for seven years till both the parties suffered defeat in the previous elections. After a series of policy reversals in the wake of rout in the 2004 polls, Naidu is now positioning himself as a ‘pro-poor, populist politician’ and assigning a bigger role for himself at national level.

Role of Regional Parties
It is noticeable that Congress, which is supposedly the anchor of the UPA Government, is reduced to less than a junior status in the matter of allocation of seats for the forthcoming elections at the hands of regional parties in the politically crucial States of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. While in the former, the Samajwadi Party left only six out of 80 seats where it stated that it would not contest against the Congress, in Bihar the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janshakti Party divided 37 of the 40 seats among themselves and condescendingly left a paltry three for the Congress. This is not even the proverbial crumbs and the ignominy is not lost on anyone. The Congress, which was asking for 11 out of the 40 seats, had come down to six but Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan did not give it even the measly four that it had contested in 2004. The Congress has decided to contest “many more seats” in Bihar, just as it is putting up candidates on at least 60 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh. But that brave face cannot hide the national discomfiture. After all, in the last elections, it had contested as many as 73 seats in Uttar Pradesh and had won only nine.

The reasons for its growing irrelevance in the two large states are not far to seek. The Congress never allowed leaders of stature to grow roots in the states. They were just hangers-on who owed their position to their proximity to the central leaders in Delhi. So, the aspirations of the local populace were never taken into account adequately. In contrast, regional parties strengthened their grassroots, leading to the stage where the Congress virtually became a non-entity. That the BJP is faring no better is hardly any consolation for the Congress.

Power of Women Trio

Women politicians may not be able to get their rightful share in the 15th Lok Sabha, but three of their colleagues --- BSP supremo Mayawati, AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa and Trinamool Congress boss Mamata Banerjee --- are all set to play an important role in the 2009 general elections.

Political observers maintain that no alliance is likely to be formed without the active support of the three women in question. Even their detractors in rival parties acknowledge that if anyone has the capacity to make a difference, whether to the UPA, NDA or the Third Front, it is the trio.
Apart from Congress President Sonia Gandhi, Mayawati, Jayalalithaa and Mamata will play key role in these elections. Together, they have the capacity to influence results in 70 to 80 Lok Sabha seats. Interestingly, neither the Congress-led UPA nor the BJP-led NDA is projecting a woman leader as its prime ministerial candidate. While Manmohan Singh continues to be Congress’ choice, LK Advani is the BJP man for the post. As of now, the Third Front is also mum on the issue. Mayawati has made it clear that her party would fight the Lok Sabha polls on its own. She declared that BSP alone can deliver the nation from misrule by the Congress and the BJP. But the Dalit leader has not ruled out an alliance with the Third Front after the elections. What she wants is a clear commitment from the Third Front as she knows there are others in the running.

Mayawati’s victory in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections two years back was viewed by political pundits as a defining moment in the country's politics when handiwork of smartly undertaken “social engineering” worked. It is this “social engineering” formula that she hopes will come to her aid at the national level as well. She has the capability of winning at least 40-45 seats in Uttar Pradesh. If the Samajwadi Party and the Congress manage to get together, her tally can reduce. But if they do not then Mayawati will be the clear beneficiary. She may get a couple of more seats from other States as well.

In West Bengal, the Trinamool chief Mamata has emerged as a power to reckon with. She managed to corner 28 good constituencies for her party’s kitty out of the total 42 despite having won only one seat in the 2004 general elections. Her seat-sharing partner Congress, with six sitting MPs, had to be contend with 14 seats.

Interestingly, Trinamool’s 28 constituencies include “good, winnable seats”, some of which the Congress had been demanding. Mamata’s bargaining power is evident from the fact that majority of 14 seats that the Congress will now contest are those which it either already holds or those which she had offered in the beginning of the alliance.

Counting anti-incumbency as one of her main winning points, Jayalalithaa is upbeat about the prospects of her party AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. Jayalalithaa is more “neutral” in her ideological stance and does not believe in taking hard position on any issues related to Congress or BJP in order to retain the bargaining power in post-election scenario. She had also made advances to the Congress, asking it to leave the DMK and come with her. In 2004 her party manged to secure close to 30 per cent vote share and if she manages to pull the PMK with her, of which there are indications, her situation will only improve.

