Friday, January 6, 2012

Story of China-Pakistan Friendship

A Persian verse is the true reflection of the China-Pakistan friendship. The translation of the said verse is: "a friend in need is a friend indeed."
Time has always proved that China is the only country in this world, which helped Pakistan in testing times. Although the United States also claims to be our friend but in fact it is a friend about which we can surely say, "the one who has friends like you, does not need heavens to be his enemy."
Foundations of Ties
There is no denial the fact that the credit of strengthening Pakistan's friendship with China goes to late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, whose efforts not only gave it a new direction but eternity. However, not many of us know that the foundations of the China-Pakistan friendship were laid by Pakistan's first Prime Minister Liaqat Ali Khan and Prof Ahmed Ali was the first person to hoist Pakistani flag in Beijing. Before performing this important duty he migrated from Hong Kong to China and established ties with the then communist leadership in China. Resultantly, not only Chu En-Lai, the right hand of Mao Zedong but the other senior members of the Communist party used to visit Pakistan's embassy but often used to sit and talk for hours in the night at Ali's home.
Late Prof Ahmed Ali does not need an introduction as he was in the vanguard of progressive writers' movement and was considered a famous writer of Urdu and English. He no only translated Chinese poetry prior to the revolution but owing to his emotional attachment, he also paid tribute to China in his poems. Ali's personal relations of Chu En-Lai played an important role in furthering China-Pakistan relations. Ali and his family were popular among Chinese and he used to celebrate his Eid along with Chinese Muslims with zeal and zest. Ali had a great affiliation for Chinese pottery, in addition to Chinese arts and paintings. He visited China for the last time with Pakistan's Prime Minister Hussain Shaheed Suhrawardy in 1956, which proved to be of historic importance for strengthening the roots of the friendship between both the countries. While appreciating Chinese, Ali writes: "Chinese are extraordinary self-respecting, practical and nationalist people. They are proud of their ancient history and culture. Affects of their culture could be felt world over. Chinese are proud of having an edge on the other nations of the world and their emperors used to call themselves "Tie'nTzu," i.e., sons of God. Chinese are patient, lively, energetic, and tasteful people. Their cuisine is popular all over the world."
Role in International Relations
Today, China is an excellent power, approved by the entire world, including the United States, the only superpower. Interestingly, the struggle by Muhammad Ali Jinnah and Liaqat Ali Khan for a separate homeland for Muslims of the subcontinent under the banner of the Muslim League coincided with the revolutionary changes in China in forties. Ali was in Nankeng at the time of partition of India.
After Pakistan came into being his family migrated and settled in the nascent state. Later on Ali also traveled through sea and joined his family in Pakistan. Soon he was appointed Director Foreign Publicity. His book the Muslim China was published in 1949 by Pakistan Institute of International Affairs Karachi. In the same year Chinese ruler Chiang Kai-Shek fled to Formosa after defeat and People’s Republic of China (PRC) came into being. Prime Minister Khan encouraged Ali's inclusion in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs because of his ability and knowledge about China. He took charge of Far East Desk in the Foreign Office. He introduced Pakistani leadership with the newly born PRC and its role in the international relations.
People-to-People Contacts
There is no doubt that Pakistan and China share relations higher than Himalayas and deeper than oceans. The sincere friendship of both the countries has become a precedent. Anti-Pakistan powers are worried and scared of this exemplary unity and solidarity. They cannot find a way to create rift between them. The clear and courageous support has pulled Pakistan out of isolation after killing of Osama Bin Laden. Therefore, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani's recent visit to China is much important. China has warned in clear words that no country has any right to violate Pakistan's sovereignty and integrity and no power in this world should dare look at Pakistan with malicious intent.
The most important quality of China-Pakistan relations is people-to-people contacts and both the countries consider each other as obligatory. China has openly announced that China-Pakistan relations would remain unaffected irrespective of any changes in the world. It is imperative that not only the 60th anniversary of China-Pakistan friendship was celebrated with extraordinary zeal but it should be fully reflected through the media. Meanwhile, issuing a commemorative coin will be appreciable. It is must be remembered that Pakistan was the first Islamic country to accept China.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Bangladesh Government Faces Challenge in Controlling Prices of Commodities

The Bangladeshis are bearing the brunt of rise in the prices of essential commodities in the international market. The poor people of the country are passing their days in hardship in spite of various social safety net programs of the government. A consumer at this moment has to spent taka 110 (Tk) for commodities which he could purchase with Tk 100 in 2010 because of rise in inflation. Under this ground reality, Finance Minister Abul Maal Abdul Muhith is going to announce the budget of the coming fiscal year (2012-13).
