Prime Minister's Peace Message

Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh's message of peace from Kashmir, which is weary of the terrorist game, to Pakistan rocked by terrorist explosions may seem to be nothing more than political jugglery. Burning with the fire set by terrorists, Pakistan has yet to react to this gesture. Nevertheless, double-faced parties in the valley like separatists and the People's Democratic Party were quick with their adverse comments.

Their frustration is, of course, not unexpected. They have been deceiving the common man by their negative approach and scaring them to save their faces. The Prime Minister had gone to Kashmir to present the state with a precious gift like train travel. But these parties had paralyzed normal life by organizing a strike in the valley.

Changing Face of People's Life
The Indian Prime Minister had invited all groups for talks without any conditions, and, thereby showed how generous the country is. In this way, he had rectified the mistake made in Sharm-el Sheikh in Egypt, which had later become a controversial issue.

The most attractive aspect of the Prime Minister's invitation was the reference to the opportunity for people on either side to interact and resume their relationship. The Line of Control (LoC) is the political wall dividing society of Kashmir valley into two compartments. This is the ideal formula for increasing mutual trust and translating this into goodwill. India and Pakistan had experimented such a step earlier in this century by running the Samjhauta Express.

Trade Cooperation
The people of both sides began to communicate with each other. The trade was started between the countries, especially in the divided valley. Since mutual goodwill was harming the ambition of terrorists in Pakistan and separatists in the valley, they started conspiring against India with new vigor. They began attacking India directly since it had become impossible to operate in Kashmir in a big way.

It is a pity that Pakistan understands the move of terrorists, and is paying a heavy price for nurturing them. Despite this distasteful situation, it refuses to accept the truth. As far as the Kashmir valley is concerned, the Prime Minister and Sonia Gandhi had addressed the public without any bulletproof shield in front of them. This has sent a very positive message.

Moreover, the government must also include the remaining two-third parts of the state, i.e. Jammu and Laddakh, as important participants in this dialogue. Giving importance only to the Kashmir valley will help in drawing conclusion that those who issue threats should receive prominence.

Taliban Determined To Defend Bastion in Pakistan

The car bomb blasts in Peshawar have given a message to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is now in Pakistan to give a reassurance of friendship and security to change tracks. Along with that, it has also given a warning to those women of Pakistan who go to Meena Bazaar to purchase cosmetics to closet themselves in their homes.

Specific Target
Hillary Clinton is in Pakistan to tell that there is no laxity of any kind in the relations, and the United States would always continue to provide support in the war against terror. Directly, in contrast to it, the Taliban want that the United States and NATO forces are withdrawn from Afghanistan and Pakistan, and they grab power in Afghanistan first and then in Pakistan.

Therefore, the blasts during Hillary Clinton's visit were carried out in Pakistan and also in Kabul's UN guesthouse. The peculiar aspect about the Peshawar attacks is that there have been 50 attacks here so far since June 2008 targeting civilians. The most intense attacks among these have started since the last week of September, killing nearly 200 persons.

Military Operation Against Taliban
These attacks have intensified after the military operation against Taliban began in Swat valley first, and then in South Waziristan. One meaning of it is that terrorists, frustrated and disappointed by the military operation, are now trying to exert pressure to stop the operation by targeting civilians. But that is not true. There have also been attacks on Army headquarters and police headquarters of cities like Islamabad and Lahore. Therefore, it does not seem right to say that terrorists have become weak and are targeting women and children in Peshawar in frustration.

Terrorists are facing the Army, and they are also targeting markets of Lahore or attacking Meena Bazaar of Peshawar, to change the middle-class lifestyle. This city on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan, which has been a center of terrorist activities since the 1970s, has become a sanctuary for the Taliban who fled from Afghanistan.

Today, neither the Pakistani Government, nor the Afghan Government is able to properly implement the US Af-Pak policy. In this situation, if US President Obama is preparing a plan to pay the Taliban who lay down their arms, one could assess the change that is coming after these blasts have crossed the limit.

Credit and Monetary Policy Still Influenced by Effects of Recession

Nothing new happened on 27 October. The script of the Credit and Monetary Policy announced by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor D. Subbarao was written by the RBI on 26 October itself during the quarterly review of Indian economy. Although it is being said for some time that India has now recovered from the shocks of economic recession, the RBI believes that it is still time to take steps cautiously.

CRR, Repo and Reserve Rates Unchanged
No change was, therefore, made in most of the rates. Neither was any change made in the bank rates, nor in Repo Rate, nor in Reverse Repo Rate, or in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR).

Obviously the RBI wants that steps that were taken during recession for relief to industries should continue. They should continue to get credit at lower rates.

Danger of Inflation
One thing became clear from the 26 October report that the RBI perceives the danger of inflation, in spite of the fact that the inflation rate was below zero until a few days ago, and is still quite low. But the RBI feels that it could go up in the coming days.

For that, by increasing the Prime Lending Rate (PLR) by one percent, the bank had already indicated that it does not want any more monetary expansion at the moment.

Common Man's Concern
However, the reason for the common man's concern is not this figure of inflation, but the inflation in food commodity prices, for which the RBI is also watching the Rabi (winter) crop like everybody else. Apart from price rise, the bank sees another danger in real estate business. It feels companies engaged in this trade could get into trouble, and has made provisions for disbursement of loans to housing companies more stringent.

One problem continues, which dashes the hopes of many. The kind of scene witnessed in the stock market after the announcement of monetary policy is the result of such sense of hopelessness of several trades.

While banking companies are troubled by some limitation on their business possibilities, housing companies are unhappy that they would not be able to get loans easily now. And when housing is jolted, it has to impact on steel and cement. If crops are good, everybody would recover from these shocks. And then, the economy would also be prepared for a progressive policy rather than the monetary policy for recession.