JD (U)-Samata Merger RejectedIn a setback to the JD(U) and the Samata Party ahead of the Lok Sabha poll, the Election Commission has rejected their merger on the ground that it was not “total”. The Commission stated that the merger was not total in view of a dispute.

The merger plan of the Samata Party with the JD(U) had run into rough weather following the objections raised by dissident Samata Party member of the dissolved Lok Sabha Brahmanand Mandal, who had claimed before the Commission that he was with the original Samata Party.
The Commission allowed the Mandal faction to operate under the Samata Party’s name. The Commission has, however, not taken any decision on allotting the Samata Party’s “torch’’ symbol to the faction. It has asked the party to apply for a reserved symbol under Rule 10(a) of the Representation of People Act.

Congress-NCP Pact
The Congress, however, has managed to cobble up a seat-sharing pact in Maharashtra with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) under which it will field 26 candidates and leave 22 seats for the Sharad Pawar-led party in the Lok Sabha elections. The deal sees the NCP getting one seat more than in the previous Lok Sabha polls. Both parties, however, remained evasive on whether the alliance would also extend to other states like Goa and Gujarat. They also sidestepped questions whether Samajwadi Party could be accommodated in the alliance in Maharashtra. This is the second formal alliance of the Congress with a UPA partner after the one with the JMM in Jharkhand.

Strategy Against Left
There is no surprise when Congress finally blinked in Bengal. It had already accepted Mamata as the senior partner of the alliance. But state Congress leaders delayed the inevitable by pleading for two extra seats so that the morale of party workers could be boosted. It finally took an ultimatum from Mamata this week to make the Congress fall in line and accept the alliance on terms dictated by Trinamool Congess. The national party had already surrendered the anti-CPM political space in the state by flirting with the Left, so much so that in Bengal it has had to live with the dubious description that the party resembles a water melon — green from outside but red within. From the perspective of the Congress, the alliance could not have come at a better time. With pre-poll alliances falling apart and the post-poll situation looking increasingly uncertain, an alliance with TMC made political sense. It also sends out the signal that Congress will not be averse to the role of a junior partner in the even more important state of Uttar Pradesh.

It is no ‘magic of Mamata’ but an upsurge of anti-CPM sentiment in Bengal which the alliance hopes to cash in on. The alliance has a token presence of the SUCI, a radical Left party with strong pockets of influence, and is likely to get the support of the Maoists as well, who had earlier made common cause with Mamata against the State Government? They include policies on industrialisation and acquisition of land. The steady decline of the CPM in the State was indicated by the reverses it suffered, first in the panchayat elections held in 2008 and subsequently in the byelections to the State Assembly in February 2009.

Varun Gandhi Controversy

In an unprecedented order, the Election Commission has recommended to the BJP that it should not nominate Varun Gandhi as a candidate for the Lok Sabha elections after holding him guilty of violating the Model Code of Conduct for his hate speeches against Muslims. Coming down heavily on the 29-year-old son of late Sanjay Gandhi and Menaka Gandhi, the Commission stated that Gandhi’s controversial speeches in Pilibhit (Uttar Pradesh) recently contained “highly derogatory” references and seriously provocative language of a “wholly unacceptable” nature against a certain community.

A defiant BJP has rejected the Election Commission's advice to it, not to nominate Varun Gandhi as candidate in the Lok Sabha elections and threw its full weight behind his candidature in Pilibhit. The young member of the Gandhi family also put up a defiant posture accusing the EC of acting in "haste" and going beyond its "jurisdiction", "pressurised by political considerations".However, it is unfortunate that the BJP has rejected the Commission’s advice not to nominate Mr Varun Gandhi as the party’s candidate in the Lok Sabha elections. While the Commission has no powers to disqualify Varun, its “advice” should have received the respect that it deserved. By rejecting the advice summarily, the BJP has shown its utter disregard for norms, belittled the august body and let it be known where it stands on the vital issues involving Varun’s speech.

The BJP allegation that the proximity of the Chief Election Commissioner-designate Navin Chawla to the Congress and the strained relations between Sonia Gandhi and Maneka Gandhi led to the Commission’s strong action against Varun, is indicative of the party’s questionable gameplan to make political capital out of the Varun Gandhi affair. Predictably, its crusade against Chawla will get sharper by the day and could take the shape of placing the electoral process in doubt if it fails to come to power at the Centre.