Economists and market analysts are saying that controlling prices of the commodities will be the main challenge in the coming budget. The prices of essential commodities made a further high jump because of a recent rise in the prices of fuel oils and CNG, and an enhancement of transport fares as a sequel to this.

Tackling Inflation
The finance minister will announce budget in parliament on June. This will be the third budget of the present government. Debates have already begun on what good news a hopeful Abul Maal Abdul Muhith will give in the new budget or whether there will be any surprise there. All are in unison that inflation is a big enemy of the economy at this moment. The finance minister himself has admitted that inflation is the main problem. Economists have suggested the government to ensure social security, including enhancement of food supply, to gear up rural economy, increase investment, and reduce the impact of inflation.
It was reported that the finance minister will undertake efforts in gearing up social safety net programs in the new budget for controlling the inflation. All existing allowances, including elderly and widow grants, will be continued in the new budget. But proposals will be made to expand the areas of allowances instead of enhancing the amounts.
Honorarium of the freedom fighters will also be increased. A special emphasis will be given to keep the food supply normal. For this reason, plans have been undertaken to build an adequate stock of foods. A proposal will be made to construct new warehouses to increase the capacity of food stocking.
An announcement of recruiting 100,000 new employees in the public sector will also be made in the new budget. A proposal for making the highest allocation in the education will also be made in the budget. The new budget will continue all existing stipend programs for the students. Like in the past, the energy and power sector will be given the highest priority in the fiscal plan.
In fact, tackling the inflation will be the main challenge of the government in the coming budget. He thinks that the government has no adequate mechanism in its hands to contain the price hiking. The government can keep the food supply normal and gear up the social safety net programs.
Maintaining the growth and controlling the inflation will be the main challenge of the government in the next budget. Adopting a monetary policy with more contractions for controlling the inflation. But the principle objective of the next budget would be to increase investment and employment by keeping the inflation under control.
The areas of Value-Added Tax (VAT) and tax would be expanded in the coming budget to increase revenue from internal sources. But no big change will be made in the tax structure. Additional 500,000 taxpayers will be identified for the expansion of area of income tax. The people will be given some sorts of relief from tax burden. In this regard, a proposal will be made to fix the tax-free income at Tk 180,000 for individual by rebating Tk 15,000. But minimum income tax rate at Tk 2,000 will remain intact in the budget.
For discouraging smoking, prices of cigarettes will be increased. A proposal will be made in the budget to restructure duties in car import to stop tax evasion. Facilities of tax rebate will be reduced to increase collection. There will be a proposal for expanding the tax net up to the upazila (subdistrict)-level. An announcement will be made in the new budget for paying VAT rate equally by all small and big traders for abolishing rebate facilities against value addition tax of VAT goods and service sector.
The highest 25 percent tax will be maintained for protecting the interest of the local industries, whereas a proposal will be made for continuing one more year the regulatory duties on all imported finished goods. An announcement will be made in the budget to increase the tenure of bond license from the existing one year to two years for the convenience of the entrepreneurs. A provision will be made for duty-free import of necessary equipment for building solar power plants for generating alternative energy to face electricity crisis. An announcement will be made for enhancing more two years the preshipment inspection system. The interest on savings certificate will be increased.
The new budget will make a set of reform proposals in the income tax sector. A proposal has been made in the next budget to realize an additional tax of Tk 55billion through increasing the tax net and taking various reforms and administrative measures. An announcement will be made to set up 100 taxpayer centers across the country to reach the income tax service at the doorsteps of the common man. Provisions will be made so that the taxpayers can submit their return online.
At present, Tk 0.40 (0.4 percent) is realized as source tax on the export earning of the garment sector. In the coming budget the source tax might be imposed on all the export oriented sectors other than garments. At present the eligible persons have been brought under the income tax net only in the urban areas. A proposal will be made to expand the tax net up to the upazila-level. The new budget will made an announcement on introducing Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) to settle litigations quickly for increasing revenue earning. Massive reform programs will be undertaken to make the National Board of Revenue (NBR) a powerful organization. The laws will be announced to make the VAT rules more simplified.
