Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Terror Strikes Pakistan

In a brazen attack on a bus carrying Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, the venue for the second Test match, a dozen masked gunmen wounded six players and a British coach and killed at least six Pakistanis, including five police escort on March 4, 2009. Among those killed included the driver of the bus in which Australian umpires were travelling and which was immediate behind the team bus. The members of the visiting team, who suffered injuries include: Captain Mahela Jayawardene, Vice-Captain Kumar Sangakara, Thilan Samaraweera, Tharanga Paranavithana, Ajantha Mendis, Thilina Thushara and Suranga Lokumal. The team ended its Pakistan tour and flew back home. This is a chilling reminder of the precarious position in which Pakistan is currently placed. That a dozen desperadoes armed with hand-grenades, rocket-launchers and Kalashnikovs could penetrate the security cordon despite intelligence inputs of an impending strike shows how deeply Pakistan is in the grip of terror.
The attack, the first of its kind in the history of world cricket, sent shock waves through the cricketing fraternity evoking wide-spread condemnation from leaders of the cricketing nations, their national boards and players. It brings to mind the gunning down of 11 Israeli athletes during the Munich Olympics in 1972. Unable to play a single Test match in 2008, Pakistan suffered a painful kind of cricket isolation before, in a generous show of solidarity, another South Asian country agreed to tour.
At least twelve attackers were involved in the daring ambush and all of them escaped after carrying out their operation with lightening speed that was likened to deadly terrorist attack in Mumbai attack on November 26, 2008.
The attackers, two of whom were shown in TV pictures carrying backpacks, appeared well trained. It was a sophisticated operation that was launched by one attacker firing a cricket-propelled grenade to create a diversion before others approached to spray bullets on the convoy from all sides of the roundabout. They later sped away, leaving grenades and rocket launchers in a stolen car parked near the scene of the attack.
Troubled Venue for Sports
Had Sri Lanka not agreed to fill in for India’s cancelled tour of Pakistan, their cricketers could have been saved of the terror attack. India were originally scheduled to be in Pakistan for a Test tour in January-February but the trip was cancelled after the 26/11 terror strikes in Mumbai. The Indian Government refused to permit the country's cricket team to travel to the troubled country citing security fears.
Pakistan, deprived of international cricket on home turf for long after steady refusals by teams like Australia and New Zealand to play there, desperately searched for a replacement.
Sri Lanka Cricket (SLC), then headed by Arjuna Ranatunga, stepped in to help the beleaguered nation’s cause and agreed to a split tour, which now stands cancelled after the attacks. Ranatunga was subsequently sacked from his post but the decision to tour Pakistan by the SLC headed by him was not revoked.
The Lankans played a One-Day Series in January 2009, which was free of any untoward incident, and came back for the Test Series in the middle of February 2009 after losing an equally hastily scheduled One-Day Series against India at home.
The successful conduct of the split tour by Jayawardene’s men would have helped Pakistan convince the cricketing fraternity that the country is safe to play. But the images of gunmen going on a firing spree right outside a stadium and getting away with it as well, has all but shattered the immediate future of Pakistan as a sporting venue.
Much as Pakistan would strive to control the damage on the diplomatic front, there can be little doubt that the country would be looked upon with suspicion and fear as a venue for international sporting events. As a country that has experienced the forfeiture of cricket matches and the abandonment of tours owing to LTTE terror attacks and threats, Sri Lanka could empathise with Pakistan. Australia and West Indies chose to forgo their first round matches in Sri Lanka during the 1996 World Cup; in 1987, a New Zealand Test series was truncated following a car bomb attack in Colombo. With Pakistan chosen to co-host the cricket World Cup in 2011 with India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, the terror attack in Lahore has effectively killed its chances of being retained as a venue.
LTTE-ISI Nexus
Security agencies in India have pointed out that the attack on Sri Lankan cricket team had the hallmark of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). Sources said it was typical of the LeT to carry out such attacks as it was feeling the heat after a massive crackdown on its leaders. The attack also has proved that the outfit is capable of striking at will, despite government’s claims that the former’s top leadership has been dismantled.
The LeT could have planned a suicide attack but that would not have resulted in the same kind of international attention. The LeT also sent a strong message to Pakistan, which under increasing international pressure, especially after the 26/11, has begun a crackdown on the outfit’s camps.
As of now, agencies believe the attackers could have been from the Murdike camp of the LeT. This is one of the major camps of the Lashkar and due to its proximity to Lahore, the men could have been sent in from that camp.
As far as LTTE’s role is concerned, there may be links between LTTE and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (known as the Harkat ul Ansar before 1997), a member of the International Islamic Front of the Al Qaeda. In the past, LTTE ships had facilitated heroin smuggling and arms from the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. The LTTE-ISI nexus is also an established fact. So Tigers cannot do something, which would embarrass the ISI on its home turf.
Fight Against Terrorism
Terrorism was a common enemy that had dismayed people in Pakistan as it had Indians. It had reversed the bilateral negotiations between the two countries and set back the forward movement on various issues made under the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) framework.
The 12-member delegation is visiting India as part of the joint signature campaign initiated by civil society organisations in India and Pakistan simultaneously. The campaign, launched after the Mumbai terror attack, was against terrorism and war posturing and for promoting cooperation and peace between the two countries. Hundreds of organisations working on a large number of issues in different parts of the sub-continent participated.
The issues highlighted are zero-tolerance to religious terrorism in the two countries, setting up of joint investigation agencies and carrying out probes by mutual assistance and totally ruling out war as a possibility as it was not in anyone’s interest. Further it demands from the SAARC member States ratification of a convention signed in 1987 to fight terrorism in the SAARC region.
Need of the Hour
In fact, targeting of Sri Lankan cricketers by terrorists is even more bizarre, especially when one considers that this team was game to play in a country that many other teams like England were avoiding because of security reasons. So is this the end of Pakistani cricket? Considering that the existence of the State of Pakistan is increasingly coming into question, this would certainly seem so. But there is a way of bypassing the old ‘quarantine’ route of dealing with a dangerous place like Pakistan. Pakistani players could play in ‘neutral’ venues such as Sharjah (The UAE), thereby sparing its players and their fans the consequence of a total boycott. A question mark does hang over the fate of cricket in the subcontinent in general.
The urgent need of the hour is that concerted pressure must be brought to bear on Pakistan by the international community to dismantle its terror networks. As the attacks on the bus carrying the Sri Lankan team show, Pakistan itself is paying a big price for harbouring them. It isnot only good on its way towards becoming a sports pariah, investors and tourists will largely shun it as well, making any prospects of economic rescue bleak unless it does something about those safe havens.










