Power Crisis in Pakistan

Power crisis in Pakistan has taken a horrible form. In such a situation, voices are being raised from every side whether there is any solution to these problems. If yes, why is it not being implemented? The answer to this question is quite long, and terrible as well.
There are three types of natural resources available in Pakistan in such abundance that if they are exploited, the need for several coming centuries will be fulfilled. One of them is water, which is to some an extent being used in Pakistan. The other two resources are wind and coal, which have not yet been even touched.
China’s Support
Pakistan's eternal friend, China, has expertise on these two technologies. During the last one decade, it has overcome the power shortfall up to the level Pakistan is facing several times within months, not years. In Pakistan also, efforts are being made to do this, and China is also helping Pakistan in this regard. However, the World Bank is standing like an obstacle in the way. It neither implements that project, nor does it allow for it. It is a project of generating power through coal in Thar.
Until five years ago, it was not practicable to produce power through coal in Thar. However, the new technology of gasification has made the crude coal reservoir in Thar gold. Under the new technology, there is no need to dig the coal out of the earth nor is there any need to make stoves. Experts of the entire world agree that 50,000 MW power can be generated from the Thar coal in the next five centuries. Work had been commenced on the project a few years ago. The World Bank objected that if Pakistan produced power there, it would have a negative impact on India. However, India itself is a big country of producing power through coal.
Major Hurdle
In this research report, we have focused on as to why the World Bank has become a hurdle in Pakistan's way to produce the world's cheapest power. What types of plans are formed to meet the growing need of power in the world and how much time they take in implementation? We studied China as a model because it is a friend of Pakistan and also willing to help. In this report, we will also explain what is the cheapest and alternative energy in the entire world? What are the possibilities for it in Pakistan and if work is started on it in Pakistan, how time it will take? Besides talk with Pakistani scientists and experts on energy and economy, research reports carried in world journals were also consulted in preparation of the report.
If you travel along the rough road while moving from Islamkot to Seti Dera village near the Indian border Sindh's Thar desert, you will see official vehicles of the workers busy at the wells of Block 5 moving around. These people belong to the staff of Pakistan's distinguished scientist Dr Samar Mubarakmand and are striving to install 600-ft deep pipe in TP 9 well near Megi Jotar village. Digging of the well has been completed. As the work to put the pipe into the earth is completed, coal in the underground surface will be put on fire through the pipe. The coal reservoir will start burning fast, and from another pipe, gas will still start blowing out. And through this gas, Dr Mubarakmand will start producing power at a small power house established there. Hopefully, production of 100 MW power from that station will start within a few months.
Subsequently, 21 more wells will be dug in Block 5 and every well will produce gas. This would be the cheapest power produced in Pakistan. As for the per unit cost of this power, there are available reports of Planning Commission of Pakistan, Sindh Mines and Minerals Department and Dr Mubarakmand; but, these are Pakistani organizations, and we will refer to an impartial report, leaving these reports aside.
Oracle Coal Fields is a subcompany of Australia's biggest company, Regency Mines, which produces power through coal. It had expressed desire to work on the Thar coal reservoirs, and on getting permission, it got conducted a survey through its engineers. The feasibility report released by Oracle Coal Field explains that the power is generated by getting fire erupted under ground in Thar through the new technology of gasification, the project will take nearly one year in completion, and then power will be generated. It will cost four rupee per unit.
It merits a mention here that the power being used by us in Pakistan costs 10-12 rupees (PRe)per unit in average. This includes hydro power of WAPDA (Water and Power Development Authority) and Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) and also the power generated from gas and oil. However, the cost of the power generated through rental power houses is up to PRe 15 per unit.
The coal reservoirs in Thar Desert are 30 percent more than the gas resources in Pakistan. They had been discovered several decades ago, but it was almost impossible to bring them out. According to the report prepared by Dr Mubarakmand for the Planning Commission, the reason was that these coal reservoirs in Thar were 600-ft deep under ground. First, there is 150-ft deep sand and then sea water for another 150-ft, followed by 40-ft soil and again water for another 150 ft. Then, coal starts. Owing to the nearby Run of Kutch and the sea, water is available with so much quantity that it was not possible to dig out the coal. Five years ago, the Australian scientists introduced gasification technology to exploit such sort of reservoirs in the world, and the same technology is being used in Thar.