Reviving US-Myanmar Relations

When President Obama came to power, the US Government has taken the initiative to revive its relationship with Myanmar (Burma). After the US Assistant Secretary of State for Asia and Pacific Affairs Campbell met Myanmar's Science and Technology Minister U Thant in New York, there is a possibility that President Obama might also meet with Myanmar Prime Minister Thein Sein in November when Obama attends the APEC Summit to be held in Singapore in November. Meanwhile, we note that the junta government of Myanmar has also allowed western diplomats to meet with Myanmar's opposition party leader Aung San Suu Kyi to discuss the imposition of sanctions on Myanmar.

Toward New Approach
The revival of US-Myanmar relationship is more than a symbol of the restoration of a new era of US policy on Myanmar. This new US-Myanmar relationship can have a far reaching impact on the establishment of a new order in Southeast Asia and the future development of Asia as a whole.

From former President George W. Bush to President Obama, in the formation of Asian policy, the US policy has always been focusing on maintaining US economic interest as well as to ensure a regional security balance to the advantage of the United States can be achieved in this part of the world.

Economic and Political Strategy Framework
The United States is very clear that the political and economic forces in East Asian countries, including China, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN as a group, are growing steadily. Such development is bound to have an impact on the new international economic order. As such the Obama administration is gradually developing a set of comprehensive East Asia and Pacific economic and political strategy framework with the ultimate aim to include the East Asian region into US-led Asia Pacific integration. The United States wants to use such a strategy to ensure that the US national interest and US influence in the East Asian region can be sustained. When US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton attended the ASEAN Summit in Thailand, Hilary Clinton has already proclaimed in a high-profiled manner that 'The United States is back.' This is but a reflection of the concrete US Asian Pacific strategy that the United States is developing.

Myanmar is located at the gateway to Indo-Chinese peninsula, which is situated in an important strategic position. It is also adjacent to key ASEAN countries. The potential need of Myanmar for various types of infrastructure is extremely impressive. The potential consumer market for Myanmar's 57 million population can attract influx of businesses and enterprises from all countries in wanting to pour their investment in when the country is gradually opening up. Implicitly, there is also a tendency for Myanmar's economy to gradually emerging following the pattern of the economically success story of Vietnam.

Meanwhile, Myanmar also makes use of its potential economic conditions to develop closer political and economic cooperation with all ASEAN countries. It is also prepared to sign the ASEAN Charter of Human Rights in order to wipe the suspicion of the junta military government by the outside world.

Asia Pacific Strategy of US
For a long time, the United States cannot shake off its negative shadow about Myanmar when they think of the repressive human right record of the junta and the house arrest of Burmese freedom fight Aung San Suu Kyi. Therefore the relationship between the United States and Myanmar cannot be revived. But such delay in establishment diplomatic ties with Myanmar has affected the US enterprises that long have the intention to explore and develop the consumer market in Myanmar. As a matter of fact, faced with changing economic and political situation in Southeast Asia and Asia, the US government and businesses have long simmering with thought and proposal in wanting to revive the US ties with the present Myanmar Government.

If the junta Myanmar Government can move along the tide and gradually relax its political control on the movement of its political parties or to at least allow Aung San Suu Kyi to conditionally having some freedom to take part in political activities, we believe the US government will, based on the consideration of commercial interest, follow its 'Vietnam model' and relax its economic sanctions that have been imposed on the junta government of Myanmar for many years. This development will once again underscore the interest-led Asia Pacific strategy of the United States.

Malaysian businesses have long established certain degree of business operational base in Myanmar under the junta government's preferential trade policies. At present, Malaysia is one of the largest investors in Myanmar. Malaysia has already invested about US$1 billion in Myanmar including joint venture in offshore oil exploration, telecommunications and agriculture. Malaysia's investment in Myanmar exceeds US and European investors in Myanmar. We can anticipate that when the United States resumes diplomatic ties with Myanmar, US businesses will make massive inroad to Myanmar and thus catalyzing the development of a market economy in Myanmar. Such development should be to the advantage of Malaysian businesses that have already seized the trade opportunities and established their base in Myanmar earlier.

Improving Business System
However, when Myanmar resumes contacts with the United States and when US businesses begin to make inroads to Myanmar, the importance of Malaysia's economic contribution to Myanmar will relatively be reduced in the eyes of the Myanmar business sector. Such development might affect Malaysia's trading opportunities with Myanmar in the days to come.

There is a need for our Malaysian Government to do an in-depth assessment on impact of improved US-Myanmar ties on Malaysia. This is in addition to the fact that there are still many variable factors on how fast and how long the junta Myanmar's reform effort and its opening up policy can be sustained. In the past, a number of leading Malaysian business enterprises did suffer setback and resistance when they put in their money to invest in some key industries in Myanmar. This is another perspective Malaysia must include in its assessment of trade opportunities in Myanmar in the coming days.

Western Economic Sanctions
Faced with the ever-unpredictable situation in Myanmar, Malaysian Government should take full use of Malaysia's economic strength; and effectively integrate the private sector resources to intensify Malaysia's economic and trade ties with Myanmar using a variety of expedient means proactively and aggressively.

If Myanmar is able to gradually break away from the shackles of Western economic sanctions and gradually following the example of Vietnam in national development, we can predict that high speech development will happen to Myanmar. The main focus of economic development in Myanmar is on oil, fisheries, timber, and telecommunications. These fields are Malaysia's strength. The future Malaysia-Myanmar trade cooperation potential is not only great but also of mutual benefits.

Future Ahead
In this round of US action in trying to resume diplomatic ties with the junta Myanmar, both parties must treat such development carefully, especially on the side of the United States to avoid giving the junta an impression that the United States is attempting to control Myanmar.

However, overall, one cannot deny the fact that in this round of diplomatic exercise, the United States is undoubtedly the biggest winner. The improved US-Myanmar ties will also cast a long term and far reaching impact on the strategy situation in the East Asia Pacific region.