Prices of Essential Commodities

The inflation in March was at 10.49 percent on a point-to-point basis. This rate of the inflation is the highest after 2008. The people of fixed income group suffer the maximum because of any rise in the inflation. The negative impact of the inflation is that it does not increase the income at a rate the commodity prices make the jump. And as a result, the poor people lose their purchasing capacity.
The cause of concern at the high trend of inflation is that most of the people in our country live below the poverty level. This creates some sorts of unrest in the economy. At present the rate of inflation surpassed the double-digit mark. It has become a very difficult task for the common people to meet the cost of living amid the continuous rise in the inflation.
ADP: A proposal for a huge Annual Development Program (ADP) will be made in the coming budget for increasing investment in the public sector. The possible size of the ADP might between Tk 465 billion and Tk 470 billion. The resources committee has recommended for an ADP of Tk 460 billion. Prior to her foreign visits, the prime minister issued instructions to allocate more fund for the ADP. The Planning Commission has finalized the draft of the new ADP. The National Economic Council (NEC) will approve the ADP at the end of May following return of the prime minister from abroad.
A proposal has been made for allocating Tk 273.170 billion for the new ADP from internal resources increasing the domestic share in the program. The rest of the ADP fund will come from foreign assistance. There will be 1,013 projects in the proposed ADP. Of those, the number of new projects will be over 200. Most of these projects are under the ministries of local government and communications. Many people believe that these projects are worthless and those being taken in political consideration.
The Planning Commission said that a demand for Tk 620 billion has come from different ministries in the new ADP. It has been learnt that the proposal for maximum allocation in the newly proposed ADP is made for the electricity sector. The proposed allocation for the power sector in the new ADP is about taka 72 billion, which is 44 percent higher than that of the current fiscal year (2011-12). The allocation for the power sector in the current fiscal is Tk 50.170 billion. A proposal has been made for allocating Tk 11.140 billion for the energy sector which was Tk 10 billion in the current fiscal.
The Local Government Division has made a proposal for allocating Tk 95.550 billion in the new ADP for the development of rural infrastructures. In addition, proposals for allocating Tk 35.120 billion for primary mass education and Tk 21.430 billion for education ministry have been made in the new ADP. The implementation rate of the ADP still April was 60 percent.
Subsidy: Subsidies will be continued in the coming budget. A proposal has been made to allocate Tk 250 billion for the purpose. The maximum of the subsidy is given to the power and energy sectors. A sum of Tk 120 billion will be allocated for the power and energy sector. The rest of the subsidy money will go to agriculture, food, and social safety net programs and export sector. A big chunk of the budget money is spent for subsidy. At present the allocation in the subsidy sector is about 9 percent of the total budget. In the current fiscal year, Tk 170 billion was allocated as subsidies for different sectors. The amount in the revised budget increased to Tk 200 billion. Most of the subsidy money was spent in the energy sector as the prices of fuel oil increased in the international market. In this regard, economist and researcher Dr Hasan Mansur said that budget deficit would increase if the amount of subsidies rises. And this would leave a negative impact on the inflation, he added.
Size of Budget: The government is going to announce a big-volume budget in the coming fiscal year to boost investment. The outlay of the new budget could be at Tk 1,630 billion. Of this, revenue budget is Tk 117 0billion and development budget Tk 470 billion. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) target in the new budget might be fixed at 6.9 percent or 7 percent. The budget deficit has been fixed at 5 percent.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

New Geopolitical Equation in Asia

After the dramatic announcement of killing of Osama Bin Laden, a big change in the geopolitics of Asia has become evident centering the dilemma in the relations between Pakistan and the United States. Through this incident, signals are being received regarding a visible role of China and a shrink in the influence of the United States in this region as a split has been created in the relationship between Pakistan and the United States. The plummeting in the Washington-Islamabad relations first came to the limelight through the arrest of a US contractor Raymond Davis, who is known as a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) spy, for his involvement in the killings of two Pakistani citizens. After languishing for three months in prison, Raymond Davis was freed in March with the payment of blood money.