However, the question is whether Pakistan will succeed in producing power from these coal reservoirs. There does not seem any hurdle in the way technically. However, the World Bank is obstructing Pakistan to work on the project. It says that if Pakistan generates power from coal in Thar, it will harm India. In addition, it is compelling Pakistan to work on a long and costly project worth $6 billion. This project relates to changing of gas pipelines and upgradation of Tarbella Dam. It will not benefit considerably in power generation and Pakistan will come under the debt burden of another $6 billion. In addition to Dr Mubarakmand, the World Bank itself confirms it. We will give its detail in the coming lines.
How can the World Bank prevent a company to establish a power house in Thar? It is an interesting question, but prior to understand this, it is necessary to learn about the nature of the war being fought for power generation in Thar. A detailed information about the vast coal reservoirs in Thar had surfaced in 1990. Later, efforts were again made to dig out coal from these reservoirs, but in vain. The third and successful effort began two years ago in 2009. By that time, power generation from the coal under sea water had started in Australia. China was drilling at large scale in such neglected reservoirs, and the United States had also kicked off aggressive efforts towards this direction. This trend started in 2006, and the Pakistani scientists also became alert at that time. When the gasification technology turned mature, the Planning Commission of Pakistan also submitted its proposal about it to the Pakistani Government. It was immediately approved and work was started under the leadership of Dr Mubarakmand.
When we got information about it from the people in Islamkot and the nearby areas, they said that the government and some foreigners again started moving at the Coal Fields in late 2008 after a suspension of several years. This suggests that work on the Thar Coal Fields had been started in 2008. However, according to Sind Mines and Mineral Department's documents available to us, Thar Coal Field was divided into eight blocks and five of them were given to different companies on contract. The plan was that work will be carried out on the project at a fast pace and within a year, work will be completed on at least 400 wells. It was not very difficult. The exact location of the coal reservoirs had already been identified in a survey. Even over 700 points had also been marked to dig wells in the eight blocks.
Divided Blocks
As we said above that the Thar Coal Field had been divided into eight blocks in the early 2009. The Block No 2 was given to Sindh Coal Mining Company and Engro Chemicals Company. These two companies were to complete the drilling process there in a year and generate 1,200 MW power. These were preliminary tasks, which had to be completed in one year. And for the purpose, 10 percent wells had to be dug in every block, and the remaining wells were to be dug in the coming years. And in this way, the power production would continue increasing, as Oracle Coal Field while making a reference to Karachi has written:
On acquiring the Block 4 in Thar, Oracle signed agreements with Chinese companies so that the drilling process could be started at a fast pace. These companies are already working on such coal wells in China. Second, we have also signed an agreement with KESC, which is facing a shortfall of 500 MW in Karachi at present. According to the agreement singed with the KESC, we will provide it with 300 MW cheap power. Under this accord, it would present us a feasibility report of 300 MW power plant. This plant would be established in Thar. In order to take the power to Karachi, grid line already exists there. In the next phase, as we dig more wells, we will continue increasing power production.
By the end of 2009, everything was moving on rightly in accordance to the schedule. All the companies had started creating their respective environment to work in every block. Dr Murtaza Mughal, president of Economy Watch think tank in Pakistan, conducted a thorough research into it in order to know as to what is the significance to generate power under Thar coal project and if the government can complete this project with its resources. According to Dr Murtaza's report, as it was a mega project and it was being implemented with the foreign collaboration, the Pakistani Government and the Sind Government had allowed all companies to seek funds from foreign agencies with the Pakistani Government's guarantee. Projects of big dams, power generation and related to digging out coal or producing power from it are completed with the loan from the world loan lending agencies in the entire world including Pakistan. So on the survey for the Thar Coal project too, the companies and the Pakistan government spent their resources; however, for project production, decision was taken to acquire funds from the World Bank.