This is timely advice, especially when both the UPA and the NDA are seeing desertions from their ranks and the so-called Third Front has become a parking lot for a host of ambitious political players who are determined to extract more than their pound of flesh from the national parties when the results come in. Given the grave implications that all this has for the democratic process, and given the slights and insults that their coalition partners have heaped on them in recent times, the country’s two main parties will have to work in tandem and bring in legal and systemic changes if they wish to restore the credibility of the political system.

IPL Goes International: South Africa Becomes Hosts

The Indian Premier League (IPL) will no longer be “Indian” in its second edition as the tournament travels overseas and will be held in South Africa. The Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI), the apex governing body for the sport in the country, has decided that the Twenty20 IPL Championship scheduled for April will be played outside the country--South Africa. The decision was taken at a hurriedly convened meeting of the Working Committee of the BCCI in Mumbai.

The New Venue
South Africa will play host to the second edition of the Indian Premier League (IPL). The cash-rich tournament is expected to begin from April 17 to May 24, 2009 in six venues. The possible venues for the event include Pretoria, Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, Port Elizabeth and Bloemfontein. South Africa scored an edge over England as a potential host of the cash-rich event because of the conducive weather in the April-May period. Cops in England had also expressed concern over providing foolproof security for the event at such a short notice.

Earlier various State Governments including that of Maharashtra refused to provide security for the matches scheduled through April and May and coinciding with the 2009 general elections. In all 14 matches were scheduled in Maharashtra alone that coincided with the elections. There was no opposition from the franchise owners over shifting the venues to another country.

According to the IPL Commissioner Lalit Modi, the matches would be timed to suit the Indian television audiences. The original schedule of two matches per day at 4pm and 8pm Indian time would be adhered to. The second edition of IPL would be a 59-match tournament like the inaugural edition. The telecasting right is one major source of earnings. In 2008 edition of the IPL, franchisees alone earned around Rs 27 crore from tele-casting rights.

The matches will be played at 12.30pm and 4.30 pm (South Africa time) so that it is televised at 4 pm and 8 pm IST in India.

Ill-Conceived ScheduleThe unimaginative and insensitive IPL championship organisers proposed an ill-conceived schedule for the second edition of the tournament during the very weeks when everyone knew that the general elections would be underway. The IPL and the BCCI did not show a sense of responsibility by insisting that the tournament be held more or less as per their schedule albeit with minor adjustments in utter disregard for the country’s security concerns. This was even when the Centre had expressed to the IPL its inability to provide central forces for security even as the Election Commission has begun hinting that it may need more forces for peaceful conduct of the five-phase elections.

In the present atmosphere, where the threat from terrorist organisations is real, it would have been a nightmare for any state to provide security at a major cricket tournament and to international and domestic cricketers, and hold elections as well. The Union Hpme Minister P. Chidambaram even went to the extent of appealing to the ‘patriotic sentiments’ of the IPL organisers in trying to make everyone understand that elections have to be the first priority for a nation and not glitzy entertainment, no matter how popular it may be.

In its manipulative handling of the long-drawn drama that preceded the shifting of the venue of the IPL outside the country, the BCCI has demonstrated that it is not afraid to even take on the might of the Indian State. It first tried to win over as many States as possible in its effort to get over security issues in order to satisfy the legitimate security concerns of the Home Minister.
It used the media to great advantage by drumming day in and day out that if India cannot host the IPL, the world will equate it with Pakistan and India will be seen as a weak State. In most television debates, the hosting of the IPL became a symbol of India’s national pride.

There is no doubt that cricket matters in India because the people take it seriously. The BCCI’s clout accrues from this popular interest. And it was in the interest of the game that critics hushed reservations about some of the IPL’s suspect procedures. Its opaque decision-making, for instance, and turf wars with wannabe leagues.

After all, domestic cricket would find new utterance with this league format. But now the IPL chooses to amplify that turf mentality by making it seem India is not safe for cricket as usual. That is certainly not the case in a country set to host the Commonwealth Games in 2010 and the next edition of the ICC Cricket World Cup. And that is certainly not fair to India’s fans or its first-class cricketers. For starters, the Government may ask Sharad Pawar, a key member of the Union Government and the cricket establishment, just what his views are and what he can do to retrieve the situation.