Developed Nations Ignores Threat of Climate Change

The much-publicized international conference organized in New Delhi recently on climate change ended without any concrete conclusion. Developed countries are not ready to give green technology to developing countries at cheap rates. It was expected that an agreement on it would be reached during the Delhi conference, but they have only disappointed us.

Rapidly Emitting Comparatively Gases
It is clear that there is no change in the attitude of developed countries. Even after struggling hard at Kyoto, Bali, and the UN, they are ignoring the imminent threat of climate change.

The figures released by UN show that developed countries are rapidly emitting comparatively more gases, whereas the rate of gas emission by developing countries is much lower in comparison to them.

Prohibitory Laws
The developed countries expect developing countries, which are facing the serious problem of poverty, to cut down their emission to the expected level, but they themselves are not ready to do it. In addition to that, they are also trying to exert pressure on weaker countries by passing prohibitory laws.

In this situation, developing countries cannot be tied down in any legal limit at the cost of their development. They would decide about cutting down emission on their own, looking at their needs. In this context, developing countries have seen a new ray of hope by the agreement between India and China, recently.

India, China Talks At ASEAN Summit

Despite differences of opinion, the balance in political India-China relationship will remain unaffected. The existing bi-lateral issues will be solved through discussions. This was obviously the message conveyed by the meeting between Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh and Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao in Thailand. This can be regarded as a ray of hope amid tension between the countries over Arunachal Pradesh and Dalai Lama.

Undeniable Fact
Prime Minister Dr. Singh usually creates a good impression on those he meets and Wen Jiabao was no exception. That is why he expressed his enthusiasm after the meeting. This might be a normal diplomatic etiquette. Yet, if it is followed by a resolve to trust, goodwill and better understanding of each other, efforts made to carry it out must be taken seriously. No controversial issues were taken up at this meeting and rightly too.

What is an undeniable fact is that Arunachal Pradesh is India's integral part. Recently, elections have been held there and the Congress party won by a huge majority to form the government in the state. However, the External Affairs Ministry regards Dalai Lama as a religious leader. Therefore, he is free to go anywhere he wants. This meeting will be considered as successful only when China stops issuing provocative statements. China must also appreciate India's concern if it builds a dam on the Brahamaputra River to run its projects in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Increasing Trade Cooperation
Therefore, it is necessary to start the process of a dialogue on these questions. Normally, collaboration on other fronts plays a major role in making this possible. The new India- China equation being formed with the United States on climate change, or the ongoing meeting between the ASEAN countries and East Asia for increasing trade cooperation can be of immense help to the countries in this regard. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has been emphasizing the need for the country to "look east" for some years. The trade agreement reached with the ASEAN countries in August was an important step taken in that direction.

As India becomes more active in the changing economic relations in Asia, it will be easier to solve border and political disputes with neighbors like China, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar. Japan is eager to have an Asian Union similar to the European Union.

China is likely to object to India's presence and importance in it. Nevertheless, India must try to solve these knotty problems instead of being instigated by them. This will speak volumes about our diplomatic skill. It will also pave the way for a better understanding with China.

Growing Tension
After the recent tension and war of words between India and China, the friendly attitude displayed by the leaders of both countries at Thailand's tourist destination Hua Hin is important. In his nearly one-hour-talk with Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, Indian Prime Minister Dr. Singh has given his consent to developing mutual confidence and understanding, and strengthening bilateral strategic relations.

Indian External Affairs Ministry officials say controversial issues like Arunachal Pradesh and the Dalai Lama's Arunachal Pradesh visit were not part of the talks between the leaders. It seems these issues have been left for the talks between the foreign ministers of both countries to be held shortly. When two apex leaders meet, they give priority to improving mutual relations. As far as India and China are concerned, their relations in the past two decades have been full of ups and downs. Against this background, Dr. Singh and Jiabao have held talks on global, regional, and bilateral issues.

Toward Better Ties
Jiabao has termed the talks significant and admitted that both countries could establish better relations in the future, which would be in the interest of both countries. But how would this be possible when China is cooperating in projects in the northern part of Kashmir illegally occupied by Pakistan, and is following the policy of considering Kashmir as a separate country from India? While it professes to be India's friend, at the same time China is adopting the policy of power balance against India -- how could both these things go together?

There is no doubt that it would not be easy to improve relations that are uneasy, doubtful, and plagued with problems, but there must be efforts at making a meaningful beginning, even if success appears to be very far. Looking at the unipolar situation in the world, China needs India for the management of new world order, and to deal with the imbalance created by the present attitude.

Assessment
India also needs China, and this cannot be denied. This is the reason that Dr. Singh and Jiabao have reiterated in one voice that India and China would strengthen their relations keeping their mutual interests in view, and the disputes would not come in its way. This should be looked at as a beginning in the direction of improving relations.

Obama Shows Diplomatic Flair in Handling International Situation

When the Dalai Lama was in the United States, President Barack Obama did not receive the visiting Tibetan spiritual leader. But one cannot interpret that President Obama had refused to meet with and exchange view with the Dalai Lama.

President Obama was just waiting for a more appropriate time to meet with him only. The ability of President Obama in using this old but still effective diplomatic skill in handling US-China diplomatic exchange has reflected the reality that the new US President has mastered some of the subtle diplomatic skills in handling international affairs and situation.

Important and Bigger Ideas
In November, President Obama will meet with Chinese leader Hu Jintao in Singapore. Following that meeting at the APEC Summit, President Obama knows that he will have more important and bigger ideas he wants to discuss with the Chinese leader. China has long declared to the world community that the Dalai Lama is a violent element who aims to separate Tibet from China, but President Obama, his Democratic Party, as well as the people in the United States have their own judgment about the Dalai Lama that can be very different from China's perspective.

However, when the Dalai Lama issue comes out at the diplomatic level, the judgment on the Dalai Lama has to be put on a different perspective. As such, when President Obama needs to talk to Chinese leader Hu Jintao, President Obama of course knows that he cannot upset Hu Jintao by meeting with the Dalai Lama during the period close to his meeting with the Chinese leader. President Obama knows that by not seeing the Dalai Lama, he at least can temporarily avoid having unnecessarily argument with China over the Dalai Lama issue.