Tuesday, March 3, 2009

New Foreign Trade Policy (2009-10)






The Union Commerce Minister Kamal Nath has unveiled some export-friendly measures in the Foreign Trade Policy for 2009-10. The policy states that India has scaled down its export target to around $170-175 billion for the current fiscal in the wake of current economic crisis. The policy is confident of achieving the target of $200 billion in exports during 2009-10.
As per the new policy, India will suffer less and recover fast from the global crisis. This year, i.e., during 2008-09, India did achieve an export growth of 30.9 per cent till September 2008, but there has been a set back recently due to the global recession. The increased economic activity has resulted in generation of around 140 lakh new jobs in the export sector.
The country’s economy is an open economy and not only its exports are rising but its imports have also risen. The average annual growth rate of imports has been 34.1 per cent and the total value of imports in 2007-08 was $251.56 billion.
Short-Term Supplement
The review of Foreign Trade Policy is in the nature a short-term supplement to the five-year framework (2004-09) that ran concurrently with the tenure of the United Progressive Alliance government. During most of the first four years, Indian exports fared remarkably well benefiting from the global trade boom.
The share of exports in the Gross Product Product (GDP) increased to 15 per cent, which — though not comparable to those of China and many other East and South East Asian countries — seemed set to grow further.
However, the picture changed drastically with the sharp downturn in the global economy. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) and other international institutions have lowered the global trade targets for 2009. Indian merchandise exporters are under extraordinary pressure as global demand is set to slump alarmingly.
India’s export growth has been negative in recent months and the Government has scaled down the export target for the current year to $175 billion from $200 billion. For 2009-10, the target has been set at $200 billion.
A Welcome Step
Welcoming the new polcy, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) President A Sakthivel said these measures would help exporters in reducing transaction costs. He also welcomed the extension of export obligation period from 24 months to 36 months for advance authorisation and carrying forward of export obligation of 2008-2009 to 2010 under EPCG scheme.
While the PHD Chamber welcomed the procedural simplifications announced by way of trade facilitation measures, it has been a further disappointment for exporters who were looking forward to a stimulus package to help them meet the current global crisis.
President of the FICCI Harsh Pati Singhania said, “facilitation measures are indeed necessary for simplifying procedures and reducing transaction costs. They will be critical in giving the exporting community some comforts in the backdrop of current slowdown in global demand.”
ASSOCHAM President Sajjan Jindal welcomed customs duty reduction in EPCG Scheme. “Extension of DEPB for exporters is also a welcome measure that exporters will cherish,” he said, adding that the special package of Rs 325 crore for leather and textiles was far below the expectations of India Inc.
Way for Fiscal Concessions
Like the previous annual supplements to the Foreign Trade, the latest one paves the way for fiscal concessions and simplified trade procedures. For instance, income tax exemption for 100 per cent Export-Oriented Units (EOUs) has been extended for another 12 months.
There have been attempts at merging some export promotion schemes and speeding up approvals under the various entitlement schemes. Two towns, Surat and Bhilwara, have been recognised as centres of export excellence in diamond and textiles respectively. Some of the other major concerns of exporters are beyond the scope of Trade Policy. Development of world class infrastructure and global hubs for specialised manufactures — such as jewellery and handicrafts — requires the active support of other branches of the Centre as well as the State Governments.
The Highlights of the Foreign Trade Policy
* Customs duty under export promotion capital goods scheme cut to three per cent from five per cent
* Benefits under Duty Entitlement Pass Book (DEPB) scheme to be extended without waiting for realisation of exports proceeds
* Special incentive of Rs 325 crore for various sectors like handmade carpets, leather and technical textiles from April 1,2009.
* Threshold limit for recognition as premier trading house reduced to Rs 7,500 crore
* Benefit of five per cent under "focus product, focus market" scheme for export of handmade carpets
* Authorised persons of gems and jewellery units can personally carry imported gold of up to 10 kg
* Obligation under export promotion capital goods scheme extended till 2009-10 for sops availed during 2008-09
* The procedural formalities for claiming duty drawback refund and for getting refund of terminal excise duty for deemed exports is further simplified
* Opening of an independent office of DGFT at Srinagar
* Re-imbursement of additional duty of excise levied on fuel would also be admissible for EoUs.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Political Instability in Pakistan

