Peace Process in Afghanistan

The United States wants to put an end to its longest war, the war in Afghanistan. US President Barack Obama made this comment recently. Although many people do not accept this or do not want to accept it, these comments bear a strange resemblance to the comments made by the last Soviet President, Mikhail Gorbachev, when the Soviet forces were withdrawing from Afghanistan. Gorbachev really succeeded in ending the longest war in the history of his country, but it nevertheless cost the then Soviet Union and Afghanistan dearly. Although it portrayed Soviet defeat in Afghanistan in the most honorable way, it opened the gate for new long and frustrating wars in our country.
Does Obama also want to end the longest war in the history of his country the way Gorbachev did? Obama's comments clearly contradict comments made by the United States and its military commanders in the past. Previously, continued military cooperation and possible long-term US presence was emphasized. What has happened now that US officials are now showing an inclination towards ending their military presence in Afghanistan?
Legitimate Solutions
Meanwhile, Taliban leader Mullah Omar surprisingly showed in his Id message that he has revisited his previous position.
It is not clear how the Afghan Government found out that the statement is indeed issued by Mullah Omar because Hamid Karzai has constantly been in doubt whether the Taliban really stage attacks and kill people when they assume responsibility for such incidents. He had argued that since nobody has seen Taliban spokespersons, nobody can know that these persons who contact the media truly represent the Taliban and their leader). Mullah Omar said in the statement that any legitimate solutions to the Afghanistan issue can be considered. The Taliban leader has not explained what his group deems as legitimate, but it is clear that this group has constantly emphasized on a political role for itself under special conditions.
New Developments
Anyway, several points emerge from the US president's comments and Mullah Omar's statement:
First, when Obama says he will soon end the longest US war, he may mean he will do so to handle the financial cost the war is inflicting. The most recent report by the two Senate committees on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq says that 60bn dollars were wasted on two useless wars. The report emphasizes that 60bn dollars of taxpayers' money have been wasted due to suspicious contracts, lack of oversight and transparent mechanisms. This may have prompted the US president to speak about ending the war in Afghanistan.
Second, after Usamah Bin-Ladin's death, the 10-year war in Afghanistan, which the Americans regard as the longest war in US history, entered a new phase and many Americans said that continued presence of their troops in Afghanistan is no longer justified. It is also important to remember that the level of international interest in the menace of terrorism is not as high as it used to be and many people believe that the Westerners were mistaken in defining terrorism.
Third, the United States wants to have a long-term presence in Afghanistan and in the region, which can be facilitated if military bases are built. This is why the Americans are tying to have a strategic declaration with Afghanistan to achieve this objective and practically maintain a powerful and long-term presence in Afghanistan. To achieve this objective, there is a need to secure the consent of a number of powerful regional countries including Pakistan, China and Russia and it seems some countries have consented already.
Fourth, the government of Afghanistan has been busy trying to include a number of Taliban and their leaders in the political process and a number of countries supporting Afghanistan have agreed to this or have been encouraging this. Mullah Omar's statement can be viewed as a green light to the forthcoming talks in Turkey. The international community wants to hold a regional conference in Turkey and invite a number of groups and neighboring countries involved in Afghanistan before it holds the Bonn II conference. It is said that the conference can enable the Taliban to enter the political process in the country. Although the Americans have said that there is no place for the Taliban in the Bonn II conference, the government of Afghanistan has constantly emphasized that the Afghan delegation will be composed of one group under the umbrella of the government of Afghanistan. Karzai has extended an invitation to the Taliban to participate in the conference under these conditions.
Fifth, authoritarian circles within the government are trying to convince the United States and Western governments that the best solution to the crisis in the country is to negotiate with and give insurgent groups a share in the government. Therefore, the lengthy war is likely to come to an end through talks with these groups.
Sixth, the government of Afghanistan wants to convene a Loya Jirga or grand assembly of Afghans, which many analysts think would be a ceremonial event, to secure the agreement of the Jirga to the joint declaration with the United States and thus pave the way for the Taliban to enter the government.
Seven, Americans are not satisfied with what has happened in Afghanistan in the past 10 years and by having a regional ally they want to rid themselves of the need to spend heavy sums of money. It is not important for them as to who will ensure their interests as long as their interests are ensured.
Eighth, President Karzai embarked on a tour of Saudi Arabia shortly prior to Id ul-Fitr citing umrah (pilgrimage to the Holy Kaba in Saudi town of Mecca) as the reason, but Saudi Arabia had previously assembled a number of other Afghan groups. The statement by the Office of the President about Hamid Karzai's trip had alluded to talks with Saudi officials for peace in Afghanistan.
Ninth, these show that fresh efforts are being made to maintain the status quo while at the same time find a solution for Afghanistan. This can stand in blatant contradiction with the achievements of the international community in the past 10 years in Afghanistan. These new developments can also jeopardize true peace and sideline the enlightened and pro-reform forces in the country.

Riots in Ambon: Is It Indonesian Government's Negligence?