The shifting of the second edition of the IPL is going to have long-term consequences. Whatever the domestic wrangling, the rest of the world will make a commonsensical deduction — that the Government of India believes the country is not safe enough to host a high-profile sports event. The implications for the 2010 Commonwealth Games — British and Australian athletes have already raised an alarm and will now cite the IPL’s fate as further evidence — are obvious. Cricket’s 2011 World Cup is now also in the grey zone.

Security Issue
With security being the cornerstone of the Government’s opposition to the event — all the talk of changing the event’s scheduling to after the polls with adequate cover being just so much hot air since everyone is well aware that there are simply no alternative dates available — it sends out a weak signal from the establishment. The IPL is just one — admittedly high-profile — aspect of daily life, and by saying it was unable to guarantee sufficient forces to protect the event, the government of the day has effectively admitted that beyond conducting the five days of the election, its hands are tied when it comes to emergencies that may arise at the same time. Also, the IPL’s decision has raised a very genuine spectre.

What now comes in the way of further international events being called off? The Commonwealth Games in the capital are just over a year away, and security fears have already been aired. The Davis Cup fixture between India and Australia in Chennai, slap-bang in the middle of the polls, hangs in the balance with the Australians unwilling to travel to India. Post 26/11 and the attack in Lahore on the Sri Lankan Test team, it was always on the cards that the IPL would face a hard time from the establishment — with Union Home Minister P. Chidambaram making the astonishing claim that not just in host States or centres, there could be problems if elections were being held in adjoining states. That statement would have been the final nail in the coffin as far as holding the second edition of the IPL was concerned for the organisers.

It is not that the Government does not stand to monetarily benefit either. For, in 2008, the Government earned Rs 91 crore in tax on payments made to players, umpires, coaches and commentators among others. But governments, as they are supposed to be in any responsible democracy and welfare state, are not dictated by commercial benefits. It is far more necessary to ensure the safety and security of a month-long electoral process in the world’s largest democracy, which, unfortunately, is surrounded by a mix of both authoritarian and dysfunctional regimes, one of which believes in exporting terrorism as an instrument of State policy.

The Other Angle
It is apparent that the Government and the senior leadership of the Congress wanted to scuttle the IPL. A whole host of reasons — the IPL Governing Council’s denial of permission for political advertising; the Congress’s resolve to snub Pawar in Maharashtra; Rajasthan politics that decided Modi was persona non grata — came into play. Pawar was President of the BCCI when the IPL was conceived and Modi is the League’s Commissioner. While one is a political heavyweight and the other only small fry.

At another level, the party simply cannot live with a sports event — or perhaps any event — it does not have absolute or proxy control of, that it cannot claim political ownership of. An establishment that still measures sports extravaganzas by the standards of the State-sponsored 1982 Asian Games just cannot make sense of the new energies that drive events like IPL. This was the core issue; terrorism only the convenient excuse. What the IPL fiasco establishes is that if the Government does not want something, it can simply scotch it and use national security as its rationale.

Chances of Pakistani Players
Pakistani players may get a chance to feature in the Indian Premier League (IPL) this season as at least one of the franchises is keen to have their Pakistani sign-ups to play for them. At least four Pakistani players including Sohail Tanvir, Umar Gul, Misbah-ul-Haq and Kamran Akmal could be in line to play for their old franchises in the IPL which will be now held in South Africa after being shifted from India.

Since the IPL is now not being held in India the franchises are thinking about asking for permission from the organisers to bring back their Pakistani players on board for the tournament. The Kolkata Knight Riders was one team that had already indicated it wanted pace bowler Umar Gul back while Rajasthan Royals were also eying all-rounder Sohail.

Pakistani players were stopped from going to India to play in the 2009 IPL by the Government after relations with India deteriorated following the Mumbai terror attack in November 2008. But with the IPL being shifted abroad, even the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) has stated that it would speak to the Government and Indian board to find out if Pakistani players can take part in the lucrative competition now.

National Security

The national security problems, arising from varied sources, are influenced by a host of factors among which are its past history, geography, colonial legacy, growing population, sharp social and economic disparities and complex socio-cultural and ethno-religious traditions which interplay freely in the country’s democracy. As many events in the past decades have shown, regional and global developments have also been impacting significantly on India’s security concerns. The shifting of the second edition of the Indian Premier League (IPL) Twenty20 Championship is a testimony to this fact.