Since then, it was being thought that the US pressure on Pakistan would be mounted. Exactly this happened. Subsequently, the United States claimed that their commandoes have killed Bin Laden in a raid. Pakistan has described the raid as a blow to its sovereignty. However, the United States has brought an allegation against Pakistani intelligence agency for providing shelter to Bin Laden. Though a number of questions have surfaced centering this raid -- whether Bin Laden was really killed in the attack or he was killed much earlier or anybody else was killed in the name of Bin Laden.
War on Terror
Centering this incident whatever it might be -- the actual Bib Laden killed or no -- Pakistan is trying to come out of the influence of the United States, a long time friend of that country. Within 15 days of the killing of Bin Laden, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani visited China. The Chinese leaders categorically announced that Pakistan has significant contribution to the war on terror. This country is also a victim of terrorism.
The Western countries must show their respect to the sovereignty of Pakistan. The Chinese leaders further announced that Beijing will consider any attack on Islamabad an attack against it and China will always stand beside Pakistan. This announcement from Beijing in the face of an intense pressure from the west was not only a matter of ease for Islamabad, but a clear indication that China support Pakistan at the time of difficulty.
Building Gwadar Port
Massive steps were taken to enhance military relations between China and Pakistan during this visit of Gilani. The area of cooperation also includes transfer of military technology side by side with military assistance. China has assured Pakistan of supplying more than 50 JF Thunder Aircraft within a shortest possible time. In addition, the two countries have reached an agreement on purchasing frigates for the navy and training on operating submarines. Seventy-five percent arms of Pakistani Armed Forces comes from China. Very soon 260 Chinese fighter planes will be added to the Pakistan Air Force. It is being though that Pakistan is going to be a member of Shanghai Cooperation from an observer at the behest of China. And this might add a new dimension to China-India relations in the coming days. During Gilani's visit to China this time, the most important military on the agenda was the proposal of setting up a naval base at Gwadar Seaport, built on assistance from Beijing.
China and India have long been involved in a race for expanding influence in the India Ocean. Comparatively India navy is now stronger in the India Ocean. It can be said India has its hegemony on the sea. An intensive relationship of cooperation of India navy with the US Navy has been added to this. China has to import its fuel oil from the Middle East through the narrow strata of Malacca under the India-US naval surveillance. During any adverse situation the India-US naval power may close down this supply route for China. Alternative sea routes are very essential for China. Beijing is going to be achieved this opportunity this time completely. Gwadar seaport has multifaceted military significance. Virtually this port will be the main center for China to maintain its influence in the southern seacoast of Asia. From there China will be able to maintain its surveillance on the Indian and US Naval Forces.
Gwadar Seaport is very close to the seacoast of Oman. The distance of the Persian Gulf from here is not so far. Before 1958, Gwadar was under Oman. Later, the area was handed over to Pakistan. In 1973, US President Richard Nixon visited Pakistan. During the visit, the then Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto requested Richard Nixon to help building a seaport at Gwadar. Bhutto proposed that Pakistan would ensure benefit of the US Navy from Gwadar if the port was built with assistance from his country. But Nixan did not make any response to that proposal.
Failing to get any support from the US for building the seaport at Gwadar, Pakistan did not abandon its plan in this regard. Later, they sought helps from China in this regard. The work on building the seaport began in 2002 with assistance from China. China invested $200million for construction of the seaport. The first phase of the construction of the port ended in 2006. Singapore Port Management Authority was given the responsibility of running the port. Now China will be given the responsibility of running the port from Singapore Port Authority. A decision has been taken to review soon the port management by Singapore Port Authority.
The work on establishing direct road and railway communications with China from Gwadar seaport has begun so that oil tankers could be transported to Chinese territory from the port. China began the expansion of road network on Karakoram Highway from Gilgit in Pakistan to Xinjinag province of China. In 2006, Islamabad and Beijing signed agreement to build a road from Kashgar in China to Abbottabad in Pakistan. The two countries took the decision of constructing an alternative land route in consideration that Karakoram Highway might be risky for bigger containers. Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari visited China in July 2010. During his talks with Chinese President Hu Jintao, a decision was taken to set up 3,000 km railway line from Kashgar to Gwadar.