Riots have broken out in Ambon yet again. Five persons have been killed, several vehicles burned, and windows shattered. The clash that erupted between rival groups on 11 September has left much trauma. It is frightening, because people still feel the deep wounds of the long conflict in the land of spices since 1999.
The 11 September riots were sparked by a rumor about the death of a motorcycle taxi driver named Darwis Saiman. Several wounds were found on the victim's body. One version of the rumors said the wounds were caused by a torture. However, police said Darwis died from a traffic accident.
Gripping Tension
The rumors went like gasoline poured over the fire. Riots spread quickly. Residents burned motorbikes and rolled cars over. Ambon's quiet atmosphere suddenly turned into a gripping tension. Residents panicked, frightened, and then fled to places they considered safe.
Every conflict in Ambon has always been a nightmare. There is a dark and bitter experience that has not vanished. The prolonged conflict since January 1999 has claimed thousands of lives and destroyed almost all social orders. The conflict only subsided after the signing of the Malino II Agreement on 11 February 2002.
The prolonged conflict in Ambon should be a lesson for the government to maintain social cohesion. The government has to be more creative in finding social therapies to maintain the cohesion that has existed between the various community groups.
However, the fact that riots still easily erupt due to biased information shows how poor those social therapies are. Apparently the public does not believe the government's explanation, making them highly irritable and easily provoked.
Police explanation that the victim died from a traffic accident was not readily accepted. The public is more trusting of information they received from acquaintances, friends, as well as circulating SMS. Based on such information, the public acted. In fact, the information might have come from sources that were deliberately heating the situation.
Dialogue With Community Leaders
The government has always acted too late and preferred the role of a fireman. Deploying police in large numbers and sending reinforcements only after the public has gone mad and casualties have been inflicted. The government holds dialogue with religious and community leaders only when buildings have been destroyed, pelted with stones, and vehicles burned by the mob.
The Malino II Agreement should have served as a social asset. Dialogue with community leaders should be made monthly or three monthly menus for every regional leader.
We are very concerned because people have always become victims of officials' negligence. Because of the government's negligence, people have lost their lives and properties destroyed in flames. We remind the government that there must be assurance that every citizen in this country gets the comforts of life. We should not let people become wanderers trying to find quiet places; because there is no longer a peaceful place in this country.

India’s Industrial Production Dips

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is in an unenviable position ahead of its monetary policy review meeting scheduled on 16 September. It has to take a call on interest rates -- whether to raise them further in the face of continuing inflationary pressures or pause temporarily based on the latest disappointing factory output data. To its credit, the central bank has been much more realistic in turning the spotlight on the Indian economy's blind-spots than North Block. In its successive policy reviews, the RBI has not simply focused on inflation's stubborn persistence, but even warned of business mood dips impacting investment and consumption growth declining as interest rate-sensitive sectors face increasingly reluctant buyers.
GDP Growth
In fact, while New Delhi has tended to exhibit a misplaced optimism about growth prospects with its eyes shut, the RBI was ahead in scaling down its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for 2011-12 by a full percentage point to below eight per cent.
India’s GDP increased 7.8 per cent in the three months ended March 31 from a year earlier, the weakest pace in five quarters, government data show. Still, the expansion is the quickest after China among major economies, bolstered by higher incomes in the nation of 1.2 billion people. All in all, the portents for the Indian economy are far from encouraging.
Overall IIP
The latest industrial growth figures for July suggest that the slowdown that many experts and most policymakers thought would be temporary and narrow is, indeed, broad-based. The overall Index of Industrial Production (IIP) registered a year-on-year expansion of only 3.3 per cent, the lowest in 21 months. Manufacturing and mining grew by 2.3 per cent and 2.8 per cent respectively, while the 13.1 per cent increase in electricity was mainly a result of the good monsoon, which has helped boost generation from hydel stations. More disturbing has been the 15.2 per cent dip in production of capital goods, a proxy for investment activity. Even if one discounts for the unreliability of data for this sector -- leading to extreme growth volatility -- the fact that investment sentiment has been vitiated by recent political developments and concerns over ambiguous laws and tangled procedures among foreign investors cannot be missed. If industrial growth is slowing, there is the possibility of weakening demand on account of high interest rates further dampening it.
Growth in Mining Output
The growth in mining production was 2.8 per cent in the month, down from 8.7 per cent in the same month last year. Production of intermediate goods fell by 1.1 per cent during the month under review against a growth of 8.5 per cent in July 2010.
Consumer durables grew by 8.6 per cent in July as compared to a growth of 14.8 per cent in the corresponding month of last year. However, electricity production improved witnessing a growth of 13.1 per cent in July this year as against a growth of 3.7 per cent in July 2010.
Non-durable consumer goods (FMCG) production also grew by4.1 per cent in July, compared to a decline of 0.9 per cent in the same month last year.
Rate of Inflation
Persistent increases in its key policy rates over the past 20 months may have somewhat dented non-food 'core' inflation resulting from excessive demand. But the problem is that while demand in the manufacturing segment may have dipped, general inflation has not. Agricultural production has been tardy for quite a long time now. The services sector has been a saving grace but it cannot prop up growth beyond a point.
The international business environment continues to be bad and in fact deteriorating and with the RBI raising lending rates and tightening liquidity so as to check rampant inflation, the negative impact on economic activity and growth was not inconceivable. For once the Finance Ministry may be right when its Chief Economic Adviser Prof Kaushik Basu, says inflation will stay high until December. So the RBI, in a way a victim of its own success, will now have to battle high inflation and the prospect of falling output driven by weakening demand.
For policymakers it would be tempting to pass off the slowdown as partly the outcome of global woes just as earlier they claimed that inflation was also stoked by global commodity prices. But unlike the United States and the European Union, India did recover from 2008 with a smart pick-up in 2009. The current slide actually began in the past six months or so. And that has been the result of very successful monetary and very slothful public policies.