The country has been facing increasing internal security threats in the past and today, public order in about 40 per cent of the districts is seriously affected by insurgencies, terrorist activities or political extremism. Since the early 1980s, Pakistan’s ISI has succeeded in launching terrorist activities in India.

People have been critical of the intelligence agencies and inadequate coordination between Central and State intelligence agencies. But the roots of India’s terrorism problem go much beyond the efficiency of intelligence collection and coordination between the Centre and the States. The malaise is, to a significant extent, linked to political corruption. In India, terrorist acts are invariably followed by mutual recrimination among political parties.

Political Permissiveness
Why is the Harkat-ul-Jehad-e-Islami (HuJI) able to get through Indian borders and why are hundreds of illegal Bangladeshis spread all over the country? It is obviously because of political permissiveness and vote-bank politics pursued by political parties at the cost of national security. There is no point in blaming any particular agency, administration or political party. Most of the political parties, administration and security agencies have adopted a permissive attitude over the years.

Transnational terrorist organisations have understandably taken advantage of the weaknesses of the Indian polity. Instead of recognising this basic weakness and coming together to collectively tackle the problem, party parochialism, personal antagonisms among leaders and the need to depend on money-muscle politics for electoral gains appear to have overwhelmed concerns over national security.

Time-bound Initiatives
The deployment of the Central Police Forces or the Army for carrying out anti-insurgency or anti-terrorist operations may not yield the expected outcome unless the entire State administrative machinery, led by the Chief Minister, devotes continuous organised attention to sensitively dealing with the root causes which contributed to the breakdown of public order.

Time-bound initiatives will need to be implemented to identify and resolve the social and economic problems or the political demands and aspirations of the agitating groups. Simultaneously, the entire apparatus of the State Administration would require to devote close and continuous attention to providing effective governance, systemic attention being paid to ending the day-to-day difficulties faced by the common people, particularly those who may have emerged on account of the ongoing disturbed situation.

To timely deal with the arising internal security problems, the State Governments need to exercise constant vigil, especially in regard to the complex pending issues, and launch prompt initiatives to open meaningful dialogues with the leaders of the aggrieved groups or communities. Past experience has shown that very high human and economic costs have to be paid if there is a failure to timely deal with the issues which can lead to conflicts and violence. The situation is further complicated when a violent agitation, arising from a sensitive demand or issue, is dealt with the application of force.

However, the continuing determined efforts of adversary external agencies to destabilise India by spreading religious fundamentalism, inciting tensions which lead to conflicts, and perpetrating violence and subversion have generated challenges which impinge on issues of external security management. As issues related to internal and external security have got inextricably interwined, the Centre should evolve a holistic approach to internal security management in close coordination with the States.

Lack of Cooperation from States
The Chief Justice of India Justice K.G. Balakrishnan has spoken in favour of an anti-terror law recently. The Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has lamented the lack of cooperation from the States. The consent of the States is required since law and order is a State subject under the Seventh Schedule of the Constitution. The point at issue has not been rightly judged. Terrorism and insurgency are not identical with law and order. Both are far graver. They fall under the definition of internal security and the necessary amendment to the Constitution can be effected with the cooperation of the right-minded political parties.

If one goes by the observation of the Supreme Court that terrorism is more than an ordinary law and order issue and that it relates to the sovereignty of the country, there is no need to take the consent of the States for the creation of the Federal Investigating Agency (FIA).

Certain laws impinging on law and order are awaiting the approval of the President, which effectively means the approval of the Central Government. Article 254 is relevant in this regard. It states that the President is not a condition precedent for passing laws by the States affecting law and order. If the laws passed by the State Legislatures are repugnant to the Central law, they are void.

What is urgently required is an appropriate legal framework and an extremely well-considered strategy which is expected in most effective coordination between the Centre and the States, to deal with each and every aspect of national security management.

World’s Cheapest Car: Nano Makes Commercial Debut

Tata Motors created history in Mumbai on March 23, 2009. Keeping his promise, made four years ago by Tata Group Chairman Ratan Tata to deliver the Rs.1 lakh car, has now been fulfilled with the commercial debut of the Nano. The occasion marked the launch of the snub-nosed car that was unveiled in January 10, 2008. Described as “People’s Car” by Ratan, Nano’s commercial launch marked a milestone in a journey, which was replete with controversies, hurdles and criticism from competitors.