President Obama understands perfectly well that although most of the past US presidents did receive the Dalai Lama or did enjoy the friendship with the Tibetan spiritual leader, it is not too convenience for him to meet with the Dalai Lama in his capacity as the US President now. Although President Obama did not receive the Dalai Lama, he has nevertheless allowed his Democrat leaders, leaders in the political circle and the local community to extend warm friendship with the visiting Dalai Lama.

President Obama knows that the Dalai Lama has too many friends in his Democratic Party as well as his rival Republican Party. As such when the Dalai Lama was in the United States, the visiting schedule of the Dalai Lama has proceeded as planned. In retrospect, President Obama has followed French President Nicolas Sarkozy's method in handling the controversial Dalai Lama issue to extend his friendship to the Dalai Lama in this indirect manner.

Dalai Lama's visit to France
Dalai Lama visited France in 2008. Prior to the Dalai Lama's visit to France, China had already given stern warning to the world community. China made clear that whichever countries received and made contact with the Dalai Lama, China would consider these countries as not respecting the wish of Beijing. Since Sarkozy wanted to go to China to attend the Beijing Olympics, Sarkozy knew that he could not afford to provoke China. So, when the Dalai Lama visited France in 2008, the French President found an excuse not to meet with the Dalai Lama. But after Sarkozy finished his important dealing with China and during a considerable low diplomatic period when France did not have major issue to deal with China, President Sarkozy did find an appropriate date and time to warmly welcome the Dalai Lama to France and compensated the temporarily broken friendship with the Tibetan spiritual leader.

Friendship Between Dalai Lama and US Political Circle
Such a diplomatic approach to see and meet with controversial figure at an appropriate date and time is simply and workable. As such President Obama has decided to copy such diplomatic pattern. We trust that after President Obama has settled what he wanted to discuss with the Chinese leader, he will pick a suitable date, perhaps during winter season, to invite the Dalai Lama to Washington for a visit. Yet there are many variable factors in international affairs.

Whether President Obama can find a suitable time to meet with the Dalai Lama will, to a great degree, depend on the US dealing with China. But since the United States and China will have frequent exchanges, President Obama might not have the time to receive the Dalai Lama. But even if President Obama puts his dealing with China above the Dalai Lama, we trust President Obama will not behave like the Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou who made effort to bar the Dalai Lama's entry into Taiwan. President Obama will show his diplomatic flair to allow the friendship between Dalai Lama and the US political circle and civil society to continue.

Development in Pak-Russia Relations

Pakistani Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani has recently been on an official visit to China. Other than meetings with the Chinese leadership, Prime Minister Gilani also met the Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's (SCO) annual meeting. According to the encouraging reports, from this meeting held few days ago, Pak-Russia relationships are taking birth again.

Four-Point Strategy
On the eve of the SCO meeting, the Pakistani prime minister believed that a permanent membership of organization should be given to Pakistan; moreover, the prime minister also suggested a four-point strategy for the extension of the SCO. Prime Minister Gilani's half an hour predetermined meeting with the Russian Prime Minister Putin continued for an hour and fifteen minutes, in which the Russian Prime Minister showed keen interest for the resolution of Kashmir issue.
The sources are also off the view that Russia has also purposed an arbitrator for resolving the Kashmir issue, which is quite an encouraging step. The Russian President while assuring the Prime Minister Gilani of supporting the comprehensive Indo-Pak dialogue has said that both the countries should continue talks, so that the peace situation in the region moves towards betterment. Russian Prime Minister Putin at that time offered assistance for the upgradation of the Pakistan Steel Mill.
The Russian prime minister also said that Pakistan is the most important country in the region, and we want to take this important country along. With regard to Pakistan's permanent membership in the SCO, Russia clearly stated that it will support Pakistan. Later, the prime minister addressed the Investment Forum, and requested the foreign investors to invest in Pakistan while assuring them complete security. While responding to a question regarding the Kerry-Lugar Bill, the prime minister said that parliament will take the decision regarding this bill.

Role of SCO
Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani's visit to China is of significant value, as the nominated prime minster officially visited the People's Republic Of China after a long time, and its fruits have started to show. China, who has cemented its dominance on the international economy, has always favored Pakistan on every forum before as well, and now by favoring Pakistan's policies to counter terrorism, China has once again proved that it is such a friend of Pakistan who is there to help Pakistan on every difficult stage. At least this is satisfying that Pak-China friendship does not depend upon the rulers; rather its roots are from the people of both the countries.
The role SCO is playing in the region, if we keep this in view than the Prime Minister Gilani's demand of permanent membership is extremely right and reasonable. Presently, the economical crisis of which Pakistan is a victim of, it requires that the countries which are the member of the SCO, according to Pakistan's role and importance should give it a status, which it deserves.

Resolving Kashmir Issue
The development in the relationship with the country like Russia started at a time when the US influence in the region was mounting. Pakistan always ignored the relationships with Russia on the US behest. The US role in Russia-Afghanistan war is quite evident on the entire world, and on that time dictatorship was dominant in Pakistan, and in such situations, decisions are independent and personal. Now when the democracy has emerged, the bilateral relationship development with Russia is extremely essential. The Kashmir issue is such a controversy amid Pakistan and India, whose resolution can only bring the wave of permanent peace in the region. Regarding this, Russia's proposal of an arbitrator proves that Russia is not unaware of the regional affairs.
It is a misfortune of Pakistan that its dictators, for their and US benefit did not allowed it (Pakistan)to secure a place that it deserves. The US intrusion in Pakistan always forced Pakistan to keep aloof with Russia. The United States is unable to control the Pakistani public other wise till now, distances would have taken birth between Pakistan and China as well. Presently, at this stage, when the entire world is a victim of terrorism threats, it is necessary for the Pakistani leadership to take such steps that considers good mutually peaceful environment with all the countries.
The progress in relationships with Russia is good news. It is required that Pakistan takes its decision like a independent state, and it should not require permission from a third country in order to increase relationships with other countries. It is the very attribute of a living nation, and Pakistan will have to adopt the same custom, so that Pakistan's future could prosper with the economical assistance.

