Delhi Assembly Elections 2015: AAP Scripts History, Gives Big Jolt to BJP, Wipes Out Congress

Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) scored a landslide victory in the Delhi Assembly elections on February 10 by winning 67 of the 70 seats leaving Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with only three and completely wiping out Congress which failed to win even a single seat – a first. On a vertical slide since May 2014, the Congress hit the rock bottom in the Capital with all its 70 candidates losing the elections. Remember that Congress, which had ruled Delhi for 15 years until December 2013.

A record 67.14 per cent turnout was recorded in the elections on February 7 in which a total of 673 candidates participated. The number of candidates from recognized national and state parties were 296 while 183 candidates belonged to registered parties. There were 194 Independent nominees.

Thought to be a close competitor, the BJP could not garner a double-digit tally, failing miserably to read the signs that were evident from the buzzing AAP poll booths on election day itself. The BJP, which has been out of power in Delhi for the past 16 years, made a gamble by bringing in former IPS officer Kiran Bedi into the party and made her their chief ministerial candidate which is said to have triggered discontent among the party leaders and ranks.

To call the emphatic Delhi win of the AAP merely “historic” is to underestimate the contextual significance of the moment, arguably whose clearest meaning is the contemptuous rejection of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s urgent appeals to the Delhi electorate to vote his party in so that his hands may be strengthened.

Positive Aspect

The surprising part of the result is not the victory of the AAP but the huge margin. This clearly indicates that this is not a negative vote. There are two important reasons for the AAP victory. The first is that a great majority of Delhi – especially the deprived – found the 49-day government to be one which had yielded positive results: petty exactions by police and government personnel had disappeared, electricity and water bills were favorably impacted for the consumer. Retrospectively this seems to have produced a sense that AAP provided a representative party of governance and was not just a party of Opposition.

The second important feature is that AAP not only managed to survive the Lok Sabha verdict but actually consolidated their organization. Elected councilors implemented schemes with their allotted money and the conviction of volunteers was energized again by the Delhi Dialogues which brought them into close contact with local needs of especially the underprivileged and produced local manifestos. All of this brought back the involvement with practical activity and the belief in using the political machinery to serve the nation, which is the real core of the conviction that propels the AAP volunteers.

Political Earthquake

International media have described AAP's stunning electoral triumph over the BJP in Delhi as a "political earthquake," taking a jibe at Prime Minister Modi's meteoric rise to the helm by saying -- "After all, what goes up must come down."

The New York Times dubbed BJP's defeat, less than a year after the party's victory in the polls at the centre, as a "smaller political earthquake." "Less than a year after Modi won a historic victory to become India's new prime minister, a smaller political earthquake struck the capital, as partial results indicated that Modi's governing party had been crushed in local elections by a young political organization led by an anti-corruption campaigner (Kejriwal)," the daily highlighted.

The Washington Post termed it as "stunning defeat" at the hands of the "upstart anti-corruption Common Man Party." "The contest was widely viewed as a measure of Modi's political clout here. The bitterly fought election for control of the legislative assembly mark the first political setback to Modi's BJP since he became prime minister in May 2014," the paper stated.

Advantage Women Candidates

Six women leaders have managed to secure a place in the 70-member House, a meager eight percent even as fairer sex accounts for almost 45 percent of the population in the national capital. There were 63 women candidates in this election as against 71 in 2013.

While as many as 66 women candidates were in fray, all the six winners, who have made it to the Assembly, belong to the AAP. They are Rakhi Birla, Bandna Kumari, Saritha Singh, Alka Lambha, Pramila Tokas and Bhavna Gaur.

Interestingly, the three women candidates elected to the Delhi Assembly in 2013 polls were also from AAP -Birla, Bandana Kumari and Veena Anand.

Birla, who was the Cabinet minister for Women and Child, Social Welfare and Languages in Delhi during AAP's 49-day regime, contested from Mangol Puri constituency in West Delhi and defeated Congress' Raj Kumar Chauhan by 22,699 votes.

Elected as an MLA from the Shalimar Bagh constituency in the 2013 Assembly polls, Bandana Kumari emerged victorious by defeating another woman candidate, BJP's Rekha Gupta.

Alka Lamba, a former leader of Congress-affiliated National Students Union of India (NSUI) who had joined AAP in 2013, won from Chandni Chowk constituency, defeating yet another women candidate of BJP, Suman Kumar Gupta, by more than 18,000 votes.