International Aid
Earlier also, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank had been investing on big energy projects in Pakistan, or at least they give guarantee for it, on which basis, investment on these projects is made. The total required funds for power generation through gasification at the Thar Coal Field are PRe 600 billion.
To collect this amount, a conference was convened in Islamabad in late 2009. In addition to the World Bank, representatives of other world financial organizations and companies working on Thar Coal project also participated. When the conference started, the Pakistan officials got surprised, as the World Bank representatives had taken a U-turn.

99th Indian Science Congress

The five-day 99th Indian Science Congress was held in Bhubaneswar (Orissa, officially Odisha since November 2011) on January 3, 2011. The Congress, which was attended by approximately 15,000 delegates, including 12 Nobel laureate scientists, from across the globe, including scientists and policymakers, was inaugurated by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Prof Geetha Bali, general president of the Indian Science Congress Association, presided over the inaugural session of the Congress
The Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology (KIIT) and the National Institute of Science Education and Research (NISER) jointly hosted the Congress, the largest gathering of the scientific community. The focal theme of the five-day scientific extravaganza is “Science and technology for inclusive innovation — Role of women”.
India’s Research and Development
Pointing out that India’s Research and Development (R&D) spending as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had been ‘low and stagnant’, the prime minister made a strong pitch for increasing it to at least 2 per cent of the GDP from the current level of less than 1 per cent. He said: “This can only be achieved if the industry, which contributes about one-third of the total R&D expenditure today, increases its contribution significantly.”
The prime minister made a frank assessment of the country’s progress in science and technology area, highlighted the lacunae in the policies and implementation and called for greater alignment of the S&T sector with the inclusive development needs of the country.
Decade of Innovations
Stating that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government had declared 2010-20 as the ‘Decade of Innovations’, he appealed to scientists and policy makers to use the research-based knowledge productively for social benefit. “For a country grappling with the challenges of poverty and development, the over-riding objective of a comprehensive and well-considered policy for science, technology and innovation should be to support the national objective of faster, sustainable and inclusive development,” the Prime Minister said.
Coinciding with the mega event, he announced that the Centre was considering a proposal to build national capacity and capability in supercomputing to be implemented by the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bangalore, at an estimated cost of Rs 5,000 crore. Another proposal to establish a Neutrino Observatory in Tamil Nadu with an investment of Rs. 1,350 crore was also under consideration.

Bangladesh To Set Up Nuclear Plant

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has provided Bangladesh the assurance to assist in establishing nuclear power station in Rooppur. Recently, IAEA Director General Eukia Amano assured the issue in a meeting with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. It is to mention that the proposal of building nuclear power station in Rooppur was approved in the national parliament on 9 December 2010. Meanwhile during Sheikh Hasina's tour to Russia, a mutual agreement was signed between two countries regarding establishment of nuclear power plant in Bangladesh. According to the source, the proposed power station in Rooppur is expected to produce 1,000 MW of power per year at a cost of 100 billion takas (Tk). It is to be mentioned here that the preliminary estimate of establishing nuclear plants in different countries ends up in few times higher than the projected cost. However, a power station producing 250 MW power costs Tk 12 billion. That means, with Tk 100 billion, eight power stations of this sort can be developed where in aggregate 2,000 MW of power can be generated.
Expensive and Risky Venture
In addition, from the estimate that International Energy Agency (IEA) has given on establishment cost of power stations based on coal, gas, and nuclear materials, it can be assumed that the construction cost of nuclear power stations is much higher. As per the estimates provided by IEA, a 250 MW coal based power station costs Tk 17.75 billion. That means, with Tk 100 billion, six power stations of this sort can be developed where in aggregate 1,400 MW of power can be generated. In addition, as per the IEA's estimates, a 250 MW gas based power station costs Tk 10.65 billion.