Security experts believe China will use this port equally both for civil and military purposes. Chinese ships will not anchor at the port only, but its submarines use the same as a base. In a recent report by New Delhi-based Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis said this port is a threat to India. Gwadar Port is very close to Hormuz strata. During any adverse situation, Pakistan might impose restriction on this route. However, Beijing will be able to conduct a complete surveillance on Indo-US naval maneuverings in the Arab Sea and Persian Gulf.
Pressure From Western Countries
Both the United States and India are worried over this strategic and military cooperation between Pakistan and China. Many people think the conflict between the CIA and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is rooted in the relations between China and Pakistan. It seems that the US has toned down to Pakistan as Islamabad successfully played the China card in face of relentless pressure from the Western countries.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a surprised visit to Pakistan along with Admiral Mike Mullen, then chairman of the Joint US Chief of Staff. Hillary announced that the United States will continue its cooperation and the war on terror with Pakistan. So long the United States has been alleging that Bin Laden had been hiding inside Pakistan with helps from Pakistani intelligence officials. But during her visit to Islamabad, Hillary said she did not believe top Pakistani official knew about the hiding of Bin Laden in that country.
The US security adviser has already announced that Washington's assistance to Pakistan will not be stopped. The US concern has started unfolding at a time when Pakistan is set to go under the total influence of China.
Despite conducting drone attacks inside Pakistan to eliminate the Taliban militants, the United States has been holding talks with the Taliban at the mediation of Turkey. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials have already held meeting with mid ranking Taliban leaders. Recently, former NATO official and former foreign minister of Turkey Hiqmat Setin said that Turkey was going to hold high level talks with the Taliban soon.
It is being observed that the United States contact with the Taliban still exists. However, Pakistan has been made the target of the Taliban. Questions have now been raised from inside Pakistan about the motive behind the recent attack on Pakistani naval base in Karachi and destruction of two naval surveillance aircraft. Whether any special message is being given by this type of attack. It has become clear from the nature of the attack that the target of the raid was to hit the military strength of Pakistan. A section of the mass media in Pakistan has alleged that those who have been conducting this type of attack in Pakistan in the name of the Taliban have special links with the US and Indian intelligence agency.
Pakistan's Military Cooperation with China
However, India has already expressed concern over Pakistan's military cooperation with China. Following the claim of killing Bin Laden at Abbottabad by the US force, a hint was given from New Delhi that India might conduct similar attack on Pakistan. The reaction shown by Pakistan in response to that desire of New Delhi is another cause of concern for India. Pakistan made it clear that if India dared to conduct such raids Islamabad will limited scale nuclear weapon or tactical nuclear arms. It was not so long known that Pakistan has such sophisticate nuclear arsenals.
At the same time, India plunged into another diplomatic difficulty. India handed over a list of 50 terrorists residing in Pakistan to Islamabad authorities and demanded their extradition for trials. The following day reports were published in the Indian newspapers that two of the listed terrorists detained in Indian prisons. Indian wanted to mount pressure on Pakistan in line with the United States, but they himself got entangled in trouble. And as a result, the image of India was tarnished.
After the killing of Bin Laden, the competition launch between the United States and China for expanding influence centering Pakistan gives a signal of a new strategic equation of the Asian superpowers. Iran has also joined the race. Iran has already expressed its solidarity with the integrity of Pakistan. It is being thought that Pakistani military officials have been maintaining contacts with Iran.
Importance of Islamabad
Except China, Pakistan has taken initiative of enhancing cooperation with Russia. President Asif Ali Zardari had already visited Russia. He was given a rousing reception in Moscow. The new relations of China and Russia with Iran and Pakistan could turnout to be a big concern for the United States in future. This will make the position of US-led NATO force in Afghanistan weak, and also deal a blow to the US initiatives of establishing control over the energy resources in Central Asia. In addition, Russia, China is also enhancing its influence in the Central Asia. A cooperative relation between China and Pakistan will help Beijing to make another step forward in expanding its influence in this region. Because of road communication with Central Asia and port facilities, the importance of Pakistan has increased. Despite multifaceted pressure from United States and acts of sabotage inside the country, Pakistan is playing the cards of its good relations with China and Russia because of its geostrategic position. And this is the main weapon of Pakistan. Because of this it is very easy to criticize Pakistan, but difficult to avoid.