Another women who emerged victorious was Parmila Tokas, an independent municipal councilor. She was fielded from RK Puram constituency, where the party had pitted Shazia Ilmi in the last elections. Ilmi left AAP in 2014 and ultimately joined hands with BJP just before the Delhi elections. AAP's student wing president Sarita Singh won from the Rohtash Nagar Assembly constituency with a margin of 7,874 votes.

While women safety, which is a key concern in the national capital, featured widely in various parties' poll manifestos, when it came to fielding women candidates, the they did not opt for them. A total of 19 women candidates were fielded by three major political parties in the contest – AAP, BJP, and Congress.

BJP had given tickets to maximum number of seven women candidates including its chief ministerial nominee Kiran Bedi, former Congress leader Krishna Tirath and youth face Nupur Sharma.

All the six women candidates of AAP emerged victorious. The least number of women candidates was fielded by the Congress which had given tickets to just five.

Assessment

Undoubtedly, people have given a historic mandate to the AAP this time, carrying it on its shoulders to an absolute majority in the Assembly. This is a sign that people do not want pomp and show, and show of power, but results.

It is a vote not just in favor of Kejriwal but also against the arrogant Modi-Amit Shah duo. The Shah strategy of winning elections has failed. In fact, BJP-Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) workers were annoyed by top-down decision making. An outsider, Bedi's choice as a chief ministerial candidate was a mistake the leadership still does not accept.

Coming on top of a massive hype, the one thing BJP has delivered is a disturbing communal atmosphere in the country and little else that might be tangible. Judging from the kind of people who voted AAP, this factor may just have been decisive, with the middle class intelligentsia making the difference on the margin. The disaster the BJP has encountered would place it on the back foot in the coming state election over the next two years.

Obama Visits India: Bilateral Cooperation Enhances

India and the United States on January 25 announced policy resolution on two key issues paving the way for a nuclear trade within the ambit of domestic laws and international obligations. The pact ends a six-year old stalemate in operationalizing the path-breaking civil nuclear agreement. The agreement was signed in New Delhi by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the visiting US President Barack Obama, who was the chief guest at the 2015 Republic Day parade. The 123 or civil nuclear deal was inked between India and the United States in October 2008. The pact, however, failed to deliver business for US companies.

Breakthrough in Civil Nuclear Deal

There was a “breakthrough” in civil nuclear agreement and both countries have sorted out the two pending issues. The American companies were concerned over the Indian nuclear liability laws that apply to the equipment suppliers in the event of an accident.  They have also demanded tracking of fuel supplied by the United States and other nations for the proposed nuclear power plants. While India will create an insurance pool to tackle the nuclear liability issue, on tracking it stated the matter will be dealt with under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards.

The civil nuclear deal was the centerpiece of our transformed relationship, which demonstrated new trust. It also created new economic opportunities and expanded our option for clean energy.

Primary among these is the Defense Technology Trade Initiative (DTTI) which not only intensifies military-to-military cooperation but also puts the spotlight on technology transfer and joint production, which India has been seeking with almost all its military partners.

The January 25 deal builds on the first plan that was signed in 2005 and provides the blueprint for India-US defense cooperation for the next 10 years. If the 2005 DTTI was historic for breaking the ice and laying the groundwork for an unprecedented partnership, the 2015 version marks a definite shift from a transactional relationship to a more organic one. In other words, if the past decade saw India sourcing an increasingly large proportion of its defense needs from the United States — by some estimates, India bought $10 billion worth of military hardware from the United States — the next decade will see the two countries sharing technology and co-producing weapons.

Delhi Declaration of Friendship

In addition to the major civil nuclear deal, both the Indian prime minister and the US president issued a 59-point statement encompassing the entire gamut of relationship, decided to renew the decade-old defense framework agreement for another

10 years and within it opened the defense technology and trade initiative. Both India and the United States issued a Delhi Declaration of Friendship — Shared Effort, Progress for All — in keeping with national principles and committing to hold regular summits with increased periodicity, elevate strategic dialogue, establish hotlines between the Indian prime minister and the US president and national security advisers, besides cooperating to develop joint ventures on strategically significant projects.

On clean energy, Washington is keen to work with New Delhi on the ambitious project of 100 gigawatt of solar energy by 2022 and air monitoring for megacities.

On Climate Change, the Indian prime minister said there was an urgent need to address the issue. He, however, said there was no pressure to work out an arrangement that the United States has with China.