Assembly Elections: Congress Continues Winning Steak

Continuing its winning streak five months after its success in the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress has got a shot in the arm when it notched up victories in Maharashtra and Arunachal Pradesh Assembly polls but the celebrations were somewhat subdued as the party’s performance in Haryana was clearly not up to expectations.

The Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) combine returned to power for the third consecutive term in Maharashtra with 144 seats in a 288-member Assembly. The party also raced to a spectacular win in Arunachal Pradesh for the second time, winning 42 of the 60 seats in this north-eastern state. These victories will strengthen Congress’s position at the Centre, giving it a clear edge over its allies, especially the NCP which has been forced to accede to its partner’s dominant role in Maharashtra.

In contrast to the other two states, the outcome of the Haryana elections proved disappointing for the Congress. The party was hoping for a sweeping victory after it won nine of the ten Lok Sabha seats.

Maharashtra
Of the 288 Assembly berths in Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP combine won 144 seats (four more than in the last Assembly), needing one more for a simple majority. On its own the Congress won 82 seats (69 in the last Assembly election). The Sharad Pawar-NCP was victorious in 62 seats (71 in the last Assembly election).
Congress candidate Rajendra Shekhawat, son of President Pratibha Patil, won from Amravati, defeating Congress rebel Sunil Deshmukh by 5,614 votes.

The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance was confined to only 90 Assembly berths, far behind its 2004 tally of 116. Raj Thackeray led his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena to victory in a dozen seats, tripping up the saffron combination. The BJP alone won 46 seats and Shiv Sena 44. Former Speaker and Shiv Sena leader Manohar Joshi said on record that the BJP-Sena loss was "due to the MNS cutting into our vote banks".

Haryana
Of the 90 Assembly berths in Haryana, the Congress managed 40 seats, 27 less than in the 2005 Assembly polls. The Om Prakash Chautala-led INLD with 31 seats in its kitty (nine in 2005) demanded that the governor first give the Opposition parties an opportunity to form the government. The Congress will take stock of the Haryana outcome and state chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda would be meeting the top leadership, including party president Sonia Gandhi. Sources disclosed that parleys are on to rope in the Independents to form a majority in the Assembly. Of the seven Independents, four were Congress rebels.

The INLD, which was routed in the last Assembly polls, made an impressive comeback. It had won only nine seats in 2005; this time it won 31.

Arunachal Pradesh
The NCP improved its tally to five seats from the two seats won by it in 2004. The All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), which made the electoral debut in the border State, also won five seats to finish at the second position jointly with the NCP. The BJP, which contested in 18 seats, managed to win three seats. It won nine seats in 2004.

The People’s Party of Arunachal (PPA), the lone regional party to have contested the polls, won four seats to finish third while one seat was won by an Independent candidate.

Chief Minister Dorjee Khandu and nine of his Cabinet colleagues were re-elected. Khandu has already scripted political history by getting elected unopposed for a record third time from the Mukto Assembly constituency in Tawang district that borders China. He was elected unopposed from the same constituency in 1999 and 2004.

Results At Glance
Maharashtra: 288 Congress-NCP: 144 (Cong: 82, NCP: 62) BJP-Shiv Sena: 90 (BJP: 46, Sena: 44) MNS: 13 Others: 41.

Haryana: 90 Congress: 40 INLD: 31 SAD: 1 HJC: 6 BJP: 4 Others: 8

Arunachal Pradesh: 60 Congress: 42 TMC: 5 NCP: 5 BJP: 3 PPA: 4 Others: 1.

Southeast Asia's Effort to Counter Terrorism

US Deputy State Secretary Steinberg said the killing of Malaysian terrorist Noordin Top ( Indonesian police) has a positive impact on Southeast Asian countries' effort to fight against terrorist activities. He said that the fact Noordin was shot dead has fully confirmed the determination of countries in the Southeast Asian region in wanting to eliminate terrorism.

At a press meeting held in Kuala Lumpur, visiting US Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg said that in the fight against terrorism, Malaysia and the United States have a strong relationship. He said the existence of terrorism is a potential threat to each and every nation. Such a threat has also reflected the need for all countries to continue strengthening cooperation among one another to curb the spread of terrorism. "Combating terrorism requires sustained efforts. We should work together. I believe that eventually we can make terrorism collapse completely."

North Korean Nuclear Program
Accompanied by senior White House officials, the US Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg paid one day official visit to Malaysia. When US Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg met with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib, both leaders discussed Malaysian-US bilateral issues such as trade, regional issues, and international issues relating to Iran nuclear weapons, North Korean Nuclear Weapon Six Party Talks and political situation in Myanmar.

In his address to the Malaysian media, Steinberg fully affirmed Malaysia's effort in fighting against sea pirates, and to prevent human trafficking activities. Steinberg stressed that the United States considered Malaysia as an important partner in ASEAN and that Malaysia also plays an important role in regional affairs.

In response to media query on the progress of the Malaysia-US Free Trade Agreement, Steinberg said that the two countries would continue to have bi-lateral trade dialogue. He hoped both nations could reach a consensus on free trade agreement. Meanwhile, Steinberg said the most important thing for the United States to do first is to focus on promoting the bilateral trade relations and to further enhance the bilateral trade volume.

Extradition of Malaysian Prisoners Issue
However, in answering media query, Steinberg said when he met with Prime Minister Najib, they did not specifically talk about the issue of extradition of Malaysian prisoners being held in the US Guantanamo Bay prison to Malaysia. However, he said that the United States has appointed a special task force to deal with the issue comprehensively and that if there is any progress, Malaysia will be informed.