Mission Accomplished

According to Ratan, the vision was to give the people of India a car which is not produced anywhere else in the world. Though Nano, which denotes high technology and small size, the Tata Group has tried to provide a reliable mode of transport to every Indian family. Tata Nano, the small-car with a huge following, entered commercial sector but the Rs 1,00,000 price tag that drove it to fame may not stay for long. The world’s cheapest car stable comes with a rear mounted all-aluminium two-cylinder 623 cc petrol engine meets all emission and safety standards.

The project was conceived in 2003 and has cost over Rs 2,000 crore. The company would use its Pantnagar facility, which has an annual capacity of 50,000 units, to roll-out the Nano until in Sanand unit in Gujarat goes on stream. The company shifted the manufacturing plant from Singur in West Bengal to Sanand in Gujarat following fierce political opposition. The new facility would have an annual capacity of 2.5 lakh units scaleable up to five lakh units.

Overwhelming Response
The initial response to the Nano has been overwhelming. Noddy-land car is expected to help the compny cross several milestones. It will make millions of Indians mobile. Ratan, who is himself a trained architect, wanted a car to tell enough to hold his 5ft tall frame. Ratan once joked in the factory that he wanted to drive the car himself at the launch. That is how the car gets its tall boy looks.

According to market research company Crisil, Nano's price reduces the cost of ownership of an entry-level car by 30 per cent and to below three times the cost of owning a motorcycle. This will make the car affordable to an additional 14 million families, including a section of 58 million two- wheeler owners.

Booking and Delivery
Now the Nano would be displayed at the company’s dealerships from the first week of April 2009. Booking for the rear-engine car that boasts of a fuel economy of over 23 km per litre will open on April 9 and close on April 25. The car would be sold to one-lakh customers to begin with and they would be chosen through a draw of lots. The delivery would start in early-July 2009.

The base model could easily have an on-road price of Rs 1.20 lakh after adding taxes such as excise duty, education cess and road tax, along with transportation cost, local taxes, insurance and registration fees and a lifetime parking fees (wherever applicable).In February 2009, Tata Motors had appointed public sector lender State Bank of India as the sole booking agent for the world’s least expensive car from the stable of Tatas. The booking amount is reportedly fixed at Rs 70,000. Customers would be able to book it with an upfront payment of Rs 2,999. Those who are not allotted vehicles would be paid interest at the rate of 8.5 per cent for the first year and 8.75 per cent for the second year if they choose to retain the booking.

New Segment
While the Nano will not affect the other compact cars in the market, it will create a new segment of buyers, mainly those who want to upgrade from two-wheelers to four-wheelers. The Nano has knocked its critics and the competition into touch, of that there is no doubt. It is not an apology of a car as many would have liked to have drummed into the unsuspecting.

The Nano is a properly thought-out design, efficiently packaged so as to use just so much material and not more, is safe (meets the frontal crash test limits and also the off-set and side-impact crash test legislation abroad), has a modern yet simple drive train which delivers performance as intended, can seat four in comfort, has all-weather protection, is contemporarily styled and is both fuel efficient and spews tail pipe emissions lower than some two-wheelers on the market. In fact, this is a car which the greens should embrace rather than oppose in their zealously misguided pontification.

Export to Europe
Ratan announced plans to launch an Electric Indica model in Norway and a US model in the next three years. The US has certain additional requirements that no other country needs and as result needs some redesign. It would develop a version of the nano with options the US market might want to have.

Exports to Europe would begin sometime in 2011 as the car has to meet certain requirements. India has been gaining significance as a small car manufacturing hub with small car exports of 0.3 million in 2008-09. Small car exports have grown at a compounded annual growth rate of 21 percent during the last five years and are expected to more than double by 2013-14.

The Nano initiative, entailing significant product design innovation and cost optimisation, further adds to the competitive edge of automotive manufacturing in India. Lower middle-income countries including India account for around 53 percent of world population, but only 13 percent of global car sales; ultra-low cost cars are expected to be a key driver for increasing the car ownership in these countries.