So, with the said fund, nine power stations generating 250 MW of power can be established. Besides, the establishment cost for solar and wind based power stations are lesser. Moreover, it has been found in different researches that the management cost of nuclear power station is few times higher than that of the power stations based on oil, coal, gas, water, wind, or solar energy. There is no risk of health hazards. Then why is Bangladesh moving toward this expensive and risky venture?
Matter of Honor for Country
The energy adviser to the prime minister, Tawfiq-E-Elahi Chowdhury said that it was a matter of honor for the nation to build a nuclear power station. In the same week, Yafes Osman state minister for science, information and communication technology, said that although Bangladesh is in earthquake risk zone, the nuclear power station in Rooppur will be built with the capability to persist earthquake measuring up to 10 in Richter Scale. He could not inform anything on whether any research has been conducted regarding the issue or on what scientific basis he provided the information. Normally, question has arisen on the suitability of such project costing Tk 100 billion. Extensive debate on nuclear wastages, and financial and health risk was going on prior to the current debate. Debate was going on over different aspects of profit and loss, excessive operating costs, disposal of nuclear wastages, and health risks associated with this nuclear power plant costing four times higher than the other means of power generation. However, the Bangladesh Government is ignoring the opinions of the specialists and the general people; this is a serious risk not only to the current generation but also to the future generation. The critical picture we find from the history and the present phenomenon tends that one such project is sufficient to destroy Bangladesh.
Dr Mahbub Ullah, professor at Development Studies Department in Dhaka University, said that the burning issue was whether it would be appropriate to carry on the agreement with Russia regarding establishment of nuclear power plant. Bangladesh is a very densely populated country. In such a country, if any explosion happens because of human error or natural calamity, it would be impossible to save people from the radiation that will be generated. In one side, many people will die instantly; on the other hand the curse of radiation is to be carried out for generations. Because of this curse, birth of retarded children and the severity of incurable diseases like cancer will grow to such an extent that it will be impossible for Bangladesh to bear. We must have to be careful after the incidents occurred in Japan and Chernobyl.
Fear of Devastation
Another source says that, taking the issues like Uranium mining, building nuclear reactor, cooling the towers, transportation of nuclear wastages under consideration, there is no doubt among the scientists that nuclear power plant endangers the atmosphere, environment and the animals. Nuclear power plants were excluded from Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Through a research in 2004, John William and Phillip Smith have shown that a nuclear power plant emits one third Green House Gas than a modern natural gas-based power station. In addition to few thousand times harmful Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) is released from the Carbon-Dioxide of nuclear power stations. Alleged for environment pollution, CFC was proscribed internationally in "Montreal Protocol." Although every year the nuclear reactors emit around a trillion Curie (unit of radiation) radio-active isotopes in the atmosphere. Neutral gases such as Krypton, Xenon, and Argon are in the list of those isotopes. These isotopes are dissolvable in the fats and can be transferred into the fatty tissues of the body including the genital organs through inhalation of the people residing in the adjacent areas of a reactor. Moreover, Gamma ray that radiates from the radioactive atoms can create sudden impacts on ovary and the sperm that may cause genetic diseases. There is a hydrogen isotope named Tritium that creates radioactive water after reaction with oxygen. This water may go into the DNA molecules of human body through skins, lungs, and digestive system that may end into disaster.
In 2008, the German Government conducted a research on the children residing in the adjacent areas of 16 of their commercial nuclear power plants. The finding of the research was that the closer you go to the nuclear plant, the higher the risk becomes of children getting attacked in cancer, especially leukemia. The research also shows that the risk of children residing within 5-km circumference of the nuclear power station getting attacked in leukemia is almost double than that of the children living elsewhere. It is found in the research that in the localities adjacent to the nuclear reactor, death rate in breast cancer is 26-28 persons per hundred thousand; whereas the average rate of death in breast cancer is 20-22 persons per hundred thousand. This research has been conducted in the United States that produces the maximum amount of nuclear power in the current age. In the research of Energy Department in the United States, it was found that the death rate in breast cancer has grown 37 percent from 1950-54 to 1985-89 in the areas near to the oldest nuclear plants; whereas throughout America, on an average the same rate increased by only 1 percent.