Since 2003, two Malaysian citizens identified as Mohd Farik Amin and Mohammed Nazir have been arrested by the United States and they are kept at the US Guantanamo Bay prison in Cuba. Allegedly they were involved in Jemaah Islamiyah terrorist network activities and in the al Qa'ida terrorist network activities. Former US government led by President George Bush claimed that they attempted to participate in the al Qa'ida plan to stage terrorist attack in Los Angeles area.

ASEAN Faces Conflicts

Looking on the good side, the Association of South East Asian Countries (ASEAN) represents a regional group with high diversity in social, cultural, and political aspects, but on the bad side, ASEAN is one of the most chaotic groups.

Organization's Aspiration
In its effort to push for a single, unified community within the next decade, ASEAN puts up a front as a highly unified organization, but behind the scene it is rife with conflicts, particularly the territorial disputes, which go against the organization's aspiration to become a single community.

For example, the claim over Sipadan Island by Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia; Indonesia's acrimony when a Malaysian website claimed that Jemur Island in the Malacca Strait is a Malaysia's tourist attraction; the claims over the Spratley Islands by Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Brunei.

Malaysian and Indonesian Acrimony
On top of that are the political and social conflicts and various other hurdles during the past four to five years, such as the forest fire in Indonesia that sent hazy smoke all over the region; the conflict over the water trade between Malaysia and Singapore; the extradition treaty issue between Singapore and Indonesia; the Malaysian and Indonesian acrimony when Singapore filled the sea with land to extend its shoreline and territory; the bad feeling between Singapore and Thailand regarding the Temasek Holding's issue [Shin Corp share purchase]; Thailand's southern unrest issue that undermines the relations between Thailand and Malaysia; the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia that culminated in the burning of the Thai Embassy in Phanom Pehn, Cambodia; and the latest issue that involved Thai-Cambodia border dispute in the Preah Vihear zone.

Evidently, during the past four to five years Thailand has been at the center of ASEAN conflict. These conflicts and disputes are no minor friction, for example, Indonesia's accusation that Malaysia stole its national dance (Pentet dance) or Malaysia's accusation that Singapore stole its national dish.

Preah Vihear Dispute
The Preah Vihear dispute is the most worrying among all disputes because it has caused some deaths and it seems difficult to resolve.

In the latest development, Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Phirom proposed an intermediary agency to mediate the disputes among ASEAN countries and to find a solution for the Thai-Cambodian dispute over the Preah Vihear zone.

It is unclear whether the agency that Kasit is prepared to ask ASEAN Summit's approval to set up will be an ad hoc body or a permanent agency to act as a mediator for disputes among ASEAN countries forever.

ASEAN Suggestions
If it will be a permanent agency, one has to say that the idea sounds splendid in words, but almost impossible to implement in practice for the following reasons:

First, ASEAN already has its mechanism for dispute resolution, although it is a lame duck because of the members' negligence and complacency. The channel for talk to resolve conflicts remains just that "talk," but no solution. Setting up another agency will be a waste of time and money and will point to ASEAN's incompetence. Kasit himself said that he had met and talked with Hun Sen last week and had explained the situation and cleared the misunderstanding. Since there is an agency to do this, why do ASEAN need another one to do the same task?

Second, if an agency to be set up will be tasked to directly resolve the disputes, ASEAN countries will immediately feel embarrassed and reluctant. They will fear that the agency will try to intervene too much in their internal affairs. ASEAN countries take their internal affairs seriously and accept no intervention.

Third, it is feared that the agency will not be neutral because a neutral body should comprise members from outside of the group, so as to maintain absolute neutrality. For example, the EU's effort to mediate the dispute between Russia and Georgia, both of which are outside the EU.

Changing Scenario and Resolution
More significantly, all ASEAN countries know that they can hardly find neutrality from any country among themselves because of the conflicts of interest.

For example, if Thailand and Myanmar are in dispute, the mediation agency, or the arbitrator, or whatever one may call it, which comprise the other eight remaining ASEAN member countries will be tasked to find the solution. The resolution from this agency might be mistrusted or not accepted by the disputing parties. If the resolution comes out in favor of Thailand, Myanmar might make noises and accuse the mediation body of bias for Thailand, which is ASEAN's key member. If the result favors Myanmar, Thailand might complain that some member countries in the mediation body have enormous, vested interest in Myanmar.

Yet, there is another worse case scenario: The Spratley Islands and Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. If this case is submitted to the mediating agency, one would immediately arrive at a deadlock because, if all 10 countries are represented in the Spratley Islands territorial disputes, half of the members of the mediating body must be counted out in a bid to maintain neutrality since Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Brunei are all making claim over the territory.

The aforementioned scenario is not pointed out with the aim to accuse any countries, but simply to show the tendency of a situation that can develop when there is a conflict of interest. ASEAN countries are challenged by conflicts of interest since its inception 40 years ago, not to mention the protracted conflicts that stem for the past history. One can clearly perceive how much ASEAN members harbor bad feelings toward one another.

The Road Ahead
Consequently, it can be said that ASEAN successfully and admirably fosters speedy economic development, but incredibly lags behind in political development. The latest ASEAN Summit saw only some progresses in the establishment of human rights agency, not because ASEAN structure is inimical to it, but ASEAN countries' national traits disfavor intervention into other member countries' internal affairs.

It is not far from the truth to say that ASEAN's nonintervention principle is the most disastrous construct that ASEAN has ever created. Dozens mediating agencies can be set up by ASEAN, but they will always fail to resolve any conflicts and disputes.

Phuea Thai Expects to Topple Government With Censure Debate

The lack of a real leader caused the Phuea Thai Party to send conflicting signals regarding to the charter amendments, and thus throwing the party into disarray.

