India-Pakistan Dispute and Mediation by Saudi Arabia

Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh is on a visit to the Saudi Arabia, but even prior to the details being made available on the visit, a statement made by Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor has come into limelight that has received widespread condemnation. The delegation accompanying the prime minister includes Tharoor.

Addressing the media persons at Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, he stressed that the help of Saudi Arabia needs to be sought in settling the India-Pakistan dispute. This led to a ruckus in political circles in India.

Intervention of Third Party
All those political parties that are against any kind of mediation from a third country in the dispute between India and Pakistan geared up to attack Tharoor. During Holi when colors should be used, the game of mudslinging started. All these political leaders who, perhaps, continue to be present in the offices of TV channels immediately came before the cameras to spit venom against him.

They all began to condemn him, saying that to make Saudi Arabia a mediator in the India-Pakistan dispute has broken an age-old tradition. These leaders maintained that the intervention of a third party in the India-Pakistan disputes would harm India's interests.

Reason Behind Opposition
The main reason behind the opposition to Tharoor's suggestion is that all politicians in Pakistan continue to harp that some third country should mediate between the countries to get their dispute resolved. Saudi Arabia is the third country, after the United States and the United Kingdom, which would be greatly welcomed by Pakistani politicians if it dons the mantle of a mediator.

Readers may recall that in the wake of the India-Pakistan war 1965, the then Soviet Union played the role of a mediator and an agreement was reached between the then Indian Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri and Pakistani President General Ayub Khan at Tashkent (Shastri passed away within hours of signing the agreement).

After the 1971 war, India refused to accept the mediation from a third country. India asked the then Pakistani Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto to visit India to hold peace talks. Consequently, the Shimla Accord was signed. Since then politicians in Pakistan adopted the stand that whenever there was any dispute between the countries, they endeavored to get it resolved by bringing a third country as a mediator. Yet, India continued to maintain that there was no need of a third party to mediate between them. So much so Indians do not even like to hear such a thing from anyone. That is why when Tharoor was said to have maintained that Saudi Arabia should act as a mediator between India and Pakistan, guns were set against him and politicians enjoying Holi holidays forgot about the celebration and plunged into the political arena.

After the ruckus began to take an ugly overture, Tharoor wrote on Twitter that journalists could not grasp his English. Explaining, he said that he had used the word, "interlocutor" which is not the same as a "mediator." He added the word interlocutor stands for a person who conveys the message from one person to another.

He said that both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are bosom friends and, therefore, Saudi Arabia can act as an effective interlocutor. The dictionary meaning of the interlocutor in the Urdu dictionary is a person who participate din question and answer while the English dictionary says that an interlocutor is a person who conveys the message from one government to the other and also the reply from that government to the former one. Clearly, it is no mediation. Indeed, it is a kind of a help under which the two governments concerned can easily comprehend each other.

Possible Help to Taliban
As far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, it is the second largest and major US ally, after Israel in the Middle East, while Pakistan is the major US ally in South Asia. Friendship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is very deep. It would, therefore, be more then happy to act as a messenger in the dialogue between India and Pakistan.

It is common knowledge that once Saudi Arabia extended all possible help to the Taliban. It was the first country in the world that recognized the Taliban government in Afghanistan, yet the Taliban were sworn enemies of the United States. Relations between Saudi Arabia and the Taliban turned sour and the Taliban began to target Saudi Arabia for terrorism. In the same way, Pakistan had also not only extended all help to the Taliban but also nurtured them. Now, the Taliban are Pakistan's deadliest enemy. The Taliban are India's enemies since their inception. That is why Saudi Arabia at least can extend some help to India in dealing with the threat from the Taliban.

Time Ahead
Tharoor has been a successful diplomat and has held the office of the UN under secretary general. He understands international issues very well. Therefore, instead of targeting him for his assertion, there is the need to test it on the criteria of international interests. Neither the External Affairs Ministry nor the prime minister office has reacted to it, yet.