Pakistan faces a new chapter in political instability with the Supreme Court disqualification of Pakistan Muslim League (N) leader Nawaz Sharif and his brother and Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif from holding or contesting for any public office. All indications are that the coming conflict between the Sharifs and the Pakistan People’s Party, particularly its leader Asif Ali Zardari, will be bitterly fought.
The Court’s verdict disqualifying Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif from electoral politics could not have been different. It was only to be expected after the former Prime Minister recently declared his resolve to participate in the proposed Long March by lawyers. The Court’s ruling is seen as having the stamp of President Asif Ali Zardari, who had been threatening to use this most potent weapon if the Sharif brothers did not stay away from the lawyers’ agitation.
Restoring Judicial Status Quo
President Zardari, too, is in a way committed to restoring the judicial status quo ante as he had signed an accord with Nawaz Sharif during the run-up to the elections. They had struck the deal when both wanted the Musharraf regime to go. But now Zardari cannot afford to get annulled all that the former military ruler did.
Former President Pervez Musharraf had issued the National Reconciliation Order (NRO), declaring all the cases against Zardari and his late wife, Benazir Bhutto, as withdrawn. If the Zardari-Sharif accord is implemented in full, Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry will begin to preside over the apex court again, and he is believed to be determined to strike down all the controversial decisions, including the NRO, associated with the Musharraf regime.
Premature Demise
Nawaz Sharif, who holds Zardari squarely responsible for the disqualification has already indicated that the coming weeks and months could be a throwback to the no-holds barred battles between the PPP and the PML(N) of the 1990s. Those battles always resulted in a premature demise for the Government of the day, with either a direct or behind the scenes military intervention towards regime change.
In the strictly legal sense, the Supreme Court ruling cannot be faulted. Nawaz Sharif was convicted by the Musharraf regime in 2000 on charges of attempting to hijack a plane in October 1999.
The plane was bringing Musharraf, then the army chief, back to Pakistan on the day he ousted the Sharif Government., the then Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif was convicted in a separate case on charges of defaulting on a bank loan. Though the sentence was pardoned in return for the Sharifs accepting exile to Saudi Arabia, the convictions remain.
Sharif has his own game plan — create a condition for fresh elections, which suits him because of his relatively higher popularity rating. The power struggle between Zardari and Sharif, which has come into the open, may derail democracy once again. All this may lead to a bitter fight between the PPP and the PML (N) as it happened during the 1990s. That could mean an invitation to the army to recapture power as well as creation of conditions to be exploited by extremists.
Countrywide Protest
The PML (N) has launched a countrywide protest against the Supreme Court verdict disqualifying former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif from taking part in elections. The court cases against the Sharifs had no meaning as these were registered at the instance of Gen Pervez Musharraf soon after he came to power by staging a coup.
By “managing” the judgement that suits his political objectives, Mr Zardari has earned the dubious reputation of “implementing the Musharraf agenda”. He has exposed himself to the charge of keeping the Sharif brothers away from power, as General Musharraf did.
With an open, unrestrained and headlong confrontation between the two biggest political parties of Pakistan now inevitable, the current Government is bound to be buffeted by political storms. To protect its flanks, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) will be forced to seek the support of the military establishment on one side and the quintessential establishment political party, the PML(Q), on the other. The end result of this could be the dislodging of the PPP-led coalition and/or another derailment of the democratic process. At the very least, the military will once again start playing a pivotal role in deciding the course of Pakistani politics.
The resulting instability could lead to consequences far worse than what Pakistan has experienced during such episodes in the past. It is not the same country that it was in the 1990s. A weak civilian Government has virtually surrendered to Taliban militants in a region of the North-West Frontier Province. The tribal areas were already militant pocket boroughs. Jihadists are making inroads into all parts of the country. Political warfare is bound to further paralyse governance, providing opportunities for militancy and extremism to flourish, and aggravate the economic crisis. Under the circumstances, the people of Pakistan are the real losers.