Chaloem Yubamrung, the chairman of Phuea Thai MPs, announced that the party would boycott the efforts of the tripartite whips--the coalition, opposition and Senate whips--to amend the Constitution. Chaloem claimed that the Democrat Party was not sincere in pushing for charter amendments but the coalition leader simply used the charter amendments as a pretext to try to cling on to power as long as possible.

He said the Phuea Thai has earlier resolved to oppose the six amendments as proposed by the reconciliation committee on political reform and constitutional amendments and the party is also opposed to the national referendum. He said he would have the Phuea Thai whips inform the tripartite whip meeting, held recently, that the Phuea Thai would pull out from the amendment process.

But what happened puzzled everybody because Phuea Thai chief whip Witthaya Buranasiri and other Phuea Thai representatives continued to participate in the tripartite meeting. They also expressed their belief that the tripartite whips' efforts to amend the charter were really aimed at bringing about reconciliation, not for buying time.

Six Charter Amendments
Witthaya said Chaloem made the announcement because he simply wanted to urge the government to have sincerity toward charter amendments. Witthaya said the opposition did not boycott the charter amendments as most people understood. So, Chaloem was humiliated by his own party members because the Phuea Thai whips still participated in the tripartite efforts to amend the charter.

This was not the first time that Phuea Thai leading members sent out conflicting messages but they did it several times already because they tried to steal the show to exert their leadership in the party when there has been no real leader. What happened caused the Phuea Thai members to feel uneasy because they analyzed that the party had fallen into the charter amendment trap of the government. These dissatisfied members saw that the Phuea Thai whips' decision to join the amendment process was tantamount to extending the government's term.

They know that the Democrat is trying to delay the charter amendments as long as possible by using the national referendum as a tool. Prime Minister Aphisit Wetchachiwa and the coalition whips said the amendments would take about nine months or might be done in about the middle of next year. Then, the prime minister would consider whether the House should be dissolved and new election held or not.

Now, the Phuea Thai's goal is to have the 2007 Constitution annulled at all costs as the party sees that this version of the charter was enacted to eliminate the Thaksin regime following the 2006 coup.

The easiest way to annul the 2007 charter, which will make the party look best and allow it to provide the best explanation to the public, is to call for the reinstatement of the 1997 Constitution. Using this strategy, the Phuea Thai will have a legitimacy to campaign to change the supreme law of the country, which is a sensitive issue that could lead to opposition from the members of the society.

But the problem for the Phuea Thai is that the government is now in control of the charter amendment game. And if the Phuea Thai abruptly pulls out from the amendment process, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the party will immediately be attacked that they are not sincere to support the efforts to bring about reconciliation. They will be criticized that way because the amendment process has progressed this far not because of the government or senators.

Six-Point Charter
Earlier political pressure related to charter amendments led to the formation of the reconciliation committee for political reform and constitutional amendments. The panel has studied the political problems and concluded that the Constitution should be amended in six points as following:

1. To change the way how MPs are elected by amending Article 93 to Article 98.

2. To change the way how to elect senators by amending Article 111 to Article 121.

3. To increase the government's power in determining what kind of foreign contracts that need to seek parliamentary approval before signing. This point need to be changed by amending Article 190.

4. To change penalties against political parties and lift political ban against the party leader and executives by amending Article 237.

5. To amend Article 265 to allow MPs to become political officials.

6. To amend Article 266 (1) to allow MPs and senators to initiate how to solve the people's problems.

Reconciliation Trap
However, the process has gone this far because of an agreement of all sides concerned to tackle the political crisis following the Songkran riots. The political violence prompted the government, the opposition and senators to jointly form the reconciliation committee. The committee spent two months to study the political problems and resolved to amend the charter in six points. The proposals of the reconciliation panel led to the formation of the tripartite whips to push for the six charter amendments.

And the Phuea Thai has joined every step of the process. Moreover, the Phuea Thai whips managed to raise their voice to pressure the government to support several issues related to the six amendments. And it has not been clear yet that the government is not sincere towards charter amendments as alleged.

In particular, Senator Direk Thuengfang, chairman of the reconciliation panel who is regarded as an impartial person, is still among the Senate whips who take part in the tripartite efforts to amend the charter. And all sides in the tripartite whips agreed to have a public referendum held on the charter amendments. As a result, the Phuea Thai has been caught in the reconciliation trap.

So, if it makes an about-face to abandon the amendment process, its image will be affected. As a result, it will have to a make u-turn to announce that it has not abandoned the reconciliation process as declared by Chaloem.

As we have pointed out, the six charter amendments are trivial for the Phuea Thai because its main goal is to kill the entire charter. Since it is forced to join the game in which it is on the disadvantage, the Phuea Thai must learn to make use of the tiny game to gain advantage in the main game - seeking to annul the 2007 charter.

Supporting Reconciliation
The Phuea Thai remains in the tiny game to retain its image as supporting reconciliation. At the same time, it also want to take advantage of the process to push for the point of the amendment it wants most--to annul the penalties of party dissolution and five-year political ban against all party executives if a party executive violates the election law.

For the main game's goal, the Phuea Thai wants to use the space provided by the tripartite whips to push for the annulment of the 2007 charter. It is seeking to annul the 2007 charter by announcing its stand against holding a public referendum on the six amendments. It claimed that since the government would waste up to 2 billion for holding the referendum, the referendum should be held on the main principle as to whether the people want the 1997 or 2007 versions of the charter.

Doing so the party will manage to keep its campaign "to bring back the 1997 charter" alive and the party hopes to use this campaign theme in the next election.

And the party will pressure Aphisit to keep his promise that once the six amendments are done, he will immediately return the ruling mandate to the people. So, the Phuea Thai will use the charter amendment game to besiege the government to leave the office as soon as possible.

Government's Problems
The Phuea Thai realizes that the longer the government stays in office, the more stability it will have and the more difficult the Phuea Thai will be able to topple the coalition or win the next elections. But if the House is dissolved soon, the Phuea Thai will have a chance to win the next polls.