Yet, news agencies have issued news items with reference to the prime minister office that the government is greatly surprised at the statement made by Tharoor. The situation may become clear only after the prime minister returns from Saudi Arabia or a statement issued after the conclusion of the visits. The prime minister may explain the issue to the media persons accompanying him.

China Next Target for Terrorists

Terrorists have targeted the Pakistani people and security forces in different parts of Pakistan without a break, and it would prove to be quite upsetting if we were to present the facts and figures of these losses. It is apparent from these figures that Pakistan is facing a highly organized and dangerous enemy. A few days ago two reports were made public which honestly presented the financial and human losses suffered by the Pakistani people and our security forces over the past few years.

Investigating Report
The first report was prepared by the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR), and the second by a credible research institute, known as the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies. This report was based on the details of the events of the year 2009. According to the ISPR report, from 2009 to date a daily average of 10 security personnel were killed.

Without going into detail, the crux of the report is that, during the past few years, terrorists have martyred 2273 soldiers, 78 officers, and 21,672 civilians. The report also states that the total number of security personnel killed, including police personnel, comes to 8,785, while the total number of casualties, including civilians and security personnel, is 30,452. The report also said that 17,742 terrorists have been killed or arrested since 2002.

Increase in Terror Attacks
The increase in terrorist attacks during the year 2009 can be gauged from the fact that the number of civilian and security forces killed is ten thousand. The other report is called the Security Report, 2009. According to this report, terrorist attacks increased during the year 2009 compared to previous years, and 12,632 people were killed during the year. In 2009, 87 suicide attacks were carried out. At least 70 per cent of these attacks took place in the NWFP, where 1,137 were killed, destabilizing the province itself.

The report said that during the year 2008, around 963 persons were killed in a total of 63 suicide attacks, and during the year 2009, a total of 1300 persons were killed in 87 suicide attacks. Details of other attacks, including suicide attacks, were also given. In the NWFP (North West Frontier Province) there were 1,137 attacks, in the Tribal Areas there were 559, in Balochistan 792, in the Punjab 46, in Sind 36, in Islamabad 12, and in Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir 5 attacks each were reported. The report said that during the year 2009, some 12,632 people were killed and 13,815 injured in suicide attacks, Drone attacks, target killings, and sectarian clashes.

The report also indicated that during this year, the city of Peshawar was targeted repeatedly, and reached a peak by early 2010. During the year 2009, Peshawar was targeted by 170 suicide attacks and bomb blasts, which killed 450 people in the city of Peshawar alone. Most of the killed were common, helpless, unarmed civilians. The report also said that the centers of terrorism in Southern Punjab dominated the terrorist scene during the year 2009, and 50 per cent of the terrorists active throughout the country belonged to this region.

The said that terrorists were more trained and better equipped than the police and other security agencies, while a clear lack of effective coordination and collaboration between the police and other security and intelligence agencies was acutely obvious.

Facts and Figures
If we compare the facts and figures of the year 2009 with previous years, we discover that not only did the terrorists have an edge over security personnel, they also did not spare any area or city of Pakistan, including Islamabad. It was also confirmed that the number of casualties continued to increase, and an increasing number of civilians were targeted. These facts and figures should be a matter of concern for those people who have justified the actions of the terrorists through various arguments and justifications, and still continue to say that the attacks carried out within Pakistan are a reaction to the US presence.

However, February 2010 has been comparatively peaceful, but the latter half has been marred by almost daily attacks. Three days after an attack in the Khyber Agency, police personnel were targeted by two suicide attacks in the beautiful city of Mansehra, in Hazara region. This not only indicated the presence of terrorists throughout the country, but also revealed the dangerous strategy of local and foreign anti-Pakistan elements.

In addition to the Chaman and Torkham routes, terrorists planned to target the Silk Road as well since it is the major trade route between China and Pakistan. In other words, these terrorists have decided to apply the same formula against China which they have been using against the United States. There is a need to look at the Mansehra attack in the background of the Silk Route, instead of considering it as a typical attack.