Focus on Bilateral Ties

Noting that the multifaceted partnership between Washington and New Delhi is rooted in shared values of democracy and strong economic and people-to-people ties, the Indian prime minister and the US president elevated the bilateral relationship through their endorsement of a new India-US Delhi Declaration of Friendship, which builds on their September 30 Vision Statement by articulating tangible principles to guide ongoing efforts to advance mutual prosperity, a clean and healthy environment, greater economic cooperation, regional peace, security and stability for the larger benefit of humankind.

Joint Strategic Vision for Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region

India and the United States also issued a joint strategic vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region to support regional economic integration by accelerated infrastructure connectivity, safeguard maritime security in ensuring freedom of navigation and over flight throughout the region, especially in the South China Sea.

Terrorism Menace

Prime Minister Modi President Obama stressed the need for joint efforts to disrupt terror entities, including the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), D Company and the Haqqani Network, and asked Pakistan to bring the perpetrators of 26/11 attack to justice. Pakistan-based terror outfits that are not just a threat to India, but also spawn the jihadi network worldwide, are on the joint target list.

Obama said there should be no distinction between terror groups and pressed for countries to fulfill their commitment to wipe out terror safe havens.

Finally, the establishment of two hotlines — one between the two heads of Government and another between the two National Security Advisors — also speaks volumes about deepening cooperation between the two countries.

Agreement on Smart Cities

India and the United States signed three Memoranda of Understandings (MoUs) on January 26 to give a boost to the Center's flagship “smart cities” scheme. Washington has agreed to partner with Indian in developing three smart cities in Allahabad, Ajmer, and Visakhapatnam.

Three MoUs were signed by the representatives of United States Trade and Development Agency and the respective Chief Secretaries of State Governments of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh in the presence of Union Urban Development Minister M. Venkaiah Naidu.

As per the agreements, the United States will assist the cities in project planning, infrastructure development, feasibility studies and capacity building.

Trade and Business 

The US president has announced a slew of initiatives that included $4 billion in loans from US banks, $2 billion in financing for renewable energy projects in India and $1 billion from the Exim Bank of the United States for project financing. Executive action to help Indian techies who currently have to undergo a painful and agonizing process of obtaining H-1B visas, to get legal permanent status (LPR), was also on the cards

India and the United States were moving in the right direction and there was untapped potential to be realized. Bilateral trade between the two countries had increased 60 percent in the past couple of years to a record $100 billion, but India’s exports to the United States were still less than 2 percent of all US imports, he said welcoming the Modi government’s reforms agenda for making it easier to do business in India.

This has been made possible, of course, by smartly balanced laws that fully comply with India’s World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations on intellectual property while incorporating protections that support public health. These laws have ensured a strict review of patent applications to avoid spuriously granting monopolies on drugs that are not actually new or innovative or whole new patents on minor changes to existing drugs. India has also focused on its WTO obligations rather than implementing excessive IP rules that undermine health, such as “data exclusivity” which, in the United States, makes clinical trial data private to create a whole additional monopoly separate from patents that prevents approval for generic drugs for periods of time.

Needless to say, the major multinational pharmaceutical companies oppose India’s finely balanced intellectual property system and are trying to topple it. What is less understandable is why the Obama administration would be backing their drive.

Religious Freedom

Unveiling his sweeping vision for the future of the India-US ties, President Obama, at the conclusion of his three-day trip on January 27, suggested his country could be the “best partner" while underscoring the importance of religious freedom and tolerance for India's success.

Citing the Indian Constitution on the right to freedom of religion, he said: "Your Article 25 says all people are equally entitled to the freedom of conscience and have right to freely profess and practice and propagate religion. In both our countries, in all countries upholding freedom of religion is the utmost responsibility of the government but also the responsibility of every person... Every person has the right to practice his faith without any persecution, fear or discrimination. India will succeed so long it is not splintered on religious lines," Obama also said. The importance of the message strikes when seen in the backdrop of the controversy over "Ghar wapsi" program run by the RSS-Sangh Parivar as also complaints of attacks on a church in the city. Obama further said, “Around the world we have seen intolerance, violence, and terror perpetrated by those who profess to be standing for upholding their faith stating that all have to guard against any efforts to divide people on sectarian lines or any other things.”

The US president said, "In both our countries, in India and the United States, our diversity is our strength... your Constitution begins with the pledge to uphold the dignity of the individual. Our Declaration of Independence proclaims that all men are created equal.”

Characterizing the qualities of countries being world leaders, Obama added, was not about the size of the economies or the number of weapons but the ability to show the way and how they work together.