The Phuea Thai expects that the government's problems will turn into a crisis that topples the coalition in 2010. The problems will stem from the disputes over the shares in the budget cake under the Strengthening Thailand stimulus package and corruption in the projects under the package, which have been exposed on the daily basis now.

And Phuea Thai plans to hold a no-confidence debate against the government in the next parliamentary session or no later than May. When the Phuea Thai exposes alleged corruption in the Strengthening Thailand projects, the party hopes that the government will run out of legitimacy to remain in office. By that time, the charter amendments will have already been done.

Attacks Against Government
By the time, the Phuea Thai may have already used the referendum campaign to arouse the people to fully want the reinstatement of 1997 charter. By that time, the Phuea Thai will step up attacks against the government and make use of internal rifts among the coalition partners together with Thaksin's popularity, which is still strong. Moreover, the party has begun pulling itself together after former Prime Minister Chawalit Yongchaiyut joined the party to unite the Phuea Thai members.

All of these factors will give the Phuea Thai not only a chance to win the next election, but also an opportunity to win its long-term game to annul the 2007 charter and dissolve the current independent organizations. It will be able to achieve those goals by drafting the red-shirt version of the charter and grant amnesty to the big boss and his cronies so that they could return to power again.

Implications of Kerry-Lugar Bill on Pakistan

The of the United States against Pakistan are very dangerous. In order to understand the Kerry-Lugar Bill, it is essential to be aware of the backdrop of this story. When we became the US ally, she started making long-term agreements with India all at once, which made us cynical and the world also started saying that they will leave Pakistan alone once again. At that time, present Vice President Joe Biden said that they would not leave Pakistan alone and that unconditional nonmilitary aid will be given to Pakistan for 10 years in order to maintain a long-term relationship.

This bill was unanimously approved in July 2008, but then it was postponed. Its purpose was to give the impression that Pakistan will not be left alone. But the duration of this bill was allowed to pass and no ultimate decision was taken on it. During this time, India managed to further strengthen its ties with the United States and Pakistan was presented with the revised Kerry-Lugar Bill.

The 10-year-period was reduced to five years and then this condition was imposed that Pakistan will be presented with a certificate each year to ensure that it is complying with the conditions, which means that this aid could stop anytime as was the case with the five-year aid to Ziaul Haque during the Reagan era. When Gorbachev announced his withdrawal, the certificate condition was imposed for each year to ensure whether we are fulfilling the conditions under the Pressler Amendment or not. This aid was discontinued from the day the Soviet forces left Afghanistan. Likewise, there is a condition that says that Pakistan will not sponsor terrorism in Afghanistan and India. It appears from the language of the bill as if Pakistan should be ashamed for sponsoring terrorism in India and Afghanistan and this is all happening on the US commands. If we don't get aid, we would have to beg the United States for it, and India and Afghanistan can use a minor incident as an excuse to put an end to it.

US Objectives
As soon as the US objectives are achieved, it will stop this aid through the use of premeditated allegations. In light of the experiences of the past, they can do it. Therefore, if the objectionable conditions are not taken out from this bill, Pakistan should reject it straight away because half of $1.5 billion aid will be spent on fulfilling their conditions.

After rejecting it, the United States will definitely provide us with unconditional aid because when Ziaul Haque rejected $400 million aid, calling it peanuts, the United States agreed to pay a bigger amount. As long as we consider this war as our war, we will keep suffering.

Financial Losses to Pakistan
These days, overseas Pakistanis are sending us more money than this aid. If more attention is paid to their priorities, they will send more. For example, if they send foreign exchange in the form of dollars, they should be paid 2 rupees extra for each dollar, then see how rapidly foreign exchange reserves will go up. At the moment, overseas Pakistanis are sending $8 billion worth of foreign exchange each year. If more incentives were offered to them, they would be able to send more. The foreign exchange is sent by those poor Pakistanis who went abroad seeking employment. The rich people of this country send their money abroad. The National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) is an example of this. It is repeatedly said that if the national wealth reserved abroad is brought back to the country, the fortune of the country could change. The rich people even bring back their money through "reference," which is not beneficial for the country. In addition to the language, the conditions of this bill are also humiliating.

The US clarification is just a formality; $1.5 billion aid per year is just an excuse. Out of these $1.5 billion, $200 million will be spent on the supervision of this aid. Pakistan will only get $1.3 billion. If this amount is divided by Pakistan's population, it is just $6 per person per year, which is equal to 650 rupees per year. During the last month of September, overseas Pakistanis sent a foreign exchange of $806.12 million and until September, this amount of foreign exchange sent by the overseas Pakistan has risen to $2.332 billion. Last year, overseas Pakistanis sent $1.88 billion to Pakistan without imposing any humiliating conditions. The same Pakistanis sent $780.55 million in August. All these figures have been obtained from the State Bank.

Failure of Pakistani Diplomats
The people whose interests are not associated with Pakistan do not work for Pakistan's interests. If this was the case, what was the point of so much secrecy in the matter? This bill is our failure even without the conditions.

The agreement was made for a 10-year strategic partnership, which was reduced to five years and then conditions such as these were included in order to end it any year.

Operation in Waziristan
The government is more willing than the United States at present. I don't under stand why the government is in a hurry to start operations everywhere. The military conducted the Swat operation and gained success; the US and Indian agents were eliminated from there. The Swat operation did harm to the US and Indian interests. If the military conducts an operation in Waziristan, it should be in Pakistan's interests. It will be dangerous to send the military early into Waziristan without any preparations. Operation is not the solution to every problem. The Kerry-Lugar Bill has specifically targeted the Pakistani military. It is the greatest wish of India and Israel to make the ISI ineffective. These severe conditions have been included in this bill on their behest. If the United States makes this bill unconditional, it will face resentment from both India and Israel. India is making full use of the situation. China, on its part, has offered to supply Pakistan with the resources to deal with terrorism.