Threat to Silk Route
The people who consider it to be a normal attack must keep in mind that there have been attacks in this beautiful valley in the past as well. Mansehra has been a training center of two Jihadi groups in the past. And the roads and routes in the hills of this area can easily provide access to Kashmir, China, the Northern Areas of Pakistan, and Swat. Therefore, such elements will not ignore the geographical location of the region, given that they have plans to further their hostile agendas in order to become a part of some international agenda in the backdrop of Pak-China relations.

This background should also be kept in view considering that just a few kilometers from this region is the area of Kala Dhaka, which has been used as a main route by Jihadi and militant forces in the recent past. Not far from this area is the military academy of Kakul, from where the borders of Kashmir and Swat are quite near.

It is the duty of the policymaking institutions of Pakistan to begin work on a plan to secure the major trade routes between Pakistan and China against terrorists. Otherwise, this belt will not only be occupied by anti-Chinese forces, but Pak-China friendship itself will be endangered, and the future of the Silk Route seriously threatened.

Thaksin To Involve International Community in Thai Politics

In addition to shouting out his "challenge" to his opponents, former Prime Minister Police Lt Col Thaksin, the defendant in the B76-billion assets-seizure case, also sent his latest message through a video-link to the participants in a seminar organized by the "Bangkok '50 Group." His message focused on the key issues and dealt a blow to every one involved in this historic court case.

In his message, Police Lt Col Thaksin clearly spelled out in threatening tone that if his assets were seized, he would fight back with all his might in 2010.

In his statement through a video-link on 22 February 2010, Thaksin said: "Today if both sides take a few steps back, Thailand will be able to return to normalcy; but if they want to crush me to death, 2010 will be a year when all hell will break loose."

Thai Judiciary System
On top of that, Police Lt Col Thaksin emphatically referred to the "charismatic person" (Privy Councilor President Gen Prem Tinnasulanon), saying that the latter sneakily ordered all state machinery, as well as the previous Election Commission, to attack him. More significantly, he indicated that the Thai judiciary system was interfered with. He said that if he would be slapped with unjust verdict on 26 February, he would try to petition the World Court!

Evidently, this was not the first time that Police Lt Col Thaksin tried to involve the international agency in his case. He has repeatedly tried to do that. When he was toppled from power by a coup in 2006, in addition to his angry diatribe against the "new power" and the charismatic person, Privy Councilor President and Statesman Gen Prem Tinnasulanon, Police Lt Col Thaksin also amplified the issue by veering into the question of justice. He rejected the Thai justice system directly in his own words and indirectly though his bosom buddy, Cambodian Prime Minister Somdet Hun Sen.

His words at the time when he was toppled from power and his words today when his assets are about to be seized might differ to some degree, particularly as he is facing the uncertain future and when it is difficult to predict the result of the court case.

Bureaucratic Polity
By mentioning the World Court amid his supporters, Police Lt Col Thaksin meant to discredit the Supreme Court that is about to rule on the assets seizure case in the next few days by demanding justice even though he did not know whether his assets would be seized or not. Moreover, he what he wanted to see after the attack on the Thai justice system is to rally his supporters to demonstrate after the verdict day. In other words, he already started his rabble-rousing campaign in advance, in case his assets might be seized.

If Police Lt Col Thaksin loses his case because his opponent chooses not to compromise and negotiate with him, or grant him amnesty despite his signals that he wanted it, Police Lt Col Thaksin's next move after the verdict day might be to elevate the issue onto the international stage and use all the multimedia channels in his hand to rally the international community again to jointly pressure the powers-that-be in Thailand.

In tandem with the red-shirted mob, he will finally resort to "the world besieging Thailand" tactic again in a bid to undermine the Thai government and the bureaucratic polity, so that he will be able to fulfill his dream of returning to power soon.