On 26 April 1986, one of the four reactors exploded in a nuclear power plant in the Chernobyl of Kiev city in former Soviet Union. Radioactive molecules spread out in Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, and many other regions of Eastern Europe. Chernobyl city is abandoned till now. As per the updated information, the overall loss in the Chernobyl accident crossed $100 billion. It took $4 billion only to close down the power plant.
A nuclear accident occurred in Three Mile Island of Pennsylvania in United States on 28 March of 1979. After that accident, the United States has not built any more nuclear power plants till now. Immediately after the Three Mile Island accident demand was raised to ban nuclear power plant in the Sweden Referendum in 1980. After the Chernobyl incident in 1986, everyone thought that the days of nuclear power plants are over. Germany not only stopped making new nuclear power plants but also closing down the expired plants. Belgium, Taiwan, and Japan are also gradually moving away from nuclear power production. Even the people of France that get 77 percent of their power from nuclear power are immensely pressurizing their government to close down their nuclear power stations.
In May 2000, the Aangra-1 nuclear plant of Brazil emitted thousands of gallons of radioactive saline water since their machines frequently used to get out of order and this news has not been published in Brazil. The company in charge of management of the plant did not inform the government. As a result plenty of people were exposed to health risk.
Germany closed down seven of their nuclear plants after the devastation in Japan. However, some other countries including France and the Philippines closed down few nuclear power plants prior to the incident in Japan.
Importing Nuclear Power Plant
When everyone is closing down nuclear plants one after another, the Bangladesh Government is planning to be "honored" by building nuclear power plant. Bangladesh wants to import nuclear power plant of model VVR-1000 from Russia. Russia will only sell reactor and its raw material Uranium. Even if we disregard the overall risk including health and financial aspects, question remains whether Bangladesh has the capability to install, operate, and maintain the nuclear power plant that it is going to purchase from Russia. The source of fuel for producing nuclear power production is Uranium. It is questionable that why Bangladesh is trying to generate nuclear power without having the capability to process the raw material of Uranium.
The one time investment for installing nuclear power plant is huge. Moreover the estimate in the beginning does not remain fixed. The amount of investment increases as the days go by. Bangladesh will have to avail suppliers' credit for the nuclear power plant. Until today, in all countries, including Bangladesh that initiated projects availing suppliers' credit or credits from different banks and donor agencies, the ruler class was benefited; people have become more indebted.
If we see the example of Brazil, the establishment cost of their first nuclear power plant established in Rio de Janeiro in 1970 was $320 million. In 1983, after the installation of the plant, total expenditure stood $2.10 billion. In 1983, the establishment cost of their second nuclear plant was estimated to be $1.60 billion. After 18 years of the stipulated time, its cost became $10 billion. It took $20 billion to finish only 35 percent of the third nuclear plant. Later on, the Brazilian Government adjourned the project.
Possibility of Mass Destruction
It is not possible for a third world country like Bangladesh to check the probable mass destruction arising out of any accidents in the nuclear power plant. A developed country like Japan even fails to avoid the crisis in the nuclear power stations. The bigger accidents like Chernobyl and Three Mile Island took place in the countries standing in the apex in terms of technological advancement. All these countries developed nuclear power plants based on their own skills. It cannot even be imagined that a sophisticated technology like nuclear power plant will run smoothly in a country like Bangladesh where simple power stations based on water, oil, and gas frequently get out of order and remain unfixed for years.
However, not only the nuclear power stations of Bangladesh, it is also necessary to close down the power stations of India and Pakistan. In India, 4,780 MWs of power is generated in six of their power stations utilizing 20 nuclear reactors. Five more power plants are under construction. There are three nuclear power plants in Pakistan from which 2.4 percent of the total power is produced. The concerned people in India have been protesting for long against their nuclear power plants.